A lumped conceptual model to simulate groundwater level time-series

Lumped, conceptual groundwater models can be used to simulate groundwater level time-series quickly and efficiently without the need for comprehensive modelling expertise. A new model of this type, AquiMod, is presented for simulating groundwater level time-series in unconfined aquifers. Its modular design enables users to implement different model structures to gain understanding about controls on aquifer storage and discharge. Five model structures are evaluated for four contrasting aquifers in the United Kingdom. The ability of different model structures and parameterisations to replicate the observed hydrographs is examined. AquiMod simulates the quasi-sinusoidal hydrographs of the relatively uniform Chalk and Sandstone aquifers most efficiently. It is least efficient at capturing the flashy hydrograph of a heterogeneous, fractured Limestone aquifer. The majority of model parameters demonstrate sensitivity and can be related to available field data. The model structure experiments demonstrate the need to represent vertical aquifer heterogeneity to capture the storage-discharge dynamics efficiently

Reconstruction of multi-decadal groundwater level time-series using a lumped conceptual model

Multi-decadal groundwater level records, which provide information about long-term variability and trends, are relatively rare. Whilst a number of studies have sought to reconstruct river flow records, there have been few attempts to reconstruct groundwater level time-series over a number of decades. Using long rainfall and temperature records, we developed and applied a methodology to do this using a lumped conceptual model. We applied the model to six sites in the UK, in four different aquifers: Chalk, limestone, sandstone and Greensand. Acceptable models of observed monthly groundwater levels were generated at four of the sites, with maximum Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency scores of between 0.84 and 0.93 over the calibration and evaluation periods, respectively. These four models were then used to reconstruct the monthly groundwater level time-series over approximately 60 years back to 1910. Uncertainty in the simulated levels associated with model parameters was assessed using the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation method. Known historical droughts and wet period in the UK are clearly identifiable in the reconstructed levels, which were compared using the Standardized Groundwater Level Index. Such reconstructed records provide additional information with which to improve estimates of the frequency, severity and duration of groundwater level extremes and their spatial coherence, which for example is important for the assessment of the yield of boreholes during drought period

Seasonal forecasting of groundwater levels in principal aquifers of the United Kingdom

To date, the majority of hydrological forecasting studies have focussed on using medium-range (3–15 days) weather forecasts to drive hydrological models and make predictions of future river flows. With recent developments in seasonal (1–3 months) weather forecast skill, such as those from the latest version of the UK Met Office global seasonal forecast system (GloSea5), there is now an opportunity to use similar methodologies to forecast groundwater levels in more slowly responding aquifers on seasonal timescales. This study uses seasonal rainfall forecasts and a lumped groundwater model to simulate groundwater levels at 21 locations in the United Kingdom up to three months into the future. The results indicate that the forecasts have skill; outperforming a persistence forecast and demonstrating reliability, resolution and discrimination. However, there is currently little to gain from using seasonal rainfall forecasts over using site climatology for this type of application. Furthermore, the forecasts are not able to capture extreme groundwater levels, primarily because of inadequacies in the driving rainfall forecasts. The findings also show that the origin of forecast skill, be it from the meteorological input, groundwater model or initial condition, is site specific and related to the groundwater response characteristics to rainfall and antecedent hydro-meteorological conditions

AquiMod 2 User Manual

This user manual describes the second version of AquiMod (AquiMod 2), a simple lumped groundwater level simulation model. It covers all of the existing features of AquiMod and the new features in AquiMod 2. Experienced users will be familiar with much of the content of this user manual and will not need to read it in its entirety. Instead, they may wish to refer to the ‘Release Notes’ and ‘Checklist for moving from AquiMod to AquiMod 2’ sections which can be found at the front of this document, and which include links to the sections of the manual that are relevant to the new features. They may also wish to work through the two additional tutorials in this user manual which cover some of the new features in AquiMod 2 (sections 6.4 and 6.5). As well as the addition of tutorial material and descriptive text for new features, the text covering existing features has also been revised in some cases for the benefit of the reader. This includes, for example, revised mathematical notation to provide consistency across the different module components. All examples shown were undertaken on a computer running Windows 10 (64-bit). Consequently, some aspects of running AquiMod 2 may differ when using a different version of the Windows operating system

Long-range forecasts of UK winter hydrology

Seasonal river flow forecasts are beneficial for planning agricultural activities, river navigation, and for management of reservoirs for public water supply and hydropower generation. In the United Kingdom (UK), skilful seasonal river flow predictions have previously been limited to catchments in lowland (southern and eastern) regions. Here we show that skilful long-range forecasts of winter flows can now be achieved across the whole of the UK. This is due to a remarkable geographical complementarity between the regional geological and meteorological sources of predictability for river flows. Forecast skill derives from the hydrogeological memory of antecedent conditions in southern and eastern parts of the UK and from meteorological predictability in northern and western areas. Specifically, it is the predictions of the atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic that provides the skill at the seasonal timescale. In addition, significant levels of skill in predicting the frequency of winter high flow events is demonstrated, which has the potential to allow flood adaptation measures to be put in place

On the structure and evolution of a polar crown prominence/filament system

Polar crown prominences are made of chromospheric plasma partially circling the Suns poles between 60 and 70 degree latitude. We aim to diagnose the 3D dynamics of a polar crown prominence using high cadence EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/AIA at 304 and 171A and the Ahead spacecraft of the Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO-A)/EUVI at 195A. Using time series across specific structures we compare flows across the disk in 195A with the prominence dynamics seen on the limb. The densest prominence material forms vertical columns which are separated by many tens of Mm and connected by dynamic bridges of plasma that are clearly visible in 304/171A two-color images. We also observe intermittent but repetitious flows with velocity 15 km/s in the prominence that appear to be associated with EUV bright points on the solar disk. The boundary between the prominence and the overlying cavity appears as a sharp edge. We discuss the structure of the coronal cavity seen both above and around the prominence. SDO/HMI and GONG magnetograms are used to infer the underlying magnetic topology. The evolution and structure of the prominence with respect to the magnetic field seems to agree with the filament linkage model.Comment: 24 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in Solar Physics Journal, Movies can be found at http://www2.mps.mpg.de/data/outgoing/panesar

Antibodies That Block or Activate Mouse B Cell Activating Factor of the Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF) Family (BAFF), Respectively, Induce B Cell Depletion or B Cell Hyperplasia.

B cell activating factor of the TNF family (BAFF), also known as B lymphocyte stimulator, is a ligand required for the generation and maintenance of B lymphocytes. In this study, the ability of different monoclonal antibodies to recognize, inhibit, or activate mouse BAFF was investigated. One of them, a mouse IgG1 named Sandy-2, prevented the binding of BAFF to all of its receptors, BAFF receptor, transmembrane activator and calcium modulating ligand interactor, and B cell maturation antigen, at a stoichiometric ratio; blocked the activity of mouse BAFF on a variety of cell-based reporter assays; and antagonized the prosurvival action of BAFF on primary mouse B cells in vitro A single administration of Sandy-2 in mice induced B cell depletion within 2 weeks, down to levels close to those observed in BAFF-deficient mice. This depletion could then be maintained with a chronic treatment. Sandy-2 and a previously described rat IgG1 antibody, 5A8, also formed a pair suitable for the sensitive detection of endogenous circulating BAFF by ELISA or using a homogenous assay. Interestingly, 5A8 and Sandy-5 displayed activities opposite to that of Sandy-2 by stimulating recombinant BAFF in vitro and endogenous BAFF in vivo These tools will prove useful for the detection and functional manipulation of endogenous mouse BAFF and provide an alternative to the widely used BAFF receptor-Fc decoy receptor for the specific depletion of BAFF in mice

Non-local charges on AdS_5 x S^5 and PP-waves

We show the existence of an infinite set of non-local classically conserved charges on the Green-Schwarz closed superstring in a pp-wave background. We find that these charges agree with the Penrose limit of non-local classically conserved charges recently found for the $AdS_5 \times S^5$ Green-Schwarz superstring. The charges constructed in this paper could help to understand the role played by these on the full $AdS_5 \times S^5$ background.Comment: 20 pages. JHEP. v2:references adde

Physics of Solar Prominences: II - Magnetic Structure and Dynamics

Observations and models of solar prominences are reviewed. We focus on non-eruptive prominences, and describe recent progress in four areas of prominence research: (1) magnetic structure deduced from observations and models, (2) the dynamics of prominence plasmas (formation and flows), (3) Magneto-hydrodynamic (MHD) waves in prominences and (4) the formation and large-scale patterns of the filament channels in which prominences are located. Finally, several outstanding issues in prominence research are discussed, along with observations and models required to resolve them.Comment: 75 pages, 31 pictures, review pape

A framework for the local information dynamics of distributed computation in complex systems

The nature of distributed computation has often been described in terms of the component operations of universal computation: information storage, transfer and modification. We review the first complete framework that quantifies each of these individual information dynamics on a local scale within a system, and describes the manner in which they interact to create non-trivial computation where "the whole is greater than the sum of the parts". We describe the application of the framework to cellular automata, a simple yet powerful model of distributed computation. This is an important application, because the framework is the first to provide quantitative evidence for several important conjectures about distributed computation in cellular automata: that blinkers embody information storage, particles are information transfer agents, and particle collisions are information modification events. The framework is also shown to contrast the computations conducted by several well-known cellular automata, highlighting the importance of information coherence in complex computation. The results reviewed here provide important quantitative insights into the fundamental nature of distributed computation and the dynamics of complex systems, as well as impetus for the framework to be applied to the analysis and design of other systems.Comment: 44 pages, 8 figure