Bayesian optimization for materials design

We introduce Bayesian optimization, a technique developed for optimizing time-consuming engineering simulations and for fitting machine learning models on large datasets. Bayesian optimization guides the choice of experiments during materials design and discovery to find good material designs in as few experiments as possible. We focus on the case when materials designs are parameterized by a low-dimensional vector. Bayesian optimization is built on a statistical technique called Gaussian process regression, which allows predicting the performance of a new design based on previously tested designs. After providing a detailed introduction to Gaussian process regression, we introduce two Bayesian optimization methods: expected improvement, for design problems with noise-free evaluations; and the knowledge-gradient method, which generalizes expected improvement and may be used in design problems with noisy evaluations. Both methods are derived using a value-of-information analysis, and enjoy one-step Bayes-optimality

Prognostic significance of immunohistochemically detected breast cancer node metastases in 218 patients

Axillary lymph node metastases detected by immunohistochemistry in standard node-negative patients with breast carcinomas (13 out of 129 infiltrating ductal carcinomas and 37 out of 89 infiltrating lobular carcinomas) do not have any prognostic significance in patients followed up for a long time (respectively 24 and 18 years). Moreover, their pejorative significance in the literature is debatable since the groups and events taken into account are heterogeneous

Material reutilization cycles across industries and production lines

The concept of Industrial Symbiosis aims at organizing industrial activity like a living ecosystem where the by-product outputs of one process are used as valuable raw material input for another process. A significant method for the systematic planning of Industrial Symbiosis is found in input–output matching, which is aimed at collecting material input and output data from companies, and using the results to establish links across industries. The collection and classification of data is crucial to the development of synergies in Industrial Symbiosis. Public and private institutions involved in the planning and development of Industrial Symbiosis rely however on manual interpretation of information in the course of creating synergies. Yet, the evaluation and analysis of these data sources on Industrial Symbiosis topics is a tall order. Within this chapter a method is presented which describes value creation activities according to the Value Creation Module (VCM). They are assessed before they are integrated in Value Creation Networks (VCNs), where alternative uses for by-products are proposed by means of iterative input-output matching of selected value creation factors

Optimizing Taq Polymerase Concentration for Improved Signal-to-Noise in the Broad Range Detection of Low Abundance Bacteria

BACKGROUND:PCR in principle can detect a single target molecule in a reaction mixture. Contaminating bacterial DNA in reagents creates a practical limit on the use of PCR to detect dilute bacterial DNA in environmental or public health samples. The most pernicious source of contamination is microbial DNA in DNA polymerase preparations. Importantly, all commercial Taq polymerase preparations inevitably contain contaminating microbial DNA. Removal of DNA from an enzyme preparation is problematical. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:This report demonstrates that the background of contaminating DNA detected by quantitative PCR with broad host range primers can be decreased greater than 10-fold through the simple expedient of Taq enzyme dilution, without altering detection of target microbes in samples. The general method is: For any thermostable polymerase used for high-sensitivity detection, do a dilution series of the polymerase crossed with a dilution series of DNA or bacteria that work well with the test primers. For further work use the concentration of polymerase that gave the least signal in its negative control (H(2)O) while also not changing the threshold cycle for dilutions of spiked DNA or bacteria compared to higher concentrations of Taq polymerase. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:It is clear from the studies shown in this report that a straightforward procedure of optimizing the Taq polymerase concentration achieved "treatment-free" attenuation of interference by contaminating bacterial DNA in Taq polymerase preparations. This procedure should facilitate detection and quantification with broad host range primers of a small number of bona fide bacteria (as few as one) in a sample

Variation in use of surveillance colonoscopy among colorectal cancer survivors in the United States

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Clinical practice guidelines recommend colonoscopies at regular intervals for colorectal cancer (CRC) survivors. Using data from a large, multi-regional, population-based cohort, we describe the rate of surveillance colonoscopy and its association with geographic, sociodemographic, clinical, and health services characteristics.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied CRC survivors enrolled in the Cancer Care Outcomes Research and Surveillance (CanCORS) study. Eligible survivors were diagnosed between 2003 and 2005, had curative surgery for CRC, and were alive without recurrences 14 months after surgery with curative intent. Data came from patient interviews and medical record abstraction. We used a multivariate logit model to identify predictors of colonoscopy use.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Despite guidelines recommending surveillance, only 49% of the 1423 eligible survivors received a colonoscopy within 14 months after surgery. We observed large regional differences (38% to 57%) across regions. Survivors who received screening colonoscopy were more likely to: have colon cancer than rectal cancer (OR = 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05-1.90); have visited a primary care physician (OR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.14-1.82); and received adjuvant chemotherapy (OR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.27-2.41). Compared to survivors with no comorbidities, survivors with moderate or severe comorbidities were less likely to receive surveillance colonoscopy (OR = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.98 and OR = 0.44, 95% CI: 0.29-0.66, respectively).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Despite guidelines, more than half of CRC survivors did not receive surveillance colonoscopy within 14 months of surgery, with substantial variation by site of care. The association of primary care visits and adjuvant chemotherapy use suggests that access to care following surgery affects cancer surveillance.</p

Dairy products and total calcium intake at 13 years of age and its association with obesity at 21 years of age

Background/objectives: Dairy products and specifically calcium have been suggested to play a role in obesity development but more longitudinal evidence is still needed. The objective of this study was to assess the association between dairy products and total calcium intake at age 13 and body mass index at age 21. Subjects/methods: This longitudinal study included 2159 individuals from the Epidemiological Health Investigation of Teenagers cohort (EPITeen), Porto, Portugal, evaluated at ages 13 and 21. Assessment consisted of anthropometrics measurements and structured questionnaires namely a semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire to appraise food consumption in the past 12 months. Linear regression models were run in 941 individuals with complete information of confounders: gender, follow-up period, parents’ education, physical activity, energy, and total calcium intake. Results: Negative association was found on total calcium intake at age 13 with BMI at age 21 (model 0: β = −0.059 (95% CI: −0.113, −0.004) and model 1: −0.057 (95% CI: −0.113, −0.002)), however, no statistically significant association was found when adjusting for energy intake (model 2: β = −0.031 (95% CI: −0.110, 0.047). There were no associations between milk, yogurt, and cheese consumption at age 13 and BMI at age 21 when adjusting for confounders. Conclusions: This study did not support an independent effect of dairy products or total calcium intake in adolescence on later early adulthood adiposity.This study was funded by FEDER through the Operational Programme Competitiveness and Internationalization and national funding from the Foundation for Science and Technology—FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education) (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-016829), under the project MetHyOS (Ref. FCT PTDC/DTP-EPI/6506/2014) and the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia—Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit) (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006862; Ref. UID/DTP/04750/2013). Also this study was developed with the support of the research teams of the Department of Public Health and Forensic Sciences, and Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine of Porto University; the EPIUnit—Public Health Institute of Porto University; and the EPITeen Cohort Study

Comparing the effect of STan (cardiotocographic electronic fetal monitoring (CTG) plus analysis of the ST segment of the fetal electrocardiogram) with CTG alone on emergency caesarean section rates: study protocol for the STan Australian Randomised controlled Trial (START).

BACKGROUND: Cardiotocography is almost ubiquitous in its use in intrapartum care. Although it has been demonstrated that there is some benefit from continuous intrapartum fetal monitoring using cardiotocography, there is also an increased risk of caesarean section which is accompanied by short-term and long-term risks to the mother and child. There is considerable potential to reduce unnecessary operative delivery with up to a 60% false positive diagnosis of fetal distress using cardiotocography alone. ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram is a promising adjunct to cardiotocography alone, and permits detection of metabolic acidosis of the fetus, potentially reducing false positive diagnosis of fetal distress. METHODS: This study will be a single-centre, parallel-group, randomised controlled trial, conducted over 3 years. The primary hypothesis will be that the proportion of women with an emergency caesarean section on ST analysis will not equal that for women on cardiotocography monitoring alone. Participants will be recruited at the Women's and Children's Hospital, a high-risk specialty facility with approximately 5000 deliveries per annum. A total of 1818 women will be randomised to the treatment or conventional arm with an allocation ratio of 1:1, stratified by parity. The primary outcome is emergency caesarean section (yes/no). Statistical analysis will follow standard methods for randomised trials and will be performed on an intention-to-treat basis. Secondary maternal and neonatal outcomes will also be analysed. Additional study outcomes include psychosocial outcomes, patient preferences and cost-effectiveness. DISCUSSION: Approximately 20% of Australian babies are delivered by emergency caesarean section. This will be the first Australian trial to examine ST analysis of the fetal electrocardiogram as an adjunct to cardiotocography as a potential method for reducing this proportion. The trial will be among the first to comprehensively examine ST analysis, taking into account the impact on psychosocial well-being as well as cost-effectiveness. This research will provide Australian evidence for clinical practice and guideline development as well as for policy-makers and consumers to make informed, evidence-based choices about care in labour. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ANZCTR, ACTRN1261800006268 . Registered on 19 January 2018

Influence of Novel Norovirus GII.4 Variants on Gastroenteritis Outbreak Dynamics in Alberta and the Northern Territories, Canada between 2000 and 2008

BACKGROUND: Norovirus GII.4 is the predominant genotype circulating worldwide over the last decade causing 80% of all norovirus outbreaks with new GII.4 variants reported in parallel with periodic epidemic waves of norovirus outbreaks. The circulating new GII.4 variants and the epidemiology of norovirus outbreaks in Alberta, Canada have not been described. Our hypothesis is that the periodic epidemic norovirus outbreak activity in Alberta was driven by new GII.4 variants evolving by genetic drift. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The Alberta Provincial Public Health Laboratory performed norovirus testing using RT-PCR for suspected norovirus outbreaks in the province and the northern Territories between 2000 and 2008. At least one norovirus strain from 707 out of 1,057 (66.9%) confirmed norovirus outbreaks were successfully sequenced. Phylogenetic analysis was performed using BioNumerics and 617 (91.1%) outbreaks were characterized as caused by GII.4 with 598 assigned as novel variants including: GII.4-1996, GII.4-2002, GII.4-2004, GII.4-2006a, GII.4-2006b, GII.4-2008a and GII.4-2008b. Defining July to June of the following year as the yearly observation period, there was clear biannual pattern of low and high outbreak activity in Alberta. Within this biannual pattern, high outbreak activity followed the emergence of novel GII.4 variants. The two variants that emerged in 2006 had wider geographic distribution and resulted in higher outbreak activity compared to other variants. The outbreak settings were analyzed. Community-based group residence was the most common for both GII.4 variants and non-GII.4 variants. GII.4 variants were more commonly associated with outbreaks in acute care hospitals while outbreaks associated non-GII.4 variants were more commonly seen in school and community social events settings (p<0.01). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The emergence of new norovirus GII.4 variants resulted in an increased norovirus outbreak activity in the following season in a unique biannual pattern in Alberta over an eight year period. The association between antigenic drift of GII.4 strains and epidemic norovirus outbreak activity could be due to changes in host immunity, viral receptor binding efficiency or virulence factors in the new variants. Early detection of novel GII.4 variants provides vital information that could be used to forecast the norovirus outbreak burden, enhance public health preparedness and allocate appropriate resources for outbreak management