Challenges and Benefits of Standardising Early Warning Systems: A Case Study of New Zealand’s Volcanic Alert Level System

Volcano early warning systems are used globally to communicate volcano-related information to diverse stakeholders ranging from specific user groups to the general public, or both. Within the framework of a volcano early warning system, Volcano Alert Level (VAL) systems are commonly used as a simple communication tool to inform society about the status of activity at a specific volcano. Establishing a VAL system that is effective for multiple volcanoes can be challenging, given that each volcano has specific behavioural characteristics. New Zealand has a wide range of volcano types and geological settings, including rhyolitic calderas capable of very large eruptions (>500 km3) and frequent unrest episodes, explosive andesitic stratovolcanoes, and effusive basaltic eruptions at both caldera and volcanic field settings. There is also a range in eruption frequency, requiring the VAL system to be used for both frequently active ‘open-vent’ volcanoes, and reawakening ‘closed-vent’ volcanoes. Furthermore, New Zealand’s volcanoes are situated in a variety of risk settings ranging from the Auckland Volcanic Field, which lies beneath a city of 1.4 million people; to Mt. Ruapehu, the location of popular ski fields that are occasionally impacted by ballistics and lahars, and produces tephra that falls in distant cities. These wide-ranging characteristics and their impact on society provide opportunities to learn from New Zealand’s experience with VAL systems, and the adoption of a standardised single VAL system for all of New Zealand’s volcanoes following a review in 2014. This chapter outlines the results of qualitative research conducted in 2010–2014 with key stakeholders and scientists, including from the volcano observatory at GNS Science, to ensure that the resulting standardised VAL system is an effective communication tool. A number of difficulties were faced in revising the VAL system so that it remains effective for all of the volcanic settings that exist in New Zealand. If warning products are standardised too much, end-user decision making and action can be limited when unusual situations occur, e.g., there may be loss of specific relevance in the alert message. Specific decision-making should be based on more specific parameters than the VAL alone, however wider VAL system standardisation can increase credibility, a known requirement for effective warning, by ensuring that warning sources are clear, trusted and widely understood. With a credible source, user groups are less likely to look for alternatives or confirmation, leading to faster action. Here we consider volcanic warnings within the wider concept of end-to-end multi-hazard early warning systems including detection, evaluation, notification, decision-making and action elements (based on Carsell et al. 2004)

Formation of unique nanocrystalline Cu-In-Se bulk pn homojunctions for opto-electronic devices

Semiconductor pn junctions, integrated in optoelectronic devices require high quality crystals, made by expensive, technically difficult processes. Bulk heterojunction (BHJ) structures offer practical alternatives to circumvent the cost, flexibility and scale-up challenges of crystalline planar pn junctions. Fabrication methods for the current organic or inorganic BHJ structures invariably create interface mismatch and low doping issues. To overcome such issues, we devised an innovative approach, founded on novel inorganic material system that ensued from single-step electrodeposited copper-indium-selenide compounds. Surface analytical microscopies and spectroscopies reveal unusual phenomena, electro-optical properties and quantum effects. They support the formation of highly-ordered, sharp, abrupt 3-dimensional nanoscale pn BHJs that facilitate efficient charge carrier separation and transport, and essentially perform the same functions as crystalline planar pn junctions. This approach offers a low-cost processing platform to create nanocrystalline films, with the attributes necessary for efficient BHJ operation. It allows roll-to-roll processing of flexible devices in simple thin-film form factor.Partial funding for this work is provided by customers of Xcel Energy through a grant from the Renewable Development Fund. The authors gratefully acknowledge sample preparation, analytical contributions and useful discussions with Sharmila Menezes and Yan Li (InterPhases Solar); Senli Guo (Brucker Nano); Terrence McGuckin (Ephemeron Labs); and Nassim Rahimi (HORIBA Scientific). A. Samantilleke acknowledges Prof. L. M. Peter (Bath University, UK) for introducing EER technique

Chemotherapy with cisplatin and vinorelbine for elderly patients with locally advanced or metastatic non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

BACKGROUND: Although modest improvements in the survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) can be achieved with cisplatin-based chemotherapy (CT), its value is disputed in the geriatric setting. In this study, we evaluate the feasibility of vinorelbine/cisplatin CT for elderly NSCLC patients. METHODS: In this pilot phase I/II trial, all patients received CT with vinorelbine 25 mg/m(2), on day 1 and 8, and cisplatin on day 1, in 28 days-cycles. After stratification for age (up to 75 years), younger patients were sequentially allocated to moderate cisplatin doses (80 mg/m(2 )or 90 mg/m(2)), and older patients were allocated to lower cisplatin doses (60 mg/m(2 )or 70 mg/m(2)). We recruited patients aged over 70 years with newly diagnosed NSCLC, clinical stage III or IV, Karnofsky performance status ≥ 70%, normal serum creatinine, peripheral neuropathy ≤ grade 1, and no prior cancer therapy. RESULTS: Analysis was by intention to treat. Main toxicities (grade 3–4) was as follows: neutropenia, 20%; anemia, 11%; and thrombocytopenia, 2%; alopecia, 55%; fatigue, 11%; and peripheral neurotoxicity, 2%. No grade 3–4 emesis or renal toxicity occurred. Global median time to progression (TTP) and overall survival (OS) were 27.0 (95% CI: 10.1 to 43.7) weeks and 30.1 (95% CI: 24.4 to 35.8) weeks; 1- and 2-year survival rates were 36.3% and 13.2%, respectively. Overall response rate was 50.0% (95% CI: 35.4% to 64.5%), with 1 complete response; no difference on response rate was noticed according to cisplatin dose. Median overall survival was 30.1 weeks, with 1- and 2-year survival rates of 36.3% and 13.2%, respectively. CONCLUSION: Age does not preclude assessment on the role of cisplatin-vinorelbine CT for elderly NSCLC patients with good performance status and adequate bodily functions

Estimating health-adjusted life expectancy conditional on risk factors: results for smoking and obesity

BACKGROUND: Smoking and obesity are risk factors causing a large burden of disease. To help formulate and prioritize among smoking and obesity prevention activities, estimations of health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for cohorts that differ solely in their lifestyle (e.g. smoking vs. non smoking) can provide valuable information. Furthermore, in combination with estimates of life expectancy (LE), it can be tested whether prevention of obesity and smoking results in compression of morbidity. METHODS: Using a dynamic population model that calculates the incidence of chronic disease conditional on epidemiological risk factors, we estimated LE and HALE at age 20 for a cohort of smokers with a normal weight (BMI < 25), a cohort of non-smoking obese people (BMI>30) and a cohort of 'healthy living' people (i.e. non smoking with a BMI < 25). Health state valuations for the different cohorts were calculated using the estimated disease prevalence rates in combination with data from the Dutch Burden of Disease study. Health state valuations are multiplied with life years to estimate HALE. Absolute compression of morbidity is defined as a reduction in unhealthy life expectancy (LE-HALE) and relative compression as a reduction in the proportion of life lived in good health (LE-HALE)/LE. RESULTS: Estimates of HALE are highest for a 'healthy living' cohort (54.8 years for men and 55.4 years for women at age 20). Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' men at age 20 are 7.8 and 4.6 for respectively smoking and obese men. Differences in HALE compared to 'healthy living' women at age 20 are 6.0 and 4.5 for respectively smoking and obese women. Unhealthy life expectancy is about equal for all cohorts, meaning that successful prevention would not result in absolute compression of morbidity. Sensitivity analyses demonstrate that although estimates of LE and HALE are sensitive to changes in disease epidemiology, differences in LE and HALE between the different cohorts are fairly robust. In most cases, elimination of smoking or obesity does not result in absolute compression of morbidity but slightly increases the part of life lived in good health. CONCLUSION: Differences in HALE between smoking, obese and 'healthy living' cohorts are substantial and similar to differences in LE. However, our results do not indicate that substantial compression of morbidity is to be expected as a result of successful smoking or obesity prevention

Genetic predisposition to obesity leads to increased risk of type 2 diabetes

Obesity is a major risk factor for type 2 diabetes. Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies have identified multiple loci robustly associated with BMI and risk of obesity. However, information on their associations with type 2 diabetes is limited. Such information could help increase our understanding of the link between obesity and type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of 12 obesity susceptibility loci, individually and in combination, with risk of type 2 diabetes in the population-based European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) Norfolk cohort.We genotyped 12 SNPs, identified by GWA studies of BMI, in 20,428 individuals (aged 39-79 years at baseline) with an average follow-up of 12.9 years, during which 729 individuals developed type 2 diabetes. A genetic predisposition score was calculated by adding the BMI-increasing alleles across the 12 SNPs. Associations with incidence of type 2 diabetes were examined by logistic regression models.Of the 12 SNPs, eight showed a trend with increased risk of type 2 diabetes, consistent with their BMI-increasing effects. Each additional BMI-increasing allele in the genetic predisposition score was associated with a 4% increased odds of developing type 2 diabetes (OR 1.041, 95% CI 1.005-1.078; p = 0.02). Adjustment for BMI completely abolished the association with incident type 2 diabetes (OR 1.003, 95% CI 0.967-1.039; p = 0.89).The genetic predisposition to obesity leads to increased risk of developing type 2 diabetes, which is completely mediated by its obesity-predisposing effect

Duplex ventral pancreas

Complete duplication of the ventral pancreatic ductal system in 2 patients is reported. Both patients, during evaluation for recurrent abdominal pain, underwent endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography that revealed typical changes of chronic pancreatitis and pseudocysts confined to 1 ductal system with the other ductal system completely normal. Both ductal systems filled with contrast medium via a common opening at the major papilla. A rudimentary minor papilla was present, but cannulations were unsuccessful. This unusual anomaly of the ventral pancreas with its embryologic basis, diagnosis, and clinical implications is discussed.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/48132/1/261_2005_Article_BF01885095.pd

Is there a U-shaped association between physical activity and falling in older persons?

Summary: This study tests whether the relationship between physical activity and (recurrent) falling is U-shaped. Among 1,337 community-dwelling older persons, no evidence for a nonlinear association was found. If all older persons increase their physical activity level with 100 units, 4% may be prevented to become recurrent fallers. Introduction: Previous studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between physical activity and falling. This study tests this hypothesis and examines whether this relationship is modified by level of physical functioning. Methods: Community-dwelling persons (65+) from the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) were prospectively followed on falls for 3 years after baseline assessment in 1995/1996 (n=1,337). Outcome measures were time to first fall and time to recurrent falling. The LASA Physical Activity Questionnaire was used to calculate physical activity in minutes per day weighted for intensity (range 0-2000). Physical functioning was measured with physical performance tests and self reported functional limitations. Confounders were age, sex, body mass index, chronic diseases, psychotropic medication, cognitive functioning, depressive symptoms, and fear of falling. Results: No evidence for a nonlinear association was found (p for physical activity > 0.20). No significant association was found between physical activity and time to first fall. An increase in physical activity of 100 units led to a 4% decrease in risk of recurrent falling (adjusted hazard ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.92, 0.99). No interactions with physical performance or functional limitations were found (p>0.50). Conclusions: The hypothesized U-shaped relationship between physical activity and falling could not be confirmed. At higher levels of physical activity, the risk of recurrent falling decreased, while no association was found with fall risk

JBrowse: a dynamic web platform for genome visualization and analysis

BACKGROUND: JBrowse is a fast and full-featured genome browser built with JavaScript and HTML5. It is easily embedded into websites or apps but can also be served as a standalone web page. RESULTS: Overall improvements to speed and scalability are accompanied by specific enhancements that support complex interactive queries on large track sets. Analysis functions can readily be added using the plugin framework; most visual aspects of tracks can also be customized, along with clicks, mouseovers, menus, and popup boxes. JBrowse can also be used to browse local annotation files offline and to generate high-resolution figures for publication. CONCLUSIONS: JBrowse is a mature web application suitable for genome visualization and analysis