The future of agriculture. Agricultural knowledge for economically, socially and environmentally sustainable development

At the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development held in South Africa, the World Bank (Washington, DC, USA) and the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, Rome, Italy) announced that they would organize a global consultation process on agricultural science and technology (IAASTD, 2003). They showed remarkable foresight: when the International Assessment of Agriculture, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD) final reports were approved in April 2008, they were released to media and governments already disturbed about biofuels, increasing food prices, food protests in developing countries, and a general concern about producing enough food to feed the world (IAASTD, 2008).Peer reviewe

Using fuzzy logic modelling to simulate farmers’ decision-making on diversification and integration in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

To reveal farmers’ motives for on-farm diversification and integration of farming components in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam, we developed a fuzzy logic model (FLM) using a 10-step approach. Farmers’ decision-making was mimicked in a three-layer hierarchical architecture of fuzzy inference systems, using data of 72 farms. The model includes three variables for family motives of diversification, six variables related to component integration, next to variables for the production factors and for farmers’ appreciation of market prices and know-how on 10 components. To obtain a good classification rate of the less frequent activities, additional individual fine-tuning was necessary after general model calibration. To obtain the desired degree of sensitivity to each variable, it was necessary to use up to five linguistic values for some of the input and output variables in the intermediate hierarchical layers. Model’s sensitivity to motivational variables determining diversification and integration was of the same magnitude as its sensitivity to market prices and farmers’ know-how of the activities, but less than its sensitivity to labour, capital and land endowment. Modelling to support strategic decision-making seems too elaborate for individual farms, but FLM will be useful to integrate farmers’ opinions in strategic decision-making at higher hierarchical levels.Infrastructures, Systems and ServicesTechnology, Policy and Managemen

Hippopotamus and livestock grazing:influences on riparian vegetation and facilitation of other herbivores in the Mara Region of Kenya

<p>Riparian savanna habitats grazed by hippopotamus or livestock experience seasonal ecological stresses through the depletion of herbaceous vegetation, and are often points of contacts and conflicts between herbivores, humans and their livestock. We investigated how hippopotamus and livestock grazing influence vegetation structure and cover and facilitate other wild herbivores in the Mara region of Kenya. We used 5 km-long transects, each with 13 plots measuring 10 x 10 m(2), and which radiate from rivers in the Masai Mara National Reserve and adjoining community pastoral ranches. For each plot, we measured the height and visually estimated the percent cover of grasses, forbs, shrubs and bare ground, herbivore abundance and species richness. Our results showed that grass height was shortest closest to rivers in both landscapes, increased with increasing distance from rivers in the reserve, but was uniformly short in the pastoral ranches. Shifting mosaics of short grass lawns interspersed with patches of medium to tall grasses occurred within 2.5 km of the rivers in the reserve in areas grazed habitually by hippos. Hence, hippo grazing enhanced the structural heterogeneity of vegetation but livestock grazing had a homogenizing effect in the pastoral ranches. The distribution of biomass and the species richness of other ungulates with distance from rivers followed a quadratic pattern in the reserve, suggesting that hippopotamus grazing attracted more herbivores to the vegetation patches at intermediate distances from rivers in the reserve. However, the distribution of biomass and the species richness of other ungulates followed a linear pattern in the pastoral ranches, implying that herbivores avoided areas grazed heavily by livestock in the pastoral ranches, especially near rivers.</p>