A method of determining where to target surveillance efforts in heterogeneous epidemiological systems

The spread of pathogens into new environments poses a considerable threat to human, animal, and plant health, and by extension, human and animal wellbeing, ecosystem function, and agricultural productivity, worldwide. Early detection through effective surveillance is a key strategy to reduce the risk of their establishment. Whilst it is well established that statistical and economic considerations are of vital importance when planning surveillance efforts, it is also important to consider epidemiological characteristics of the pathogen in question—including heterogeneities within the epidemiological system itself. One of the most pronounced realisations of this heterogeneity is seen in the case of vector-borne pathogens, which spread between ‘hosts’ and ‘vectors’—with each group possessing distinct epidemiological characteristics. As a result, an important question when planning surveillance for emerging vector-borne pathogens is where to place sampling resources in order to detect the pathogen as early as possible. We answer this question by developing a statistical function which describes the probability distributions of the prevalences of infection at first detection in both hosts and vectors. We also show how this method can be adapted in order to maximise the probability of early detection of an emerging pathogen within imposed sample size and/or cost constraints, and demonstrate its application using two simple models of vector-borne citrus pathogens. Under the assumption of a linear cost function, we find that sampling costs are generally minimised when either hosts or vectors, but not both, are sampled

Biological diversity of citrus tristeza virus (CTV) isolates in Spain

A survey of citrus tristeza virus (CTV) isolates was carried out in most citrus-growing areas in Spain. Twenty-two isolates were selected by geographical origin, cultivar of source tree, and symptoms observed on the host or in preliminary tests, and were biologically characterized. A wide range of variation in transmissibility by aphids and symptom intensity on nine different indicator species or scion rootstock combinations was observed among CTV isolates. Mexican lime, Citrus macrophylla, and to a lesser extent citron were the most useful hosts for characterizing these isolates, and leaf symptoms and stem pitting were the most discriminating traits. Positive correlation was observed between symptoms induced on Mexican lime and C. macrophylla, but not between the symptoms induced on these indicators under greenhouse conditions and the homologous symptoms on plants grown in the screenhouse. Some of the traits studied enabled us to establish relatively well-defined groups of isolates, but in most cases a continuous range of variation was obtained and no clear group could be defined

Rapid in vitro microindexing of viroids in citrus

A new laboratory technique combining shoot-tip grafting in vitro and biological indexing on indicator plants was explored for the detection of citrus exocortis and related viroids. Three in vitro laboratory methods were used and compared with the classical biological method. With the classical in vivo method, diagnosis is based on the expression of symptoms on indicators 11-14 weeks after inoculation. In contrast, with the first in vitro method, microindexing in vitro of citron seedlings by graft inoculation, diagnosis was possible 12 days after inoculation; with the second method, microindexing in vitro of citron cuttings by graft inoculation, 20 days after inoculation; and with the third method, microindexing in vitro of citron cuttings by injection inoculation, 40 days after inoculation. Inoculated Etrog citron plantlets grown in vitro and tested by RT-PCR showed the same viroid content as the source plants. Of the three in vitro viroid indexing methods, microindexing on cuttings by grafting was easier and more reliable than microindexing either on seedlings or on cuttings by injection