Scenarios for resilience and climate adaptation strategies in Tenerife (Canary Islands): Three pathways towards 2040

A participatory scenario building process for small island resilience is carried out for the Tenerife Island (Canary Islands, Spain). The plot of the scenarios is based on institutional analyses and participatory techniques where key local stakeholders and citizens were engaged. A press analysis was done in order to identify the main narratives regarding the current level of resilience and its potentialities in the future, as well as to identify the stakeholders involved in the discourse. Meanwhile, in-depth interviews, questionnaires and focus groups were carried out to engage the stakeholders and local citizens in the exploration of futures scenarios for resilience in Tenerife. The scenarios brought out three potential pathways for 2040. The first scenario prolongs the current business as usual situation where the island may be defined as highly vulnerable to external shocks, especially due to its high external dependency on food and energy production, as well as the need for energy allocated to water desalination. The second scenario relies on an active local community that encourages increasing rates of local food production and a 100% renewable energy system such that desalination may no longer depend on fossil fuels. Lastly, the third scenario depicts a pathway where several active groups of people engages in building resilience without the umbrella of local governments, due to politicians are no longer seen as part of the solution, but part of the problem. Now, collaborative community networks in bioagriculture, fog-water collection, and cooperative-based renewable energy production become increasingly important. Findings show that resilience is understood as the reinforcement of the nexus between water-energy-food sovereignty that might imply a change in the local economic model such that poverty can be reduced and climatic shocks can be buffered.JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

Senegal 1970 – 2040: Evolución y escenarios futuros

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar, a través de la aplicación de la metodología de creación de escenarios, futuros escenarios posibles (deseados y no deseados) de Senegal en un horizonte temporal de 30 años. Los escenarios no son proyecciones o predicciones, sino historias sobre el futuro con un guión lógico y una narrativa que gobierna la manera en que los eventos tienen lugar. Para diseñar los escenarios futuros de Senegal se analizarán previamente el contexto y la evolución de las variables que conforman las dimensiones económica, social, cultural, ambiental y de gobernabilidad desde la independencia de Senegal hasta la actualidad. Basándose en esta información se definirán diferentes escenarios o cursos de eventos dando especial relevancia al despliegue de alternativas y a los puntos de bifurcación en los cuales las acciones de los actores sociales (“stakeholders”) pueden afectar significativamente el futuro

Qualité de la Connaissance dans un Processus Délibératif

Les évaluations scientifiques des risques complexes tels que le changement de climat, la perte de biodiversité, l'épuisement des ressources naturelles, les nanotechnologies ou les perturbateurs endocriniens, par exemple, sont confrontées à un certain nombre d¿incertitudes qui revêtent des formes diverses, dicilement appréhendables, de manière ecace, dans la pratique (Ambrosi et Courtois,2004). Pourtant, des décisions doivent être prises et ce, avant que des preuves concluantes ne soient disponibles, tout en sachant que les impacts potentiels de fausses décisions peuvent être tout aussi importants. Selon la conception classique du conseil scientifique aux décideurs, la certitude est nécessaire à la gestion des problèmes complexes. Cependant, l¿incertitude fait partie de la vie. C¿est dans cette perspective que cet article se situe, en posant la question de la validité et de la pertinence de la connaissance scientifique pour traiter de problèmes complexes.JRC.G.9-Econometrics and statistical support to antifrau

Agricultural Policies and Their Impact on Poverty Reduction in Developing Countries: Lessons Learned from Three Water Basins in Cape Verde

Agriculture is the main driving force of rural economies so there is a need to promote sustainable rural development and hence improve the living conditions of local communities. This article analyses the role of agricultural policies in reducing poverty in rural communities. Two aspects will be analysed: firstly, whether there has been a reduction in poverty in the basins analysed for the period 2006–2013; and secondly, whether that poverty reduction, to the extent that it has occurred, has been due to the agricultural policies applied. The analysis shows that the agricultural policies implemented helped to diversify and enhance agricultural production, so that a reduction in effective poverty occurred. However, these policies need to work jointly and in harmony with other economic sectors

Assessing Jatropha Crop Production Alternatives in Abandoned Agricultural Arid Soils Using MCA and GIS

This paper discusses the assessment of various biofuel crop production alternatives on the island of Fuerteventura using Jatropha crops. It adopts an integrated approach by carrying out a multi-criteria assessment with the support of participatory techniques and geographical information systems. Sixteen production alternatives were analyzed for growing Jatropha, and the results suggest that the best alternative involves using typical torrifluvent soils irrigated with recycled urban wastewater using surface drip irrigation covering 100% evapotranspiration. It was also determined that a potential area of 2546 ha could be used for cultivation within a radius of 10 km from a wastewater treatment plant. This level of production would supply 27.56% of the biofuel needs of Fuerteventura, thereby contributing to the 2020 target of the European Commission regarding biofuels for land transport

Participatory Multi-Criteria Assessment of Forest Planning Policies in Conflicting Situations: The Case of Tenerife

Sustainable forest planning should involve the participation of stakeholder communities in the decision-making process. This participation can help avoid the possible rejection of new planning measures. In this paper, the decision-making process to implement regulations on the use of forest tracks on the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain) is analyzed. In recent years, the number of people using the island’s forest environments has notably increased, leading to conflicts between different users of the tracks; as a result, the Island Council of Tenerife is working on regulating these pathways. This paper describes the framing analysis, design, and implementation of a participatory multi-criteria approach to explore, together with stakeholders, the best policy alternatives related to forest planning and management issues of forest track use. To do this, a set of tools has been developed, consisting of institutional analysis, participatory methods, and multi-criteria assessment techniques

3 pillars and 1 beam: Quality of river basin governance processes

This paper suggests a framework that may enhance quality assurance of evaluation of river basin planning and governance processes based on 3 pillars and 1 beam: inclusive governance, transparent assessment, socially robust knowledge and extended peer review. It was developed based on past evaluation experiences from 5 cases of European river basin governance processes, entailing analysis of emergent patterns and linkages among the 4 vertices of the ADVISOR tetrahedron (context, information, assessment and participation), looking into justifications of past practice according to 4 types of context: institutional, societal, knowledge and methodological. The paper also hints on quality requirements that could be recommended for future practice of river basin governance evaluation activities.Quality assurance Socially robust knowledge Extended peer review Inclusive governance

Knowledge Assessment: Protocol for Quality Assurance by Extended Peer Review

This chapter deals with the assessment of quality of the information used in Integrated Water Planning Processes. Firstly, the quality of information used in river basin assessment studies is analysed for the 5 case studies available for ADVISOR (Del Moral et al. 2002; Hatzilacou et al. 2002; Hill et al. 2002; Van Leeuwen et al. 2002; Videira et al. 2002). Quality categories are used to produce a diagnosis of a purposeful developed model of information flows, characteristic of water assessment studies. The scheme comprises criteria to analyse information produced and communicated and assessment activities undertaken. Subsequently, both a normative and a descriptive use of the quality categories is proposed in a form of a protocol for quality assurance, illustrated with an application to a case study in Portugal: The Mediated Modelling process in the Baixo Guadiana, suggesting its usefulness in the planning activities envisaged under the WFD.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

3 Pillars & 1 Beam: Quality of River Basin Governance Processes

This paper suggests a framework that may enhance quality assurance of evaluation of river basin planning and governance processes based on 3 pillars and 1 beam: inclusive governance, transparent assessment, socially robust knowledge and extended peer review. It was developed based on past evaluation experiences from 5 cases of European river basin governance processes, entailing analysis of emergent patterns and linkages among the 4 vertices of the ADVISOR tetrahedron (context, information, assessment and participation), looking into justifications of past practice according to 4 types of context: institutional, societal, knowledge and methodological. The paper also hints on quality requirements that could be recommended for future practice of river basin governance evaluation activities.JRC.G.9-Econometrics and applied statistic