Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic

As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April. This suggests that the collective actions of the Australian public and government authorities in response to COVID-19 were sufficiently early and assiduous to avert a public health crisis – for now. Analysing factors that contribute to individual country experiences of COVID-19, such as the intensity and timing of public health interventions, will assist in the next stage of response planning globally. We describe how the epidemic and public health response unfolded in Australia up to 13 April. We estimate that the effective reproduction number was likely below one in each Australian state since mid-March and forecast that clinical demand would remain below capacity thresholds over the forecast period (from mid-to-late April)

Clinical evolution, management and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted at Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa : a research protocol

CITATION: Allwood, B. W. et al. 2020. Clinical evolution, management and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 admitted at Tygerberg Hospital, Cape Town, South Africa : a research protocol. BMJ Open, 10:e039455, doi:10.1136/bmjopen-2020-039455.The original publication is available at https://bmjopen.bmj.comIntroduction The outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 virus causing COVID-19, declared a global pandemic by the WHO, is a novel infection with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. In South Africa, 55 421 cases have been confirmed as of 10 June 2020, with most cases in the Western Cape Province. Coronavirus leaves us in a position of uncertainty regarding the best clinical approach to successfully manage the expected high number of severely ill patients with COVID-19. This presents a unique opportunity to gather data to inform best practices in clinical approach and public health interventions to control COVID-19 locally. Furthermore, this pandemic challenges our resolve due to the high burden of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) in our country as data are scarce. This study endeavours to determine the clinical presentation, severity and prognosis of patients with COVID-19 admitted to our hospital. Methods and analysis The study will use multiple approaches taking into account the evolving nature of the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective observational design to describe specific patterns of risk predictors of poor outcomes among patients with severe COVID-19 admitted to Tygerberg Hospital. Data will be collected from medical records of patients with severe COVID-19 admitted at Tygerberg Hospital. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we will investigate the association between the survival time of patients with COVID-19 in relation to one or more of the predictor variables including HIV and TB. Ethics and dissemination The research team obtained ethical approval from the Health Research Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Medicine and Health Sciences, Stellenbosch University and Research Committee of the Tygerberg Hospital. All procedures for the ethical conduct of scientific investigation will be adhered to by the research team. The findings will be disseminated in clinical seminars, scientific forums and conferences targeting clinical care providers and policy-makers.Publisher's versio