The Calibration of Traffic Simulation Models : Report on the assessment of different Goodness of Fit measures and Optimization Algorithms MULTITUDE Project – COST Action TU0903

In the last decades, simulation optimization has received considerable attention from both researchers and practitioners. Simulation optimization is the process of finding the best values of some decision variables for a system whose performance is evaluated using the output of a simulation model. A possible example of simulation optimization is the model calibration. In traffic modelling this topic is particularly relevant since the solutions to the methodological issues arising when setting up a calibration study cannot be posed independently. This calls for methodologies able to check the robustness of a calibration framework as well as further investigations of the issue, in order to identify possible “classes” of problems to be treated in a similar way. Therefore in the present work, first a general method for verifying a traffic micro-simulation calibration procedure (suitable in general for simulation optimization) is described, based on a test with synthetic data. Then it is applied, my means of two different case studies, to draw inferences on the effect that different combinations of parameters to calibrate, optimization algorithm, measures of Goodness of Fit and noise in the data may have on the optimization problem. Results showed the importance of verifying the calibration procedure with synthetic data. In addition they ascertained the need for global optimization solutions, giving new insights into the topic. Research contained within this paper benefited from the participation in EU COST Action TU0903 MULTITUDEJRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Development of Sustainability Scenarios

The purpose of the report is twofold. To begin with, it seeks to set out the objectives of, and methodologies for, the development of socio-economic and environmental scenarios for the European Union up until 2050f. In addition, the report undertakes to place scenario building in a wider political and socio-economic context. The report is structured as follows. In section II, the report compares forecasts and scenarios with a view to highlight common aspects and differences. In section III, the report discusses in more detail the purpose of scenario building against the background of the policy objective to reach sustainability. Section IV, finally, examines some of the methodological issues involved in scenario building and sketches out how scenarios can be built in a meaningful and feasible manner. The report is largely exploratory in nature as it seeks to identify critical issues and questions. The report is, in this respect, akin to one of the key purposes of scenario building itself. Accordingly, scenarios are not only developed as long range planning tool, but also with a view to foster and facilitate communication and reflection.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Potential Impact of Electric Vehicles on the Electric Supply System. A Case Study for the Province of Milan, Italy

The study analyses the impact of the electric vehicles¿ recharging activities on the electric supply system for the Province of Milan with a 2030 time horizon. In particular, the impact is seen both in terms of total electric energy consumption and in power requested to the grid. Because of the long recharging time required by the cars batteries, the probability to have thousands of cars contemporary plugged-in is not negligible. The key issue of the study is a more plausible (in the authors¿ opinion) estimation of the potential electric vehicles market share evolution in the time period considered. The results obtained clearly show that without an appropriate regulation (e.g. the intelligent integration of electric vehicles into the existing power grid as decentralized and flexible energy storage), electric vehicles could heavily impact on the daily requested electric power.JRC.H.4-Transport and air qualit

Assessment of the monitoring methodology for CO₂ emissions from heavy duty vehicles: Pilot phase test-campaign report and analysis of the ex-post verification options

Following a request from DG-Clima and DG-GROW, JRC launched a test-campaign in order to investigate the validity, accuracy and plausibility of the methodology proposed for the verification of the certified CO2 emissions from Heavy Duty Vehicles (aka ex-post verification methodology). In addition scope of the test campaign was to demonstrate the representativeness of the CO2 emissions calculations made by the official simulator (VECTO) by comparing against the actual performance of vehicles. Experiments were conducted on four Euro VI trucks, both on the chassis dyno and on the road with the aim of understanding the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches proposed. Two main verification approaches were investigated, steady state measurements in chassis-dyno / controlled conditions, and measurements under transient conditions on chassis-dyno and actual on-road operating conditions. The official simulation software (VECTO) was used for simulating the operation of vehicles under the different test conditions. The key conclusion of the test campaign is that an ex-post verification method which is based on transient, on-road tests is possible for trucks and comes with the advantage that it could potentially cover also other vehicle types which are difficult to be validated under steady state conditions in a laboratory or on a test track under controlled conditions. However, there is a clear need to work on the details of the test protocol to be finally implemented, define boundary conditions for transient tests on road, and establish the necessary acceptance and rejection margins for any such validation. Finally, additional testing is necessary in order to calculate accurately any systematic deviation between the officially reported, simulated, CO2 values and those actually occurring in reality. VECTO results should be periodically controlled and assessed in order to make sure that its CO2 estimates remain representative and minimize the possibility that discrepancies will occur in the future between the officially reported and actually experienced fuel consumption.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Analytical Framework to Regulate Air Emissions from Maritime Transport

Maritime transport activity is becoming one of the most important topics on sustainability debate. Indeed, a part from industrial activity and energy production, maritime transport is the largest contributors to air pollution and the increasing rate of trade make the problem even more worrying. Scope of this report is to sketch the state of the art on data, methodologies, air emissions estimations, technological and policy options to design a sectorial environmental policy strategy to regulate air emissions from ships. The report gives an overview of the main methods to estimate the air emissions deriving from shipping activities and compares their results to define a reference framework. Particularly attention is done to cost effectiveness analysis of technological and policy options to abate GHG emissions from international maritime transport taking into account the legal regulatory system of this sector, and the main legal and economics constraints to implement a sectorial policy to abate CO2 emissions.JRC.DDG.H.4-Transport and air qualit

openACC. An open database of car-following experiments to study the properties of commercial ACC systems

Commercial Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC) systems are increasingly available as standard options in modern vehicles. At the same time, still little information is openly available on how these systems actually operate and how different is their behavior, depending on the vehicle manufacturer or model.T o reduce this gap, the present paper summarizes the main features of the openACC, an open-access database of different car-following experiments involving a total of 16 vehicles, 11 of which equipped with state-of-the-art commercial ACC systems. As more test campaigns will be carried out by the authors, OpenACC will evolve accordingly. The activity is performed within the framework of the openData policy of the European Commission Joint Research Centre with the objective to engage the whole scientific community towards a better understanding of the properties of ACC vehicles in view of anticipating their possible impacts on traffic flow and prevent possible problems connected to their widespread. A first preliminary analysis on the properties of the 11 ACC systems is conducted in order to showcase the different research topics that can be studied within this open science initiative

Environmental impacts of global supply chain: a review of scientific, policy and legal components for including environmental and climate challenges

During the last two decades globalisation has been a key variable driving economic growth and raising the living standards of nearly everyone on the planet, although not without cost. Indeed, the growth in world trade resulting from globalisation is now increasingly seen as an issue in the scientific and political debate on the environmental impacts of global supply chain and consumption. Most cost efficient locations around the world accelerate the trends towards international specialization causing some distortions of the markets in terms of the use of natural resources. The relative international competitiveness of companies in nations with stronger environmental protection regulations (haven hypothesis) is one argument for looking at alternative global environmental regulatory tools that are compatible with international trade agreements and development policies. Literature recognises that stringent environmental policies can force pollution intensive sectors to move to regions more favourable if the abatement costs are too high. However, trade is not a driver of environmental degradation, but the structure of the markets and the presence of market failures (externalities, no definitions of property rights) are the causes of environmental impacts.This report analyses the key features of global supply chain and its environmental impacts related to biodiversity loss, water conservation, raw material. The report provides a deep analysis on Climate change and global supply chain. It analyses the scientific, legal and policy components of the international debate over carbon and trade. It introduces and analyses the concept of the consumption-based approach and compares it with the production-based one. The reports highlights that policy makers should look beyond the traditional geo-political regions and a consumption-based perspective would represent a significant step in this direction in order to manage a sustainable global supply chain.JRC.H.7-Climate Risk Managemen

Characterization of drivers heterogeneity and its integration within traffic simulation

Drivers heterogeneity and the broad range of vehicle characteristics are considered primarily responsible for the stochasticity observed in road traffic dynamics. Assessing the differences in driving style and incorporating individual driving behaviour in microsimulation has attracted significant attention lately. The first topic is studied extensively in the literature. The second one, on the contrary, remains an open issue. The present study proposes a methodology to characterise driving style in the free-flow regime and to incorporate drivers heterogeneity within a microsimulation framework. The methodology uses explicit and simplified modelling of the vehicle powertrain to separate the drivers behavior from the vehicle characteristics. Results show that inter and intra-driver heterogeneity can be captured by log-normal distributions of well-designed metric.Drivers are classified into three different groups (dynamic, ordinary and timid drivers)

fUel-SAVing trip plannEr (U-SAVE): a product of the JRC PoC Instrument: Final report

Available tools for trip planning mostly rely on travel time and travel distance. Fuel costs, when taken into account, are based on simplified fuel consumption models and are usually independent from vehicle type and technology. Building on the work carried out by the Sustainable Transport Unit of the Joint Research Centre, European Commission, in developing (a.) CO2MPAS, the official tool supporting the WLTP/NEDC Correlation Exercise and allowing the back-translation of a WLTP test to the equivalent NEDC CO2 emission value during the type approval, and (b.) Green Driving, an interactive web-based tool allowing the estimation of fuel costs and CO2 emissions of individual car journeys on the basis of variables such as car segment, engine power, fuel type and driving style, the present project aimed at developing and proving the concept of a routing machine to be used when fuel consumption minimization is considered. Throughout the project a stand-alone off-board trip planner has been developed, the U-SAVE Desktop Version, while a smartphone application, the U-SAVE Navigation Application, is currently under the last development phase, and shall be used once completed as a low cost in-board navigation system. The tool has been extensively validated internally demonstrating both its capability to accurately estimate fuel and energy consumption via alternative trip options, and its capacity to provide a more efficient route when different from the shortest and/or fastest options. An open-access version of the tool is expected to become a reference instrument for private citizens who are concerned about their fuel consumption and a more efficient use of their vehicles, while a premium API-based commercial version of the tool can operate as a viable and scalable business model targeting, among others, established navigation software providers who want to extend their offering by providing an alternative route option to their clients, mainly private companies managing fleets of light-duty vehicles, for whom saving fuel from the daily vehicle operations is of crucial financial importance.JRC.C.4-Sustainable Transpor

Impact of New Mobility Solutions on Travel Behaviour and Its Incorporation into Travel Demand Models

Advancement in the fields of electrification, automation, and digitalisation and emerging social trends are fuelling the transformation of road transport resulting in the introduction of various innovative mobility solutions. Yet the reaction of people to many of the new solutions is still vastly unknown. This creates an unprecedented quandary for transport planners who are requested to design future transport systems and create the related investment plans without fully validated models to base the assessment upon. As some evidence on citizens’ behaviour concerning new mobility solutions starts to be progressively made available, first attempts to update the existing models begin to emerge. Nevertheless, a lot more is needed as some of the transpiring mobility solutions have not yet reached the market, making the corresponding behaviour changes imponderable. In this context, the main purpose of this paper is to provide a review on how travel behaviour changes linked to the deployment of new mobility solutions have been considered in travel demand models. The new mobility solutions studied include carsharing, dynamic ridesharing, micromobility sharing services, and personal and shared autonomous vehicles. An overview and comparison of relevant studies implementing activity or trip-based demand models and other methodologies are presented. The analysis shows that the results of the different studies heavily depend on the extent to which behavioural changes are considered. The results of the review thus point to the need for holistic demand models that carefully mimic the urban reality with everything it has to offer and account for the importance of individual traits in the decision-making processes. Such models need an in-depth understanding of the microscopic mechanisms leading to the travel behaviour shifts linked to the most innovative mobility solutions. To achieve this level of detail, mobility living labs and their real-life experiments and experience with citizens, which are flourishing in Europe, are suggested to play a crucial role in the years to come