Replica analysis of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data

Overfitting, which happens when the number of parameters in a model is too large compared to the number of data points available for determining these parameters, is a serious and growing problem in survival analysis. While modern medicine presents us with data of unprecedented dimensionality, these data cannot yet be used effectively for clinical outcome prediction. Standard error measures in maximum likelihood regression, such as p-values and z-scores, are blind to overfitting, and even for Cox's proportional hazards model (the main tool of medical statisticians), one finds in literature only rules of thumb on the number of samples required to avoid overfitting. In this paper we present a mathematical theory of overfitting in regression models for time-to-event data, which aims to increase our quantitative understanding of the problem and provide practical tools with which to correct regression outcomes for the impact of overfitting. It is based on the replica method, a statistical mechanical technique for the analysis of heterogeneous many-variable systems that has been used successfully for several decades in physics, biology, and computer science, but not yet in medical statistics. We develop the theory initially for arbitrary regression models for time-to-event data, and verify its predictions in detail for the popular Cox model.Comment: 37 pages, 9 figure

Crystal Structure of the ZrO Phase at Zirconium/Zirconium Oxide Interfaces

Zirconium-based alloys are used in water-cooled nuclear reactors for both nuclear fuel cladding and structural components. Under this harsh environment, the main factor limiting the service life of zirconium cladding, and hence fuel burn-up efficiency, is water corrosion. This oxidation process has recently been linked to the presence of a sub-oxide phase with well-defined composition but unknown structure at the metal–oxide interface. In this paper, the combination of first-principles materials modeling and high-resolution electron microscopy is used to identify the structure of this sub-oxide phase, bringing us a step closer to developing strategies to mitigate aqueous oxidation in Zr alloys and prolong the operational lifetime of commercial fuel cladding alloys

Scalable Production of Ambient Stable Hybrid Bismuth-based Materials: AACVD of Phenethylammonium Bismuth Iodide Films

Large homogeneous and adherent coatings of phenethylammonium bismuth iodide were produced using the cost-effective and scalable aerosol-assisted chemical vapour deposition (AACVD) methodology. The film morphology was found to depend on the deposition conditions and substrates, resulting in different optical properties to those reported from their spin-coated counterparts. Optoelectronic characterization revealed band bending effects occurring between the hybrid material and semiconducting substrates (TiO2 and FTO) due to heterojunction formation, and the optical bandgap of the hybrid material was calculated from UV-visible and PL spectrometry to be 2.05 eV. Maximum values for hydrophobicity and crystallographic preferential orientation were observed for films deposited on FTO/glass substrates, closely followed by values from films deposited on TiO2/glass substrates

New Symmetries in Crystals and Handed Structures

For over a century, the structure of materials has been described by a combination of rotations, rotation-inversions and translational symmetries. By recognizing the reversal of static structural rotations between clockwise and counterclockwise directions as a distinct symmetry operation, here we show that there are many more structural symmetries than are currently recognized in right- or left-handed handed helices, spirals, and in antidistorted structures composed equally of rotations of both handedness. For example, though a helix or spiral cannot possess conventional mirror or inversion symmetries, they can possess them in combination with the rotation reversal symmetry. Similarly, we show that many antidistorted perovskites possess twice the number of symmetry elements as conventionally identified. These new symmetries predict new forms for "roto" properties that relate to static rotations, such as rotoelectricity, piezorotation, and rotomagnetism. They also enable symmetry-based search for new phenomena, such as multiferroicity involving a coupling of spins, electric polarization and static rotations. This work is relevant to structure-property relationships in all material structures with static rotations such as minerals, polymers, proteins, and engineered structures.Comment: 15 Pages, 4 figures, 3 Tables; Fig. 2b has error

Evaluating the effectiveness of moxidectin treatment in mite-infested mice and development of an in-house PCR assay for detecting Myobia musculi DNA.

Detection and eradication of fur mite infestations in mouse colonies can present a challenge to a laboratory animal facility

Iron-Intercalated Zirconium Diselenide Thin Films from the Low-Pressure Chemical Vapor Deposition of [Fe(η⁵-C₅H₄Se)₂Zr(η⁵-C₅H₅)₂]₂

Transition metal chalcogenide thin films of the type FexZrSe2 have applications in electronic devices, but their use is limited by current synthetic techniques. Here, we demonstrate the synthesis and characterization of Fe-intercalated ZrSe2 thin films on quartz substrates using the low-pressure chemical vapor deposition of the single-source precursor [Fe(η5-C5H4Se)2Zr(η5-C5H5)2]2. Powder X-ray diffraction of the film scraping and subsequent Rietveld refinement of the data showed the successful synthesis of the Fe0.14ZrSe2 phase, along with secondary phases of FeSe and ZrO2. Upon intercalation, a small optical band gap enhancement (Eg(direct)opt = 1.72 eV) is detected in comparison with that of the host material

Spinal cord NR1 serine phosphorylation and NR2B subunit suppression following peripheral inflammation

BACKGROUND: Spinal cord N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors are intimately involved in the development and maintenance of central sensitization. However, the mechanisms mediating the altered function of the NMDA receptors are not well understood. In this study the role of phosphorylation of NR1 splice variants and NR2 subunits was examined following hind paw inflammation in rats. We further examined the level of expression of these proteins following the injury. RESULTS: Lumbar spinal cord NR1 subunits were found to be phosphorylated on serine residues within two hours of the induction of hind paw inflammation with carrageenan. The enhanced NR1 serine phosphorylation reversed within six hours. No phosphorylation on NR1 threonine or tyrosine residues was observed. Likewise, no NR2 subunit phosphorylation was observed on serine, threonine or tyrosine residues. An analysis of NR1 and NR2 protein expression demonstrated no change in the levels of NR1 splice variants or NR2A following the inflammation. However, spinal cord NR2B expression was depressed by the hind paw inflammation. The expression of NR2B remained depressed for more than one week following initiation of the inflammation. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that NR1 serine phosphorylation leads to an initial increase in NMDA receptor activity in the spinal cord following peripheral injury. The suppression of NR2B expression suggests compensation for the enhanced nociceptive activity. These data indicate that spinal cord NMDA receptors are highly dynamic in the development, maintenance and recovery from central sensitization following an injury. Thus, chronic pain therapies targeted to NMDA receptors should be designed for the exact configuration of NMDA receptor subunits and post-translational modifications present during specific stages of the disease

Physical and immunological aspects of exercise in chronic diseases.

Physical inactivity and sedentary lifestyles are believed to be independent risk factors for the occurrence of numerous diseases, including, obesity, Type 2 diabetes, metabolic syndrome, cardiovascular disease, cancer and mental health, all leading to substantial morbidity and/or premature death. It has been found that regular exercise, is associated with better quality of life and health outcomes, and reduces the risk of cardiovascular disease and cancer. Here, we review the effects regular exercise has on mental health and well-being, on the immune system and in cancer, cardiovascular disease, autoimmunity and metabolic syndrome. Is exercise the new immunotherapy to treat diseases