The effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the Aleutian Low

Past studies have suggested that regional trends in anthropogenic aerosols can influence the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) through modulation of the Aleutian low. However, the robustness of this connection is debated. This study analyzes changes to the Aleutian low in an ensemble of climate models forced with large, idealized global and regional black carbon (BC) and sulfate aerosol perturbations. To isolate the role of ocean feedbacks, the experiments are performed with an interactive ocean and with prescribed sea surface temperatures. The results show a robust weakening of the Aleutian low forced by a global tenfold increase in BC in both experiment configurations. A linearized steady-state primitive equation model is forced with diabatic heating anomalies to investigate the mechanisms through which heating from BC emissions influences the Aleutian low. The heating from BC absorption over India and East Asia generates Rossby wave trains that propagate into the North Pacific sector, forming an upper-tropospheric ridge. Sources of BC outside of East Asia enhance the weakening of the Aleutian low. The responses to a global fivefold and regional tenfold increase in sulfate aerosols over Asia show poor consistency across climate models, with a multimodel mean response that does not project strongly onto the Aleutian low. These findings for a large, idealized step increase in regional sulfate aerosol differ from previous studies that suggest the transient increase in sulfate aerosols over Asia during the early twenty-first century weakened the Aleutian low and induced a transition to a negative PDO phase

Reproductive Phase Locking of Mosquito Populations in Response to Rainfall Frequency

The frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events is projected to change in response to global warming. Here we show that these hydrologic changes may have a profound effect on mosquito population dynamics and rates of mosquito-borne disease transmission. We develop a simple model, which treats the mosquito reproductive cycle as a phase oscillator that responds to rainfall frequency forcing. This model reproduces observed mosquito population dynamics and indicates that mosquito-borne disease transmission can be sensitive to rainfall frequency. These findings indicate that changes to the hydrologic cycle, in particular the frequency of moderate to heavy rainfall events, could have a profound effect on the transmission rates of some mosquito-borne diseases

Rapid Evolution in the Most Luminous Galaxies During the First 900 Million Years

The first 900 million years (Myr) to redshift z~6 (the first seven per cent of the age of the Universe) remains largely unexplored for the formation of galaxies. Large samples of galaxies have been found at z~6, but detections at earlier times are uncertain and unreliable. It is not at all clear how galaxies built up from the first stars when the Universe was ~300 Myr old (z~12-15) to z~6, just 600 Myr later. Here we report the results of a search for galaxies at z~7-8, about 700 Myr after the Big Bang, using the deepest near-infrared and optical images ever taken. Under conservative selection criteria we find only one candidate galaxy at z~7-8, where ten would be expected if there were no evolution in the galaxy population between z~7-8 and z~6. Using less conservative criteria, there are four candidates, where 17 would be expected with no evolution. This demonstrates that very luminous galaxies are quite rare 700 Myr after the Big Bang. The simplest explanation is that the Universe is just too young to have built up many luminous galaxies at z~7-8 by the hierarchical merging of small galaxies.Comment: Accepted for publication in Nature, 20 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables (includes Supplementary Information), replaced to match version in pres

Toward a Surrogate Marker of Malaria Exposure: Modeling Longitudinal Antibody Measurements under Outbreak Conditions

Background: Biomarkers of exposure to Plasmodium falciparum would be a useful tool for the assessment of malaria burden and analysis of intervention and epidemiological studies. Antibodies to pre-erythrocytic antigens represent potential surrogates of exposure. Methods and Findings: In an outbreak cohort of U.S. Marines deployed to Liberia, we modeled pre- and post-deployment IgG against P. falciparum sporozoites by immunofluorescence antibody test, and both IgG and IgM against the P. falciparum circumsporozoite protein by enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay. Modeling seroconversion thresholds by a fixed ratio, linear regression or nonlinear regression produced sensitivity for identification of exposed U.S. Marines between 58-70% and specificities between 87-97%, compared with malaria-naïve U.S. volunteers. Exposure was predicted in 30-45% of the cohort. Conclusion: Each of the three models tested has merits in different studies, but further development and validation in endemic populations is required. Overall, these models provide support for an antibody-based surrogate marker of exposure to malaria

Measuring and Comparing Party Ideology and Heterogeneity

Estimates of party ideological positions in Western Democracies yield useful party-level information, but lack the ability to provide insight into intraparty politics. In this paper, we generate comparable measures of latent individual policy positions from elite survey data which enable analysis of elite-level party ideology and heterogeneity. This approach has advantages over both expert surveys and approaches based on behavioral data, such as roll call voting and is directly relevant to the study of party cohesion. We generate a measure of elite positions for several European countries using a common space scaling approach and demonstrate its validity as a measure of party ideology. We then apply these data to determine the sources of party heterogeneity, focusing on the role of intraparty competition in electoral systems, nomination rules, and party goals. We find that policy-seeking parties and centralized party nomination rules reduce party heterogeneity. While intraparty competition has no effect, the presence of these electoral rules conditions the effect of district magnitude

A Passerine Bird's Evolution Corroborates the Geologic History of the Island of New Guinea

New Guinea is a biologically diverse island, with a unique geologic history and topography that has likely played a role in the evolution of species. Few island-wide studies, however, have examined the phylogeographic history of lowland species. The objective of this study was to examine patterns of phylogeographic variation of a common and widespread New Guinean bird species (Colluricincla megarhyncha). Specifically, we test the mechanisms hypothesized to cause geographic and genetic variation (e.g., vicariance, isolation by distance and founder-effect with dispersal). To accomplish this, we surveyed three regions of the mitochondrial genome and a nuclear intron and assessed differences among 23 of the 30 described subspecies from throughout their range. We found support for eight highly divergent lineages within C. megarhyncha. Genetic lineages were found within continuous lowland habitat or on smaller islands, but all individuals within clades were not necessarily structured by predicted biogeographic barriers. There was some evidence of isolation by distance and potential founder-effects. Mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence among lineages was at a level often observed among different species or even genera of birds (5–11%), suggesting lineages within regions have been isolated for long periods of time. When topographical barriers were associated with divergence patterns, the estimated divergence date for the clade coincided with the estimated time of barrier formation. We also found that dispersal distance and range size are positively correlated across lineages. Evidence from this research suggests that different phylogeographic mechanisms concurrently structure lineages of C. megarhyncha and are not mutually exclusive. These lineages are a result of evolutionary forces acting at different temporal and spatial scales concordant with New Guinea's geological history

Comparative Gene Expression Profiling of P. falciparum Malaria Parasites Exposed to Three Different Histone Deacetylase Inhibitors

Histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors are being intensively pursued as potential new drugs for a range of diseases, including malaria. HDAC inhibitors are also important tools for the study of epigenetic mechanisms, transcriptional control, and other important cellular processes. In this study the effects of three structurally related antimalarial HDAC inhibitors on P. falciparum malaria parasite gene expression were compared. The three hydroxamate-based compounds, trichostatin A (TSA), suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA; Vorinostat®) and a 2-aminosuberic acid derivative (2-ASA-9), all caused profound transcriptional effects, with ∼2–21% of genes having >2-fold altered expression following 2 h exposure to the compounds. Only two genes, alpha tubulin II and a hydrolase, were up-regulated by all three compounds after 2 h exposure in all biological replicates examined. The transcriptional changes observed after 2 h exposure to HDAC inhibitors were found to be largely transitory, with only 1–5% of genes being regulated after removing the compounds and culturing for a further 2 h. Despite some structural similarity, the three inhibitors caused quite diverse transcriptional effects, possibly reflecting subtle differences in mode of action or cellular distribution. This dataset represents an important contribution to our understanding of how HDAC inhibitors act on malaria parasites and identifies alpha tubulin II as a potential transcriptional marker of HDAC inhibition in malaria parasites that may be able to be exploited for future development of HDAC inhibitors as new antimalarial agents

Regional Management Units for Marine Turtles: A Novel Framework for Prioritizing Conservation and Research across Multiple Scales

Background: Resolving threats to widely distributed marine megafauna requires definition of the geographic distributions of both the threats as well as the population unit(s) of interest. In turn, because individual threats can operate on varying spatial scales, their impacts can affect different segments of a population of the same species. Therefore, integration of multiple tools and techniques - including site-based monitoring, genetic analyses, mark-recapture studies and telemetry - can facilitate robust definitions of population segments at multiple biological and spatial scales to address different management and research challenges. Methodology/Principal Findings: To address these issues for marine turtles, we collated all available studies on marine turtle biogeography, including nesting sites, population abundances and trends, population genetics, and satellite telemetry. We georeferenced this information to generate separate layers for nesting sites, genetic stocks, and core distributions of population segments of all marine turtle species. We then spatially integrated this information from fine-to coarse-spatial scales to develop nested envelope models, or Regional Management Units (RMUs), for marine turtles globally. Conclusions/Significance: The RMU framework is a solution to the challenge of how to organize marine turtles into units of protection above the level of nesting populations, but below the level of species, within regional entities that might be on independent evolutionary trajectories. Among many potential applications, RMUs provide a framework for identifying data gaps, assessing high diversity areas for multiple species and genetic stocks, and evaluating conservation status of marine turtles. Furthermore, RMUs allow for identification of geographic barriers to gene flow, and can provide valuable guidance to marine spatial planning initiatives that integrate spatial distributions of protected species and human activities. In addition, the RMU framework - including maps and supporting metadata - will be an iterative, user-driven tool made publicly available in an online application for comments, improvements, download and analysis

Exploring Species Limits in Two Closely Related Chinese Oaks

Background. The species status of two closely related Chinese oaks, Quercus liaotungensis and Q. mongolica, has been called into question. The objective of this study was to investigate the species status and to estimate the degree of introgression between the two taxa using different approaches. [br/] Methodology/Principal Findings. Using SSR (simple sequence repeat) and AFLP (amplified fragment length polymorphism) markers, we found that interspecific genetic differentiation is significant and higher than the differentiation among populations within taxa. Bayesian clusters, principal coordinate analysis and population genetic distance trees all classified the oaks into two main groups consistent with the morphological differentiation of the two taxa rather than with geographic locations using both types of markers. Nevertheless, a few individuals in Northeast China and many individuals in North China have hybrid ancestry according to Bayesian assignment. One SSR locus and five AFLPs are significant outliers against neutral expectations in the interspecific FST simulation analysis, suggesting a role for divergent selection in differentiating species.[br/] Main Conclusions/Significance. All results based on SSRs and AFLPs reached the same conclusion: Q. liaotungensis and Q. mongolica maintain distinct gene pools in most areas of sympatry. They should therefore be considered as discrete taxonomic units. Yet, the degree of introgression varies between the two species in different contact zones, which might be caused by different population history or by local environmental factors