Evidence and Ideology in Macroeconomics: The Case of Investment Cycles

The paper reports the principal findings of a long term research project on the description and explanation of business cycles. The research strongly confirmed the older view that business cycles have large systematic components that take the form of investment cycles. These quasi-periodic movements can be represented as low order, stochastic, dynamic processes with complex eigenvalues. Specifically, there is a fixed investment cycle of about 8 years and an inventory cycle of about 4 years. Maximum entropy spectral analysis was employed for the description of the cycles and continuous time econometrics for the explanatory models. The central explanatory mechanism is the second order accelerator, which incorporates adjustment costs both in relation to the capital stock and the rate of investment. By means of parametric resonance it was possible to show, both theoretically and empirically how cycles aggregate from the micro to the macro level. The same mathematical tool was also used to explain the international convergence of cycles. I argue that the theory of investment cycles was abandoned for ideological, not for evidential reasons. Methodological issues are also discussed

AUX1-mediated root hair auxin influx governs SCFTIR1/AFB-type Ca2+ signaling

Auxin is a key regulator of plant growth and development, but the causal relationship between hormone transport and root responses remains unresolved. Here we describe auxin uptake, together with early steps in signaling, in Arabidopsis root hairs. Using intracellular microelectrodes we show membrane depolarization, in response to IAA in a concentration- and pH-dependent manner. This depolarization is strongly impaired in aux1 mutants, indicating that AUX1 is the major transporter for auxin uptake in root hairs. Local intracellular auxin application triggers Ca2+ signals that propagate as long-distance waves between root cells and modulate their auxin responses. AUX1-mediated IAA transport, as well as IAA- triggered calcium signals, are blocked by treatment with the SCFTIR1/AFB - inhibitor auxinole. Further, they are strongly reduced in the tir1afb2afb3 and the cngc14 mutant. Our study reveals that the AUX1 transporter, the SCFTIR1/AFB receptor and the CNGC14 Ca2+ channel, mediate fast auxin signaling in roots