Universal Probability-Free Conformal Prediction

We construct universal prediction systems in the spirit of Popper's falsifiability and Kolmogorov complexity and randomness. These prediction systems do not depend on any statistical assumptions (but under the IID assumption they dominate, to within the usual accuracy, conformal prediction). Our constructions give rise to a theory of algorithmic complexity and randomness of time containing analogues of several notions and results of the classical theory of Kolmogorov complexity and randomness.Comment: 27 page

The Neuropeptide PDF Acts Directly on Evening Pacemaker Neurons to Regulate Multiple Features of Circadian Behavior

Animals use distinct sets of clock neurons to time behaviors in the morning and evening. In this article, the direct neural targets for morning neurons and the neuropeptide pigment dispersing factor are revealed in the fruit fly

Mesoscale flux-closure domain formation in single-crystal BaTiO3

Over 60 years ago, Charles Kittel predicted that quadrant domains should spontaneously form in small ferromagnetic platelets. He expected that the direction of magnetization within each quadrant should lie parallel to the platelet surface, minimizing demagnetizing fields,and that magnetic moments should be configured into an overall closed loop, or flux-closure arrangement. Although now a ubiquitous observation in ferromagnets, obvious flux-closure patterns have been somewhat elusive in ferroelectric materials. This is despite the analogous behaviour between these two ferroic subgroups and the recent prediction of dipole closure states by atomistic simulations research. Here we show Piezoresponse Force Microscopy images of mesoscopic dipole closure patterns in free-standing, single-crystal lamellae of BaTiO3. Formation of these patterns is a dynamical process resulting from system relaxation after the BaTiO3 has been poled with a uniform electric field. The flux-closure states are composed of shape conserving 90° stripe domains which minimize disclination stresses

Estimating the individualized HIV-1 genetic barrier to resistance using a nelfinavir fitness landscape

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Failure on Highly Active Anti-Retroviral Treatment is often accompanied with development of antiviral resistance to one or more drugs included in the treatment. In general, the virus is more likely to develop resistance to drugs with a lower genetic barrier. Previously, we developed a method to reverse engineer, from clinical sequence data, a fitness landscape experienced by HIV-1 under nelfinavir (NFV) treatment. By simulation of evolution over this landscape, the individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may be estimated for an isolate.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We investigated the association of estimated genetic barrier with risk of development of NFV resistance at virological failure, in 201 patients that were predicted fully susceptible to NFV at baseline, and found that a higher estimated genetic barrier was indeed associated with lower odds for development of resistance at failure (OR 0.62 (0.45 - 0.94), per additional mutation needed, p = .02).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Thus, variation in individualized genetic barrier to NFV resistance may impact effective treatment options available after treatment failure. If similar results apply for other drugs, then estimated genetic barrier may be a new clinical tool for choice of treatment regimen, which allows consideration of available treatment options after virological failure.</p

Measurement of D-s(+) and D-s(*+) production in B meson decays and from continuum e(+)e(-) annihilation at √s=10.6 GeV

This is the pre-print version of the Article. The official published version can be accessed from the links below. Copyright @ 2002 APSNew measurements of Ds+ and Ds*+ meson production rates from B decays and from qq̅ continuum events near the Υ(4S) resonance are presented. Using 20.8 fb-1 of data on the Υ(4S) resonance and 2.6 fb-1 off-resonance, we find the inclusive branching fractions B(B⃗Ds+X)=(10.93±0.19±0.58±2.73)% and B(B⃗Ds*+X)=(7.9±0.8±0.7±2.0)%, where the first error is statistical, the second is systematic, and the third is due to the Ds+→φπ+ branching fraction uncertainty. The production cross sections σ(e+e-→Ds+X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=7.55±0.20±0.34pb and σ(e+e-→Ds*±X)×B(Ds+→φπ+)=5.8±0.7±0.5pb are measured at center-of-mass energies about 40 MeV below the Υ(4S) mass. The branching fractions ΣB(B⃗Ds(*)+D(*))=(5.07±0.14±0.30±1.27)% and ΣB(B⃗Ds*+D(*))=(4.1±0.2±0.4±1.0)% are determined from the Ds(*)+ momentum spectra. The mass difference m(Ds+)-m(D+)=98.4±0.1±0.3MeV/c2 is also measured.This work was supported by DOE and NSF (USA), NSERC (Canada), IHEP (China), CEA and CNRS-IN2P3 (France), BMBF (Germany), INFN (Italy), NFR (Norway), MIST (Russia), and PPARC (United Kingdom). Individuals have received support from the Swiss NSF, A. P. Sloan Foundation, Research Corporation, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation

DCs Pulsed with Novel HLA-A2-Restricted CTL Epitopes against Hepatitis C Virus Induced a Broadly Reactive Anti-HCV-Specific T Lymphocyte Response

OBJECTIVE: To determine the capacity of dendritic cells (DCs) loaded with single or multiple-peptide mixtures of novel hepatitis C virus (HCV) epitopes to stimulate HCV-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) effector functions. METHODS: A bioinformatics approach was used to predict HLA-A2-restricted HCV-specific CTL epitopes, and the predicted peptides identified from this screen were synthesized. Subsequent IFN-γ ELISPOT analysis detected the stimulating function of these peptides in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from both chronic and self-limited HCV infected subjects (subjects exhibiting spontaneous HCV clearance). Mature DCs, derived in vitro from CD14(+) monocytes harvested from the study subjects by incubation with appropriate cytokine cocktails, were loaded with novel peptide or epitope peptide mixtures and co-cultured with autologous T lymphocytes. Granzyme B (GrB) and IFN-γ ELISPOT analysis was used to test for epitope-specific CTL responses. T-cell-derived cytokines contained in the co-cultured supernatant were detected by flow cytometry. RESULTS: We identified 7 novel HLA-A2-restricted HCV-specific CTL epitopes that increased the frequency of IFN-γ-producing T cells compared to other epitopes, as assayed by measuring spot forming cells (SFCs). Two epitopes had the strongest stimulating capability in the self-limited subjects, one found in the E2 and one in the NS2 region of HCV; five epitopes had a strong stimulating capacity in both chronic and self-limited HCV infection, but were stronger in the self-limited subjects. They were distributed in E2, NS2, NS3, NS4, and NS5 regions of HCV, respectively. We also found that mDCs loaded with novel peptide mixtures could significantly increase GrB and IFN-γ SFCs as compared to single peptides, especially in chronic HCV infection subjects. Additionally, we found that DCs pulsed with multiple epitope peptide mixtures induced a Th1-biased immune response. CONCLUSIONS: Seven novel and strongly stimulating HLA-A2-restricted HCV-specific CTL epitopes were identified. Furthermore, DCs loaded with multiple-epitope peptide mixtures induced epitope-specific CTLs responses