Targeting vaccinations for the licensed dengue vaccine: considerations for serosurvey design

Background The CYD-TDV vaccine was unusual in that the recommended target population for vaccination was originally defined not only by age, but also by transmission setting as defined by seroprevalence. WHO originally recommended countries consider vaccination against dengue with CYD-TDV vaccine in geographic settings only where prior infection with any dengue serotype, as measured by seroprevalence, was >170% in the target age group. Vaccine was not recommended in settings where seroprevalence was <50%. Test-and-vaccinate strategies suggested following new analysis by Sanofi will still require age-stratified seroprevalence surveys to optimise age-group targeting. Here we address considerations for serosurvey design in the context of vaccination program planning. Methods To explore how the design of seroprevalence surveys affects estimates of transmission intensity, 100 age-specific seroprevalence surveys were simulated using a beta-binomial distribution and a simple catalytic model for different combinations of age-range, survey size, transmission setting, and test sensitivity/specificity. We then used a Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte-Carlo algorithm to estimate the force of infection from each simulated dataset. Results Sampling from a wide age-range led to more accurate estimates than merely increasing sample size in a narrow age-range. This finding was consistent across all transmission settings. The optimum test sensitivity and specificity given an imperfect test differed by setting with high sensitivity being important in high transmission settings and high specificity important in low transmission settings. Conclusions When assessing vaccination suitability by seroprevalence surveys, countries should ensure an appropriate age-range is sampled, considering epidemiological evidence about the local burden of disease

Muscarinic receptor subtypes and signalling involved in the attenuation of isoprenaline-induced rat urinary bladder relaxation

β-Adrenoceptors are important mediators of smooth muscle relaxation in the urinary bladder, but the concomitant presence of a muscarinic agonist, e.g., carbachol, can attenuate relaxation responses by reducing potency and/or efficacy of β-adrenoceptor agonists such as isoprenaline. Therefore, the present study was designed to explore the subtypes and signalling pathways of muscarinic receptors involved in the attenuation of isoprenaline-induced isolated rat detrusor preparations using novel subtype-selective receptor ligands. In radioligand binding studies, we characterized BZI to be a M3-sparing muscarinic agonist, providing selective M2 stimulation in rat bladder, and THRX-182087 as a highly M2-selective antagonist. The use of BZI and of THRX-182087 in the presence of carbachol enabled experimental conditions with a selective stimulation of only M2 or M3 receptors, respectively. Confirming previous findings, carbachol attenuated isoprenaline-induced detrusor relaxation. M2-selective stimulation partly mimicked this attenuation, indicating that both M2 and M3 receptors are involved. During M3-selective stimulation, the attenuation of isoprenaline responses was reduced by the phospholipase C inhibitor U 73,122 but not by the protein kinase C inhibitor chelerythrine. We conclude that both M2 and M3 receptors contribute to attenuation of β-adrenoceptor-mediated relaxation of rat urinary bladder; the signal transduction pathway involved in the M3 component of this attenuation differs from that mediating direct contractile effects of M3 receptors

Estimating Dengue Transmission Intensity from Case-Notification Data from Multiple Countries

Despite being the most widely distributed mosquito-borne viral infection, estimates of dengue transmission intensity and associated burden remain ambiguous. With advances in the development of novel control measures, obtaining robust estimates of average dengue transmission intensity is key for assessing the burden of disease and the likely impact of interventions.We estimated the force of infection (λ) and corresponding basic reproduction numbers (R0) by fitting catalytic models to age-stratified incidence data identified from the literature. We compared estimates derived from incidence and seroprevalence data and assessed the level of under-reporting of dengue disease. In addition, we estimated the relative contribution of primary to quaternary infections to the observed burden of dengue disease incidence. The majority of R0 estimates ranged from one to five and the force of infection estimates from incidence data were consistent with those previously estimated from seroprevalence data. The baseline reporting rate (or the probability of detecting a secondary infection) was generally low (<25%) and varied within and between countries.As expected, estimates varied widely across and within countries, highlighting the spatio-temporally heterogeneous nature of dengue transmission. Although seroprevalence data provide the maximum information, the incidence models presented in this paper provide a method for estimating dengue transmission intensity from age-stratified incidence data, which will be an important consideration in areas where seroprevalence data are not available

Self-reported domain-specific and accelerometer-based physical activity and sedentary behaviour in relation to psychological distress among an urban Asian population

Abstract Background The interpretation of previous studies on the association of physical activity and sedentary behaviour with psychological health is limited by the use of mostly self-reported physical activity and sedentary behaviour, and a focus on Western populations. We aimed to explore the association of self-reported and devise-based measures of physical activity and sedentary behaviour domains on psychological distress in an urban multi-ethnic Asian population. Methods From a population-based cross-sectional study of adults aged 18–79 years, data were used from an overall sample (n = 2653) with complete self-reported total physical activity/sedentary behaviour and domain-specific physical activity data, and a subsample (n = 703) with self-reported domain-specific sedentary behaviour and accelerometry data. Physical activity and sedentary behaviour data were collected using the Global Physical Activity Questionnaire (GPAQ), a domain-specific sedentary behaviour questionnaire and accelerometers. The Kessler Screening Scale (K6) and General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) were used to assess psychological distress. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics. Results The sample comprised 45.0% men (median age = 45.0 years). The prevalence of psychological distress based on the K6 and GHQ-12 was 8.4% and 21.7%, respectively. In the adjusted model, higher levels of self-reported moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were associated with significantly higher odds for K6 (OR = 1.47 [1.03–2.10]; p-trend = 0.03) but not GHQ-12 (OR = 0.97 [0.77–1.23]; p-trend = 0.79), when comparing the highest with the lowest tertile. Accelerometry-assessed MVPA was not significantly associated with K6 (p-trend = 0.50) nor GHQ-12 (p-trend = 0.74). The highest tertile of leisure-time physical activity, but not work- or transport-domain activity, was associated with less psychological distress using K6 (OR = 0.65 [0.43–0.97]; p-trend = 0.02) and GHQ-12 (OR = 0.72 [0.55–0.93]; p-trend = 0.01). Self-reported sedentary behaviour was not associated with K6 (p-trend = 0.90) and GHQ-12 (p-trend = 0.33). The highest tertile of accelerometry-assessed sedentary behaviour was associated with significantly higher odds for K6 (OR = 1.93 [1.00–3.75]; p-trend = 0.04), but not GHQ-12 (OR = 1.34 [0.86–2.08]; p-trend = 0.18). Conclusions Higher levels of leisure-time physical activity and lower levels of accelerometer-based sedentary behaviour were associated with lower psychological distress. This study underscores the importance of assessing accelerometer-based and domain-specific activity in relation to mental health, instead of solely focusing on total volume of activity

Estimates of dengue force of infection in children in Colombo, Sri Lanka.

Dengue is the most important vector-borne viral disease worldwide and a major cause of childhood fever burden in Sri Lanka, which has experienced a number of large epidemics in the past decade. Despite this, data on the burden and transmission of dengue virus in the Indian Subcontinent are lacking. As part of a longitudinal fever surveillance study, we conducted a dengue seroprevalence survey among children aged <12 years in Colombo, Sri Lanka. We used a catalytic model to estimate the risk of primary infection among seronegative children. Over 50% of children had IgG antibodies to dengue virus and seroprevalence increased with age. The risk of primary infection was 14.1% per year (95% CI: 12.7%-15.6%), indicating that among initially seronegative children, approximately 1 in 7 experience their first infection within 12 months. There was weak evidence to suggest that the force of primary infection could be lower for children aged 6 years and above. We estimate that there are approximately 30 primary dengue infections among children <12 years in the community for every case notified to national surveillance, although this ratio is closer to 100:1 among infants. Dengue represents a considerable infection burden among children in urban Sri Lanka, with levels of transmission comparable to those in the more established epidemics of Southeast Asia

Dynamic spatiotemporal trends of dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region, 1955-2004

BACKGROUND: Dengue fever (DF) is one of the most important emerging arboviral human diseases. Globally, DF incidence has increased by 30-fold over the last fifty years, and the geographic range of the virus and its vectors has expanded. The disease is now endemic in more than 120 countries in tropical and subtropical parts of the world. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region over a 50-year period, and identified the disease's cluster areas. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: The World Health Organization's DengueNet provided the annual number of DF cases in 16 countries in the Asia-Pacific region for the period 1955 to 2004. This fifty-year dataset was divided into five ten-year periods as the basis for the investigation of DF transmission trends. Space-time cluster analyses were conducted using scan statistics to detect the disease clusters. This study shows an increasing trend in the spatiotemporal distribution of DF in the Asia-Pacific region over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, Singapore and Malaysia are identified as the most likely clusters (relative risk = 13.02) of DF transmission in this region in the period studied (1995 to 2004). The study also indicates that, for the most part, DF transmission has expanded southwards in the region. CONCLUSIONS: This information will lead to the improvement of DF prevention and control strategies in the Asia-Pacific region by prioritizing control efforts and directing them where they are most needed