Complex temporal climate signals drive the emergence of human water-borne disease

Predominantly occurring in developing parts of the world, Buruli ulcer is a severely disabling mycobacterium infection which often leads to extensive necrosis of the skin. While the exact route of transmission remains uncertain, like many tropical diseases, associations with climate have been previously observed and could help identify the causative agent's ecological niche. In this paper, links between changes in rainfall and outbreaks of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana, an ultraperipheral European territory in the northeast of South America, were identified using a combination of statistical tests based on singular spectrum analysis, empirical mode decomposition and cross-wavelet coherence analysis. From this, it was possible to postulate for the first time that outbreaks of Buruli ulcer can be triggered by combinations of rainfall patterns occurring on a long (i.e., several years) and short (i.e., seasonal) temporal scale, in addition to stochastic events driven by the El Nino-Southern Oscillation that may disrupt or interact with these patterns. Long-term forecasting of rainfall trends further suggests the possibility of an upcoming outbreak of Buruli ulcer in French Guiana

Detecting impacts of invasive non-native sharptooth catfish, Clarias gariepinus, within invaded and non-invaded rivers.

In aquatic ecosystems, impacts by invasive introduced fish can be likened to press disturbances that persistently influence communities. This study examined invasion disturbances by determining the relationship between non-native sharptooth catfish Clarias gariepinus and aquatic macroinvertebrates in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. A Multiple Before–After Control–Impact (MBACI) experimental design was used to examine macroinvertebrate communities within two rivers: one with catfish and another one without catfish. Within the invaded river, macroinvertebrates showed little response to catfish presence, whereas predator exclusion appeared to benefit community structure. This suggests that the macroinvertebrate community within the invaded river was adapted to predation impact because of the dominance of resilient taxa, such as Hirudinea, Oligochaeta and Chironomidae that were abundant in the Impact treatment relative to the Control treatment. High macroinvertebrate diversity and richness that was observed in the Control treatment, which excluded the predator, relative to the Impact treatment suggests predator avoidance behaviour within the invaded river. By comparison, within the uninvaded river, catfish introduction into the Impact treatment plots indicated negative effects on macroinvertebrate community that was reflected by decrease in diversity, richness and biomass. A community level impact was also reflected in the multivariate analysis that indicated more variation in macroinvertebrate composition within the Impact treatment relative to the Control in the uninvaded river. Catfish impact within the uninvaded river suggests the dominance of vulnerable taxa, such as odonates that were less abundant in the Impact treatment plots after catfish introduction. From a disturbance perspective, this study revealed different macroinvertebrate responses to catfish impact, and suggests that within invaded habitats, macroinvertebrates were less responsive to catfish presence, whereas catfish introduction within uninvaded habitats demonstrated invasion impact that was shown by a decrease in the abundance of vulnerable taxa. The occurrence of non-native sharptooth catfish within many Eastern Cape rivers is a concern because of its predation impact and potential to influence trophic interrelationships, and efforts should be taken to protect uninvaded rivers, and, where possible, eradicate the invader