A Trait-Based Clustering for Phytoplankton Biomass Modeling and Prediction

When designing models for predicting phytoplankton biomass or characterizing traits, it is useful to aggregate the myriad of species into a few biologically meaningful groups and focus on group-level attributes, the common practice being to combine phytoplankton species by functional types. However, biogeochemists and plankton ecologists debate the most applicable grouping for describing phytoplankton biomass patterns and predicting future community structure. Although trait-based approaches are increasingly being advocated, methods are missing for the generation of trait-basedtaxaasalternativestofunctionaltypes. Hereweintroducesuchamethodanddemonstrate the usefulness of the resulting clustering with field data. We parameterize a Bayesian model of biomass dynamics and analyze long-term phytoplankton data collected at Station L4 in the Western English Channel between April 2003 and December 2009. We examine the tradeoffs encountered regarding trait characterization and biomass prediction when aggregating biomass by (1) functional types, (2) the trait-based clusters generated by our method, and (3) total biomass. The model conveniently extracted trait values under the trait-based clustering, but required well-constrained priors under the functional type categorization. It also more accurately predicted total biomass under the trait-based clustering and the total biomass aggregation with comparable root mean squared prediction errors, which were roughly five-fold lower than under the functional type grouping. Although the total biomass grouping ignores taxonomic differences in phytoplankton traits,it predicts total biomass change as well as the trait-based clustering. Our results corroborate the value of trait-based approaches in investigating the mechanisms under lying phytoplankton biomass dynamics and predicting the community response to environmental changes

Phytoplankton traits from long-term oceanographic time-series

Trait values are usually extracted from laboratory studies of single phytoplankton species, which presents challenges for understanding the immense diversity of phytoplankton species and the wide range of dynamic ocean environments. Here we use a Bayesian approach and a trait-based model to extract trait values for 4 functional types and 10 diatom species from field data collected at Station L4 in the Western Channel Observatory, English Channel. We find differences in maximum net growth rate, temperature optimum and sensitivity, half-saturation constants for light and nitrogen, and density-dependent loss terms across the functional types. We find evidence of very high linear loss rates, suggesting that grazing may be even more important than commonly assumed and differences in density-dependent loss rates across functional types, indicating the presence of strong niche differentiation among functional types. Low half-saturation constants for nitrogen at the functional type level may indicate widespread mixotrophy. At the species level, we find a wide range of density-dependent effects, which may be a signal of diversity in grazing susceptibility or biotic interactions. This approach may be a way to obtain more realistic and better-constrained trait values for functional types to be used in ecosystem modeling

Ecological equivalence of species within phytoplankton functional groups

1.There are tens of thousands of species of phytoplankton found throughout the tree of life. Despite this diversity, phytoplankton are often aggregated into a few functional groups according to metabolic traits or biogeochemical role. We investigate the extent to which phytoplankton species dynamics are neutral within functional groups. 2.Seasonal dynamics in many regions of the ocean are known to affect phytoplankton at the functional group level leading to largely predictable patterns of seasonal succession. It is much more difficult to make general statements about the dynamics of individual species. 3.We use a 7 year time-series at station L4 in the Western English Channel with 57 diatom and 17 dinoflagellate species enumerated weekly to test if the abundance of diatom and dinoflagellate species vary randomly within their functional group envelope or if each species is driven uniquely by external factors. 4.We show that the total biomass of the diatom and dinoflagellate functional groups is well predicted by irradiance and temperature and quantify trait values governing the growth rate of both functional groups. The biomass dynamics of the functional groups are not neutral and each has their own distinct responses to environmental forcing. Compared to dinoflagellates, diatoms have faster growth rates, and grow faster under lower irradiance, cooler temperatures, and higher nutrient conditions. 5.The biomass of most species vary randomly within their functional group biomass envelope, most of the time. As a consequence, modelers will find it difficult to predict the biomass of most individual species. Our analysis supports the approach of using a single set of traits for a functional group and suggests that it should be possible to determine these traits from natural communities

Bayesian two-part modeling of phytoplankton biomass and occurrence

Phytoplankton biomass data often involve zero outcomes preventing a description by continuous distributions with positive support such as the lognormal distribution commonly used to describe ecological data. Two usual solutions: ignoring the zeroes and adding a small positive number to all outcomes, induce bias and reduce predictive power. To address these shortcomings, we design a Bayesian two-part model with a binary component for presence or absence and a continuous component involving a lognormal model for non-zero biomass. We specify two equations relating species-specific occurrence probabilities and expected log-biomasses when present to potential covariates, with spike-and-slab priors imposed on linear effects to selectively discard the irrelevant predictors. We analyze the biomass data of 74 phytoplankton (57 diatoms and 17 dinoflagellates) recorded weekly at Station L4 (Western English Channel, UK) between April 2003 and December 2009, along with measurements of abiotic covariates. Our results disclose different combinations of environmental predictors for the occurrence and the biomass of individual species. Overall, the occurrence of dinoflagellates is associated with higher temperature and irradiance levels compared to diatoms, with virtually no dependence on nutrient concentrations. Irradiance emerges as the key predictor of biomass when species are present. Optimum temperatures for biomass accumulation and temperature sensitivities vary widely among and within functional types. Compared to one-stage models based on usual zero handling approaches, our two-part model stands out with higher prediction accuracy. The two-part modeling approach provides a valuable framework for decoupling the predictors of species occurrence and abundance from observational data

A two step Bayesian approach for genomic prediction of breeding values

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In genomic models that assign an individual variance to each marker, the contribution of one marker to the posterior distribution of the marker variance is only one degree of freedom (df), which introduces many variance parameters with only little information per variance parameter. A better alternative could be to form clusters of markers with similar effects where markers in a cluster have a common variance. Therefore, the influence of each marker group of size <it>p </it>on the posterior distribution of the marker variances will be <it>p </it>df.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The simulated data from the 15^thQTL-MAS workshop were analyzed such that SNP markers were ranked based on their effects and markers with similar estimated effects were grouped together. In step 1, all markers with minor allele frequency more than 0.01 were included in a SNP-BLUP prediction model. In step 2, markers were ranked based on their estimated variance on the trait in step 1 and each 150 markers were assigned to one group with a common variance. In further analyses, subsets of 1500 and 450 markers with largest effects in step 2 were kept in the prediction model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Grouping markers outperformed SNP-BLUP model in terms of accuracy of predicted breeding values. However, the accuracies of predicted breeding values were lower than Bayesian methods with marker specific variances.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Grouping markers is less flexible than allowing each marker to have a specific marker variance but, by grouping, the power to estimate marker variances increases. A prior knowledge of the genetic architecture of the trait is necessary for clustering markers and appropriate prior parameterization.</p

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests

Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008–2010) in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming

A niche remedy for the dynamical problems of neutral theory

We demonstrate how niche theory and Hubbell's original formulation of neutral theory can be blended together into a general framework modeling the combined effects of selection, drift, speciation, and dispersal on community dynamics. This framework connects many seemingly unrelated ecological population models, and allows for quantitative predictions to be made about the impact of niche stabilizing and destabilizing forces on population extinction times and abundance distributions. In particular, the existence of niche stabilizing forces in our blended framework can simultaneously resolve two major problems with the dynamics of neutral theory, namely predictions of species lifetimes that are too short and species ages that are too long.Comment: 47 pages, 4 figures, Accepted to Theoretical Ecolog

Dynamic Phenotypic Clustering in Noisy Ecosystems

In natural ecosystems, hundreds of species typically share the same environment and are connected by a dense network of interactions such as predation or competition for resources. Much is known about how fixed ecological niches can determine species abundances in such systems, but far less attention has been paid to patterns of abundances in randomly varying environments. Here, we study this question in a simple model of competition between many species in a patchy ecosystem with randomly fluctuating environmental conditions. Paradoxically, we find that introducing noise can actually induce ordered patterns of abundance-fluctuations, leading to a distinct periodic variation in the correlations between species as a function of the phenotypic distance between them; here, difference in growth rate. This is further accompanied by the formation of discrete, dynamic clusters of abundant species along this otherwise continuous phenotypic axis. These ordered patterns depend on the collective behavior of many species; they disappear when only individual or pairs of species are considered in isolation. We show that they arise from a balance between the tendency of shared environmental noise to synchronize species abundances and the tendency for competition among species to make them fluctuate out of step. Our results demonstrate that in highly interconnected ecosystems, noise can act as an ordering force, dynamically generating ecological patterns even in environments lacking explicit niches

Bayesian inference to partition determinants of community dynamics from observational time series

Ecological communities are shaped by a complex interplay between abiotic forcing, biotic regulation and demographic stochasticity. However, community dynamics modelers tend to focus on abiotic forcing overlooking biotic interactions, due to notorious challenges involved in modeling and quantifying inter-specific interactions, particularly for species-rich systems such as planktonic assemblages. Nevertheless, inclusive models with regard to the full range of plausible drivers are essential to characterizing and predicting community response to environmental changes. Here we develop a Bayesian model for identifying, from in-situ time series, the biotic, abiotic and stochastic factors underlying the dynamics of species-rich communities, focusing on the joint biomass dynamics of biologically meaningful groups. We parameterize a multivariate model of population co-variation with an explicit account for demographic stochasticity, density-dependent feedbacks, pairwise interactions, and abiotic stress mediated by changing environmental conditions and resource availability, and work out explicit formulae for partitioning the temporal variance of each group in its biotic, abiotic and stochastic components. We illustrate the methodology by analyzing the joint biomass dynamics of four major phytoplankton functional types namely, diatoms, dinoflagellates, coccolithophores and phytoflagellates at Station L4 in the Western English Channel using weekly biomass records and coincident measurements of environmental covariates describing water conditions and potentially limiting resources. Abiotic and biotic factors explain comparable amounts of temporal variance in log-biomass growth across functional types. Our results demonstrate that effective modelling of resource limitation and inter-specific interactions is critical for quantifying the relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors