FRAX™ and the assessment of fracture probability in men and women from the UK

SUMMARY: A fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) is developed based on the use of clinical risk factors with or without bone mineral density tests applied to the UK. INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to apply an assessment tool for the prediction of fracture in men and women with the use of clinical risk factors (CRFs) for fracture with and without the use of femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD). The clinical risk factors, identified from previous meta-analyses, comprised body mass index (BMI, as a continuous variable), a prior history of fracture, a parental history of hip fracture, use of oral glucocorticoids, rheumatoid arthritis and other secondary causes of osteoporosis, current smoking, and alcohol intake 3 or more units daily. METHODS: Four models were constructed to compute fracture probabilities based on the epidemiology of fracture in the UK. The models comprised the ten-year probability of hip fracture, with and without femoral neck BMD, and the ten-year probability of a major osteoporotic fracture, with and without BMD. For each model fracture and death hazards were computed as continuous functions. RESULTS: Each clinical risk factor contributed to fracture probability. In the absence of BMD, hip fracture probability in women with a fixed BMI (25 kg/m(2)) ranged from 0.2% at the age of 50 years for women without CRF's to 22% at the age of 80 years with a parental history of hip fracture (approximately 100-fold range). In men, the probabilities were lower, as was the range (0.1 to 11% in the examples above). For a major osteoporotic fracture the probabilities ranged from 3.5% to 31% in women, and from 2.8% to 15% in men in the example above. The presence of one or more risk factors increased probabilities in an incremental manner. The differences in probabilities between men and women were comparable at any given T-score and age, except in the elderly where probabilities were higher in women than in men due to the higher mortality of the latter. CONCLUSION: The models provide a framework which enhances the assessment of fracture risk in both men and women by the integration of clinical risk factors alone and/or in combination with BMD

The Formation and Evolution of the First Massive Black Holes

The first massive astrophysical black holes likely formed at high redshifts (z>10) at the centers of low mass (~10^6 Msun) dark matter concentrations. These black holes grow by mergers and gas accretion, evolve into the population of bright quasars observed at lower redshifts, and eventually leave the supermassive black hole remnants that are ubiquitous at the centers of galaxies in the nearby universe. The astrophysical processes responsible for the formation of the earliest seed black holes are poorly understood. The purpose of this review is threefold: (1) to describe theoretical expectations for the formation and growth of the earliest black holes within the general paradigm of hierarchical cold dark matter cosmologies, (2) to summarize several relevant recent observations that have implications for the formation of the earliest black holes, and (3) to look into the future and assess the power of forthcoming observations to probe the physics of the first active galactic nuclei.Comment: 39 pages, review for "Supermassive Black Holes in the Distant Universe", Ed. A. J. Barger, Kluwer Academic Publisher

Vitamin D Status and Bone and Connective Tissue Turnover in Brown Bears (Ursus arctos) during Hibernation and the Active State

BACKGROUND: Extended physical inactivity causes disuse osteoporosis in humans. In contrast, brown bears (Ursus arctos) are highly immobilised for half of the year during hibernation without signs of bone loss and therefore may serve as a model for prevention of osteoporosis. AIM: To study 25-hydroxy-vitamin D (25OHD) levels and bone turnover markers in brown bears during the hibernating state in winter and during the active state in summer. We measured vitamin D subtypes (D₂ and D₃), calcitropic hormones (parathyroid hormone [PTH], 1,25-dihydroxy-vitamin D [1,25(OH)₂D]) and bone turnover parameters (osteocalcin, ICTP, CTX-I), PTH, serum calcium and PIIINP. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We drew blood from seven immobilised wild brown bears during hibernation in February and in the same bears while active in June. RESULTS: Serum 25-hydroxy-cholecalciferol (25OHD₃) was significantly higher in the summer than in the winter (22.8±4.6 vs. 8.8±2.1 nmol/l, two tailed p-2p = 0.02), whereas 25-hydroxy-ergocalciferol (25OHD₂) was higher in winter (54.2±8.3 vs. 18.7±1.7 nmol/l, 2p<0.01). Total serum calcium and PTH levels did not differ between winter and summer. Activated 1,25(OH)₂D demonstrated a statistically insignificant trend towards higher summer levels. Osteocalcin levels were higher in summer than winter, whereas other markers of bone turnover (ICTP and CTX-I) were unchanged. Serum PIIINP, which is a marker of connective tissue and to some degree muscle turnover, was significantly higher during summer than during winter. CONCLUSIONS: Dramatic changes were documented in the vitamin D₃/D₂ ratio and in markers of bone and connective tissue turnover in brown bears between hibernation and the active state. Because hibernating brown bears do not develop disuse osteoporosis, despite extensive physical inactivity we suggest that they may serve as a model for the prevention of this disease

Characterization of the Phytochelatin Synthase of Schistosoma mansoni

Treatment for schistosomiasis, which is responsible for more than 280,000 deaths annually, depends exclusively on the use of praziquantel. Millions of people are treated annually with praziquantel and drug resistant parasites are likely to evolve. In order to identify novel drug targets the Schistosoma mansoni sequence databases were queried for proteins involved in glutathione metabolism. One potential target identified was phytochelatin synthase (PCS). Phytochelatins are oligopeptides synthesized enzymatically from glutathione by PCS that sequester toxic heavy metals in many organisms. However, humans do not have a PCS gene and do not synthesize phytochelatins. In this study we have characterized the PCS of S. mansoni (SmPCS). The conserved catalytic triad of cysteine-histidine-aspartate found in PCS proteins and cysteine proteases is also found in SmPCS, as are several cysteine residues thought to be involved in heavy metal binding and enzyme activation. The SmPCS open reading frame is considerably extended at both the N- and C-termini compared to PCS from other organisms. Multiple PCS transcripts are produced from the single encoded gene by alternative splicing, resulting in both mitochondrial and cytoplasmic protein variants. Expression of SmPCS in yeast increased cadmium tolerance from less than 50 µM to more than 1,000 µM. We confirmed the function of SmPCS by identifying PCs in yeast cell extracts using HPLC-mass spectrometry. SmPCS was found to be expressed in all mammalian stages of worm development investigated. Increases in SmPCS expression were seen in ex vivo worms cultured in the presence of iron, copper, cadmium, or zinc. Collectively, these results indicate that SmPCS plays an important role in schistosome response to heavy metals and that PCS is a potential drug target for schistosomiasis treatment. This is the first characterization of a PCS from a parasitic organism

Long-Term Health Outcomes in Children Born to Mothers with Diabetes: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: To examine whether prenatal exposure to parental type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, or gestational diabetes is associated with an increased risk of malignant neoplasm or diseases of the circulatory system in the offspring. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a population-based cohort study of 1,781,576 singletons born in Denmark from 1977 to 2008. Children were followed for up to 30 years from the day of birth until the onset of the outcomes under study, death, emigration, or December 31, 2009, whichever came first. We used Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for the outcomes under study while adjusting for potential confounders. An increased risk of malignant neoplasm was found in children prenatally exposed to maternal type 2 diabetes (HR = 2.2, 95%CI: 1.5-3.2). An increased risk of diseases of the circulatory system was found in children exposed to maternal type 1 diabetes (HR = 2.2, 95%CI: 1.6-3.0), type 2 diabetes (HR = 1.4, 95%CI: 1.1-1.7), and gestational diabetes (HR = 1.3, 95%CI: 1.1-1.6), but results were attenuated after excluding children with congenital malformations. An increased risk of diseases of the circulatory system was also found in children exposed to paternal type 2 diabetes (HR = 1.5, 95%CI: 1.1-2.2) and the elevated risk remained after excluding children with congenital malformations. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that susceptibility to malignant neoplasm is modified partly by fetal programming. Diseases of the circulatory system may be modified by genetic factors, other time-stable family factors, or fetal programming

How Experiences Become Data: The Process of Eliciting Adverse Event, Medical History and Concomitant Medication Reports in Antimalarial and Antiretroviral Interaction Trials.

Accurately characterizing a drug's safety profile is essential. Trial harm and tolerability assessments rely, in part, on participants' reports of medical histories, adverse events (AEs), and concomitant medications. Optimal methods for questioning participants are unclear, but different methods giving different results can undermine meta-analyses. This study compared methods for eliciting such data and explored reasons for dissimilar participant responses. Participants from open-label antimalarial and antiretroviral interaction trials in two distinct sites (South Africa, n = 18 [all HIV positive]; Tanzania, n = 80 [86% HIV positive]) were asked about ill health and treatment use by sequential use of (1) general enquiries without reference to particular conditions, body systems or treatments, (2) checklists of potential health issues and treatments, (3) in-depth interviews. Participants' experiences of illness and treatment and their reporting behaviour were explored qualitatively, as were trial clinicians' experiences with obtaining participant reports. Outcomes were the number and nature of data by questioning method, themes from qualitative analyses and a theoretical interpretation of participants' experiences. There was an overall cumulative increase in the number of reports from general enquiry through checklists to in-depth interview; in South Africa, an additional 12 medical histories, 21 AEs and 27 medications; in Tanzania an additional 260 medical histories, 1 AE and 11 medications. Checklists and interviews facilitated recognition of health issues and treatments, and consideration of what to report. Information was sometimes not reported because participants forgot, it was considered irrelevant or insignificant, or they feared reporting. Some medicine names were not known and answers to questions were considered inferior to blood tests for detecting ill health. South African inpatient volunteers exhibited a "trial citizenship", working to achieve researchers' goals, while Tanzanian outpatients sometimes deferred responsibility for identifying items to report to trial clinicians. Questioning methods and trial contexts influence the detection of adverse events, medical histories and concomitant medications. There should be further methodological work to investigate these influences and find appropriate questioning methods

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. V. Optical Spectroscopic Campaign and Emission-line Analysis for NGC 5548

We present the results of an optical spectroscopic monitoring program targeting NGC 5548 as part of a larger multiwavelength reverberation mapping campaign. The campaign spanned 6 months and achieved an almost daily cadence with observations from five ground-based telescopes. The Hβ and He ii λ4686 broad emission-line light curves lag that of the 5100 +-optical continuum by 4.17+0.36-0.36 and 0.79+0.35-0.34 days, respectively. The Hβ lag relative to the 1158 ultraviolet continuum light curve measured by the Hubble Space Telescope is ∼50% longer than that measured against the optical continuum, and the lag difference is consistent with the observed lag between the optical and ultraviolet continua. This suggests that the characteristic radius of the broad-line region is ∼50% larger than the value inferred from optical data alone. We also measured velocity-resolved emission-line lags for Hβ and found a complex velocity-lag structure with shorter lags in the line wings, indicative of a broad-line region dominated by Keplerian motion. The responses of both the Hβ and He ii emission lines to the driving continuum changed significantly halfway through the campaign, a phenomenon also observed for C iv, Lyα, He ii(+O iii]), and Si iv(+O iv]) during the same monitoring period. Finally, given the optical luminosity of NGC 5548 during our campaign, the measured Hβ lag is a factor of five shorter than the expected value implied by the R BLR-L AGN relation based on the past behavior of NGC 5548

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. IX. Velocity–Delay Maps for Broad Emission Lines in NGC 5548

In this contribution, we achieve the primary goal of the active galactic nucleus (AGN) STORM campaign by recovering velocity–delay maps for the prominent broad emission lines (Lyα, C iv, He ii, and Hβ) in the spectrum of NGC 5548. These are the most detailed velocity–delay maps ever obtained for an AGN, providing unprecedented information on the geometry, ionization structure, and kinematics of the broad-line region. Virial envelopes enclosing the emission-line responses show that the reverberating gas is bound to the black hole. A stratified ionization structure is evident. The He ii response inside 5–10 lt-day has a broad single-peaked velocity profile. The Lyα, C iv, and Hβ responses extend from inside 2 to outside 20 lt-day, with double peaks at ±2500 km s−1 in the 10–20 lt-day delay range. An incomplete ellipse in the velocity–delay plane is evident in Hβ. We interpret the maps in terms of a Keplerian disk with a well-defined outer rim at R = 20 lt-day. The far-side response is weaker than that from the near side. The line-center delay $\tau =(R/c)(1-\sin i)\approx 5$ days gives the inclination i ≈ 45°. The inferred black hole mass is MBH ≈ 7 × 107 M⊙. In addition to reverberations, the fit residuals confirm that emission-line fluxes are depressed during the "BLR Holiday" identified in previous work. Moreover, a helical "Barber-Pole" pattern, with stripes moving from red to blue across the C iv and Lyα line profiles, suggests azimuthal structure rotating with a 2 yr period that may represent precession or orbital motion of inner-disk structures casting shadows on the emission-line region farther out