粵港澳大灣區的港資製造業經營情況、對灣區經濟貢獻與實現轉型升級發展策略顧問研究報告

本研究報告對於港資製造業這個領域的嶄新研究貢獻，主要歸結為以下幾個類別： 以多項第一手數據表明，並讓香港特區政府重新認識到港資製造業在「延外發展」模式經營下對香港整體經濟佔有非常重要帶動作用、貢獻和地位； 本報告通過挖掘包括國家工商總局在內的大數據方式，從而得出近年包括大灣區以至不同九個市在內的港資製造業企業數目、從業人員數目、註冊資本、營業利潤等的具體數字和變動情況；由於工商總局的註冊或登記數字的個案數比統計局的抽樣為主的統計數字更為具體，因而相關數字能夠更仔細的反映出港資製造業在大灣區內的經營情況，較具有參考價值； 本報告以大數據結合問卷調查、深入訪談等方式交叉分析，互補有無，能夠發現更多港資製造業企業對大灣區的經濟貢獻具體情況，有助外界尤其是特區政府和內地相關部委了解到港資企業特別是港資製造業對整個大灣區經濟的重要性，尤其港資製造業如何對專業服務業產生帶動作用，有助社會各界重新關注振興製造業和實現製造業轉型升級的重要性，從而推出更為切合實際的具體振興方案； 通過對不同企業和行業的深入訪談，可以令大家更為仔細了解港資製造業目前的經營情況、優勢所在和面對的挑戰，有助中小港資製造業企業借鑑相關經驗，從而發展壯大； 這份報告的對策建議部份，內容主要針對包括內地政府、香港特區政府，以及港資製造業企業三大部分，當中具代表性和可操作性的建議，如能獲得有關方面加以關注，對促進港資製造業企業以至整個大灣區的製造業發展均有裨益。有助業界尤其兩地政府知道發展壯大港資製造業事關回應全球產業升級大趨勢，需要讓香港和灣區九市、以至整個廣東和全國的大格局在這大趨勢中去分析和綜合規劃。https://commons.ln.edu.hk/cerp_report/1000/thumbnail.jp

Migration Restrictions and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from a Natural Experiment *

Abstract We estimate the causal effect of immigrants' legal status on criminal behavior exploiting exogenous variation in migration restrictions across nationalities driven by the last round of the European Union (EU) enlargement. Unique individual-level data on a collective clemency bill enacted in Italy five months before the enlargement allow us to compare the post-release criminal record of inmates from new EU member countries with a control group of pardoned inmates from candidate EU member countries. Differences in differences in the probability of rearrest between the two groups before and after the enlargement show that obtaining legal status lowers the recidivism of economically motivated offenders, but only in areas that provide relatively better labor market opportunities to legal immigrants. We provide a search-theoretic model of criminal behavior that is consistent with these results

The Role of Information for Retirement Behavior: Evidence based on the Stepwise Introduction of the Social Security Statement

Abstract In 1995, the Social Security Administration started sending out the annual Social Security Statement. It contains information about the worker's estimated benefits at the ages 62, 65, and 70. I use this unique natural experiment to analyze the retirement and claiming decision making. First, I find that, despite the previous availability of information, the Statement has a significant impact on workers' knowledge about their benefits. These findings are consistent with a model where workers need to gather costly information in order to improve their retirement decision. Second, I use this exogenous variation in knowledge to analyze the optimality of workers' decisions. Several findings suggest that workers do not change their retirement behavior: i) Workers do not change their expected age of retirement after receiving the Statement; ii) monthly claiming patterns do not sho

Widespread infilling of tidal channels and navigable waterways in the human-modified tidal deltaplain of southwest Bangladesh

Since the 1960s, ~5000 km2 of tidal deltaplain in southwest Bangladesh has been embanked and converted to densely inhabited, agricultural islands (i.e., polders). This landscape is juxtaposed to the adjacent Sundarbans, a pristine mangrove forest, both well connected by a dense network of tidal channels that effectively convey water and sediment throughout the region. The extensive embanking in poldered areas, however, has greatly reduced the tidal prism (i.e., volume of water) transported through local channels. We reveal that >600 km of these major waterways have infilled in recent decades, converting to land through enhanced sedimentation and the direct blocking of waterways by embankments and sluice gates. Nearly all of the observed closures (~98%) have occurred along the embanked polder systems, with no comparable changes occurring in channels of the Sundarbans (<2% change). We attribute most of the channel infilling to the local reduction of tidal prism in poldered areas and the associated decline in current velocities. The infilled channels account for ~90 km2 of new land in the last 40–50 years, the rate of which, ~2 km2/yr, offsets the 4 km2/yr that is eroded at the coast, and is equivalent to ~20% of the new land produced naturally at the Ganges-Brahmaputra tidal rivermouth. Most of this new land, called ‘khas’ in Bengali, has been reclaimed for agriculture or aquaculture, contributing to the local economy. However, benefits are tempered by the loss of navigable waterways for commerce, transportation, and fishing, as well as the forced rerouting of tidal waters and sediments necessary to sustain this low-lying landscape against rising sea level. A more sustainable delta will require detailed knowledge of the consequences of these hydrodynamic changes to support more scientifically-grounded management of water, sediment, and tidal energy distribution