Land-use structure, urban growth, and periurban landscape: a multivariate classification of the European cities

Assessment of urbanization and suburbanization patterns and processes in the European Union is becoming increasingly urgent for the formulation of common territorial policies. We hypothesize that the intrinsic characteristics of landscape at the city scale reflect both the local socioeconomic context and the regional trends towards urbanization, possibly representing the contrasting attitude towards suburbanization found in European countries. Using comprehensive information provided by Urban Atlas maps, we propose an exploratory multivariate analysis of eighty-five variables describing land-use composition, landscape structure, and urban form in 283 cities with the aim being to classify the urbanization patterns observed in five European macroregions. Landscape metrics seem to be more powerful in discriminating cities among regions than indicators of land-use composition. The most relevant metrics discriminating among cities are (i) those describing fragmentation processes along the urban gradient and (ii) those evaluating form and patchiness of discontinuous settlements. Landscape and class average patch size and edge density correctly classified cities in more than 80% of cases. In particular, cities in Southern, Eastern, and Northern Europe were identified as three homogeneous groups as far as landscape structure is concerned, confirming the converging urbanization trends in the Mediterranean countries and the peculiar morphological characteristics of post-socialist urban areas

Latent sprawl patterns and the spatial distribution of businesses in a southern European city

The relocation of businesses beyond the consolidated city is an important aspect of recent urbanization trends. With economic restructuring driven by suburbanization and counter-urbanization, Southern European metropolitan areas experienced distinct growth patterns compared with north-western Europe. The present study assesses the impact of recent changes in the spatial distribution of businesses on land-use structure, sprawl trends and land consumption in a Mediterranean urban region (Athens, Greece) with the aim to identify economic drivers of sprawl and to inform urban containment strategies. Businesses showed two distinct localization patterns: manufacture, publishing and transport companies, construction and hotels were concentrated in urban municipalities; real estate, finance, high-tech, telecommunication, mining and energy enterprises settled preferentially in suburban municipalities. Dispersed urban expansion mainly reflects the spatial relocation of economic activities with high returns on capital to cheaper land. High-tech enterprises and finance/real estate businesses dominated the economic structure of municipalities with sprawled settlements. Policies securing economic development and a land-saving spatial structure are increasingly required to work towards integrated measures promoting semi-compact metropolitan poles and containing deregulated urban expansion

Diversification in urban functions as a measure of metropolitan complexity

Newly emerging relationships between form and function reveal the increasingly complex nature of metropolitan regions. The present study investigates spatial diversification in settlement forms and socioeconomic functions in metropolitan Attica (the administrative region including Athens, the capital of Greece), with the aim of implementing a holistic framework assessing urban complexity in contemporary cities. Taken as key components of urban complexity, morphological and functional diversity have been analysed using multi-domain indicators that describe settlement characteristics (land-use, soil sealing, building use, vertical profile of buildings, building age, construction materials) and socioeconomic functions (economic base, working classes, education levels, population age structure, composition of non-native population by citizenship, distribution of personal incomes), thus providing a comprehensive description of local-scale diversification in urban structures. A correlation analysis was used to verify the spatial coherency between individual dimensions of urban diversification. Analysis of global Moran’s spatial autocorrelation index reveals specific gradients of urban diversification that discriminate morphological attributes from socioeconomic functions. Municipalities were profiled on the basis of Pielou’s evenness indexes for each urban dimension: a factor analysis indicates latent patterns characterizing areas with high and low diversification in metropolitan functions. Urban and rural municipalities were, respectively, characterized as the most and least diversified in the study area, with peri-urban municipalities ranking in-between, evidencing a diversification gradient correlated with the distance from downtown Athens. A multidimensional analysis of the most relevant dimensions of metropolitan complexity has proved to be a promising tool for monitoring urban gradients, polycentric development and (latent) socioeconomic transformations in contemporary cities

Towards (spatially) unbalanced development? A joint assessment of regional disparities in socioeconomic and territorial variables in Italy

The present study assesses disparities in the spatial distribution of three indicators evaluating respectively economic growth (per capita value added), sustainable development (a sustainable development index composing 99 individual variables) and the quality of the natural capital (Environmental Sensitive Area Index composing 14 individual variables) in Italy. The analysis was carried out on three different geographical domains (3 divisions (north, central and south Italy), 20 administrative regions and 103 provinces) with municipalities as the elementary spatial unit. While the distribution of the three indicators was coherent across space, the coefficient of variation of the three indicators, taken as a proxy of regional disparities, showed a contrasting spatial pattern. Domains with higher average values of the sustainable development index showed a lower variability among municipalities, indicating a less divided territorial context. By contrast, income and natural capital disparities are decoupled from the average level of the respective indexes. Multivariate analysis identifies a north-south gradient reflecting the divide between competitive and economically-disadvantaged regions in Italy. Results provide an informative base to implement sustainability policies in countries characterized by persistent socioeconomic disparitie

Recession, resilience, local labour markets: wealthier is better?

Economic expansion and recession have shaped the long-term evolution of local economic systems, exemplifying causes and consequences of territorial disparities and alimenting the debate on regional resilience. The present study investigates changes (2004–2013) in the spatial structure of two labour market indicators in Italy (participation and unemployment rates) during the most recent expansion and recession waves, so as to identify socioeconomic and territorial factors influencing short-term performances of local labour markets. Specialization in advanced industry (such as precision mechanics) is one of the most important factors associated to low employment losses during recession in Italy. Our results offers a contribution to the debate on regional resilience by reconnecting it to the more general issue of spatial disparities. We aim to shed light on the impact of institutional change and external shocks on the evolutionary path of local economic systems

Understanding the Spatial Distribution of Forest Fires in a Growing Urban Region: Socioeconomic Indicators Tell You More

The present study analyzes the spatial distribution of 881 forest fires recorded during four recent years (2009-2012) in 59 municipalities of a Mediterranean region (Attica, Greece) characterized by high fire risk and relevant human pressure due to uneven urban expansion. The hypothesis that a defined fire profile (in terms of density, severity and land-use selectivity) on a local scale was associated to a specific set of socioeconomic and territorial variables, was tested explicitly using six fires’ indicators and eight contextual indicators under a multivariate analysis framework. Analysis identified two main dimensions for both forest fires (dimension and selectivity) and the socioeconomic context (demographic variables associated to the urban-rural gradient and average income). Fire density and forest/pastures burnt areas did not correlated to any socioeconomic variable. At the same time, average declared income and elevation of each municipality did not correlated to any fires’ variable. To the contrary, the average fire size, the percentage of burnt area per municipality and the proportion of cropland affected by fires correlated positively with the distance from the inner city and the total surface area of each municipality and negatively with the proportion of compact settlements, population density and growth. These results confirm the importance of the urban-rural divide determining the spatial distribution of forest fires in Attica while pointing out the modest influence of variables such as the socioeconomic status of resident population

Complexity in action: Untangling latent relationships between land quality, economic structures and socio-spatial patterns in Italy

Land quality, a key economic capital supporting local development, is affected by biophysical and anthropogenic factors. Taken as a relevant attribute of economic systems, land quality has shaped the territorial organization of any given region influencing localization of agriculture, industry and settlements. In regions with long-established human-landscape interactions, such as the Mediterranean basin, land quality has determined social disparities and polarization in the use of land, reflecting the action of geographical gradients based on elevation and population density. The present study investigates latent relationships within a large set of indicators profiling local communities and land quality on a fine-grained resolution scale in Italy with the aim to assess the potential impact of land quality on the regional socioeconomic structure. The importance of land quality gradients in the socioeconomic configuration of urban and rural regions was verified analyzing the distribution of 149 socioeconomic and environmental indicators organized in 5 themes and 17 research dimensions. Agriculture, income, education and labour market variables discriminate areas with high land quality from areas with low land quality. While differential land quality in peri-urban areas may reflect conflicts between competing actors, moderate (or low) quality of land in rural districts is associated with depopulation, land abandonment, subsidence agriculture, unemployment and low educational levels. We conclude that the socioeconomic profile of local communities has been influenced by land quality in a different way along urban-rural gradients. Policies integrating environmental and socioeconomic measures are required to consider land quality as a pivotal target for sustainable development. Regional planning will benefit from an in-depth understanding of place-specific relationships between local communities and the environment

Mixed Land Use as an Intrinsic Feature of Sprawl: A Short-Term Analysis of Settlement Growth and Population Distribution Using European Urban Atlas

This study investigates the land-use/population mix over time as the base to derive an indicator of urban sprawl. Land-use individual patches (provided by Urban Atlas, hereafter UA, with a detailed spatial geometry at 1:10,000 scale) were associated with the total (resident) population based on official statistics (census enumeration districts and other public data sources), providing a comprehensive mapping of the spatial distribution of population density by land-use class in a representative case study for the Mediterranean region (metropolitan Athens, Greece). Data analysis adopted a mix of statistical techniques, such as descriptive statistics, non-parametric curve interpolation (smoothing splines), and exploratory multivariate statistics, namely hierarchical clustering, non-metric multi-dimensional scaling and confirmative factor analysis. The results of this study indicate a non-linear gradient of density decline from downtown (dominated by compact settlements) to peripheral locations (dominated by natural land). Population density in agricultural land was locally high and increasing over time; this result suggests how mixed land use may be the base of intense sprawl in large metropolitan regions. The methodology implemented in this study can be generalized over the whole sample of European cities included in Urban Atlas, providing a semi-automatic assessment of exurban development and population re-distribution over larger metropolitan regions

Land quality, sustainable development and environmental degradation in agricultural districts: A computational approach based on entropy indexes

Land Degradation (LD) in socio-environmental systems negatively impacts sustainable development paths. This study proposes a framework to LD evaluation based on indicators of diversification in the spatial distribution of sensitive land. We hypothesize that conditions for spatial heterogeneity in a composite index of land sensitivity are more frequently associated to areas prone to LD than spatial homogeneity. Spatial heterogeneity is supposed to be associated with degraded areas that may act as hotspots for future degradation processes. A diachronic analysis (1960-2010) was carried out at the agricultural district scale in Italy to identify environmental factors associated to spatial heterogeneity in the level of land sensitivity to degradation based on the Environmentally Sensitive Area Index (ESAI). In 1960, diversification in the level of land sensitivity measured through two common indexes of entropy (Shannon's diversity and Pielou's evenness) increased significantly with the ESAI, indicating a high level of land sensitivity to degradation. In 2010, surface area classified as 'critical' to LD was the highest in districts with evident diversification in the spatial distribution of ESAI values, confirming the hypothesis formulated above. Entropy indexes, based on observed alignment with the concept of LD, constitute a valuable base to inform mitigation strategies against desertification

forest transition and changes in the socio economic structure of a developed country a long term analysis

The present study analyses historical trends (1861-2011) in the socio-economic structure in Italy using 12 statistical indicators and their latent relationships with the long-term forest expansion with the aim to assess how changes in the socio-economic context have influenced Forest Transition (FT) at the country scale. Indicators include 3 population and human settlement variables, 3 demographic variables describing population structure, 3 socio-economic variables describing changes in the economic structure and the productive base and 3 environmental variables illustrating changes in forest land cover and protected areas. By developing an exploratory data analysis framework, the study identifies in the time window encompassing 1936-1951 the most probable turning point in the forest-socioeconomic system in Italy indicating also two groups of indicators according to the diverging (linear vs non linear) time trends. The paper also provides an empirical understanding of political, economic, and social forces driving FT at the national level