Predicting climate change using response theory: global averages and spatial patterns

The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere featuring O(105105) degrees of freedom, we show how it is possible to approach such a problem using nonequilibrium statistical mechanics. Response theory allows one to practically compute the time-dependent measure supported on the pullback attractor of the climate system, whose dynamics is non-autonomous as a result of time-dependent forcings. We propose a simple yet efficient method for predicting—at any lead time and in an ensemble sense—the change in climate properties resulting from increase in the concentration of CO22 using test perturbation model runs. We assess strengths and limitations of the response theory in predicting the changes in the globally averaged values of surface temperature and of the yearly total precipitation, as well as in their spatial patterns. The quality of the predictions obtained for the surface temperature fields is rather good, while in the case of precipitation a good skill is observed only for the global average. We also show how it is possible to define accurately concepts like the inertia of the climate system or to predict when climate change is detectable given a scenario of forcing. Our analysis can be extended for dealing with more complex portfolios of forcings and can be adapted to treat, in principle, any climate observable. Our conclusion is that climate change is indeed a problem that can be effectively seen through a statistical mechanical lens, and that there is great potential for optimizing the current coordinated modelling exercises run for the preparation of the subsequent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change

Nicotinamide's Ups and Downs:Consequences for Fertility, Development, Longevity and Diseases of Poverty and Affluence

Aims and Scope: To further explore the role of dietary nicotinamide in both brain development and diseases, particularly those of ageing. Articles cover neurodegenerative disease and cancer. Also discussed are the effects of nicotinamide, contained in meat and supplements and derived from symbionts, on the major transitions of disease and fertility from ancient times up to the present day. A key role for the tryptophan – NAD ‘de novo’ and immune tolerance pathway are discussed at length in the context of fertility and longevity and the transitions from immune paresis to Treg-mediated immune tolerance and then finally to intolerance and their associated diseases. Abstract: Nicotinamide in human evolution increased cognitive power in a positive feedback loop originally involving hunting. As the precursor to metabolic master molecule NAD it is, as vitamin B3, vital for health. Paradoxically, a lower dose on a diverse plant then cereal-based diet fuelled population booms from the Mesolithic onwards, by upping immune tolerance of the foetus. Increased tolerance of risky symbionts, whether in the gut or TB, that excrete nicotinamide co-evolved as buffers for when diet was inadequate. High biological fertility, despite disease trade-offs, avoided the extinction of Homo sapiens and heralded the dawn of a conscious, creative, and pro-fertility culture. Nicotinamide equity now would stabilise populations and prevent NAD-based diseases of poverty and affluence

The impact of loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) for CIN 2,3 on spontaneous preterm delivery in twin pregnancies by assisted reproductive technique: preliminary data.

Abstract The objective of this study was to compare the frequency of spontaneous preterm delivery before 35 weeks in 7 dichorionic twin pregnancies obtained after loop electrosurgical excision procedure (LEEP) for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 2,3 with respect to 21 twin pregnancies without previous cervical treatment. All the pregnancies were obtained after assisted reproduction techniques (ART). Same age at delivery was observed between two groups (p = 0.81) and none of our twin pregnancies after LEEP had a threatened preterm labor while four controls (19%) underwent a spontaneous preterm delivery (p = 0.35). These preliminary data seem to indicate that LEEP may not be responsible of spontaneous preterm delivery in twin pregnancies subsequent to ART

Trend of hpv 16/18 genotypes in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3: Data for 2007–2018

none15noAim: In the post-vaccination era, the starting age and time intervals of cervical screening could change (older age and longer screening intervals). This scenario may be achieved by significantly reducing human papillomavirus (HPV) 16/18 prevalence (genotypes included in the current vaccines). In this regard, assessing the trend over time of these HPV infections in high-grade cervical lesions can provide information on the objective. The present study aimed to evaluate the trend of HPV 16/18 over the years 2007–2018 in women with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) grade 3. Methods: This is a retrospective multi-institutional study including HPV genotyped and unvaccinated women under 30 with CIN3. The sample was divided into the following periods: 2007–2010, 2011–2014, 2015–2018. HPV genotypes were grouped in genotypes 16/18, genotypes 31/33/35/52/58/67 (genetically related to HPV16), genotypes 39/45/59/68/ 70 (genetically related to HPV18), genotypes 31/33/45/52/58 (high-risk types included in the nonavalent vaccine), possibly carcinogenic HPV (genotypes 26/30/53/67/70/73/82/85), low-risk HPV (genotypes 6/11/40/42/43/44/54/55/61). The trend between periods and HPV genotypes was measured using the Cochran–Armitage test for trend. Results: The final analysis included 474 participants. HPV 16/18 prevalence decreased significantly over the years (77.8% vs 68.9% vs 66.0%, respectively, Ptrend=0.027). Possibly carcinogenic HPV (genotypes 26/30/53/67/70/73/82/85) showed a significant negative prevalence trend over time (4.9% vs 1.1% vs 1.3%, respectively, Ptrend=0.046). Finally, there was a significant positive trend over the years for high-risk HPV genotypes 31/33/45/52/58 in women under 25 (9.9% vs 17.0% vs 24.0%, respectively, Ptrend=0.048). Conclusion: The prevalence of CIN3 lesions related to HPV 16/18 genotypes decreased over time from 2007 to 2018. These data highlight a herd effect of the HPV vaccine. However, fifteen years after HPV vaccine introduction, we are still a long way from herd immunity. The increase in high-risk types 31/33/45/52/58 will need to be reassessed when the nonavalent vaccine impact will be more reliable.noneGiannella L.; Delli Carpini G.; Di Giuseppe J.; Bogani G.; Gardella B.; Monti E.; Liverani C.A.; Ghelardi A.; Insinga S.; Montanari M.; Raspagliesi F.; Spinillo A.; Vercellini P.; Roncella E.; Ciavattini A.Giannella, L.; Delli Carpini, G.; Di Giuseppe, J.; Bogani, G.; Gardella, B.; Monti, E.; Liverani, C. A.; Ghelardi, A.; Insinga, S.; Montanari, M.; Raspagliesi, F.; Spinillo, A.; Vercellini, P.; Roncella, E.; Ciavattini, A

From Clinical Research to Clinical Practice in Obstetrics and Gynecology

none3The book describes the significant multidisciplinary research findings at the Università Politecnica delle Marche and the expected future advances. It addresses some of the most dramatic challenges posed by today’s fast-growing, global society and the changes it has caused. It also discusses solutions to improve the wellbeing of human beings. The book covers the main research achievements in the various disciplines of the life sciences, and includes chapters that highlight mechanisms relevant to all aspects of human diseases, the molecular, cellular, and functional basis of therapy, and its translation into the management of people’s health needs. It also describes research on traditional and innovative foods to enhance quality, safety and functionality, and to develop bioactive/nutraceutical compounds. Further chapters address conservation and management of various environments, from the forests to the oceans, describing the studies on countermeasures against climate changes and terrestrial/aquatic pollutants, and on terrestrial/marine biodiversity, ecosystems and landscapes, erosion of genetic biodiversity, innovative aquaculture feed, sustainable crop production and management of forests. Lastly, the book reports the findings of research work on different classes of biomolecules, and on the molecular basis of antibiotic resistances and their diffusion.noneGiannubilo, Stefano Raffaele; Delli Carpini, Giovanni; Ciavattini, AndreaGiannubilo, Stefano Raffaele; Delli Carpini, Giovanni; Ciavattini, Andre