An ARIMA-Intervention Analysis Model for the Financial Crisis in China’s Manufacturing Industry

Triggered by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States (U.S.), a financial tsunami has spread rapidly around the globe, from the U.S. to Europe and the rest of the world, causing the world economy to enter a recession. China is no exception, and has suffered a sharp reduction in the growth of its export and manufacturing sectors. In this paper, we attempt to model and analyze the impact of financial crisis on the manufacturing industry in China using data collected from March 2005 to November 2008 by the China Statistical Databases of the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The results indicate that China’s manufacturing industry may have to tolerate a significant negative effect caused by the global financial crisis over a period of time, with its gross industrial output value declining continually throughout 2008 and 2009 before reaching a state of equilibrium. The intervention effect is described in this study as temporary but immediate and abrupt. It is found that the ARIMA-Intervention model is more precise at explaining and analyzing the intervention effects of the financial tsunami

de Sitter String Vacua from Supersymmetric D-terms

We propose a new mechanism for obtaining de Sitter vacua in type IIB string theory compactified on (orientifolded) Calabi-Yau manifolds similar to those recently studied by Kachru, Kallosh, Linde and Trivedi (KKLT). dS vacuum appears in KKLT model after uplifting an AdS vacuum by adding an anti-D3-brane, which explicitly breaks supersymmetry. We accomplish the same goal by adding fluxes of gauge fields within the D7-branes, which induce a D-term potential in the effective 4D action. In this way we obtain dS space as a spontaneously broken vacuum from a purely supersymmetric 4D action. We argue that our approach can be directly extended to heterotic string vacua, with the dilaton potential obtained from a combination of gaugino condensation and the D-terms generated by anomalous U(1) gauge groups.Comment: 17 pages, 1 figur

General Brane Geometries from Scalar Potentials: Gauged Supergravities and Accelerating Universes

We find broad classes of solutions to the field equations for d-dimensional gravity coupled to an antisymmetric tensor of arbitrary rank and a scalar field with non-vanishing potential. Our construction generates these configurations from the solution of a single nonlinear ordinary differential equation, whose form depends on the scalar potential. For an exponential potential we find solutions corresponding to brane geometries, generalizing the black p-branes and S-branes known for the case of vanishing potential. These geometries are singular at the origin with up to two (regular) horizons. Their asymptotic behaviour depends on the parameters of the model. When the singularity has negative tension or the cosmological constant is positive we find time-dependent configurations describing accelerating universes. Special cases give explicit brane geometries for (compact and non-compact) gauged supergravities in various dimensions, as well as for massive 10D supergravity, and we discuss their interrelation. Some examples lift to give new solutions to 10D supergravity. Limiting cases with a domain wall structure preserve part of the supersymmetries of the vacuum. We also consider more general potentials, including sums of exponentials. Exact solutions are found for these with up to three horizons, having potentially interesting cosmological interpretation. We give several additional examples which illustrate the power of our techniques.Comment: 54 pages, 6 figures. Uses JHEP3. Published versio

Flux Compactifications on Calabi-Yau Threefolds

The presence of RR and NS three-form fluxes in type IIB string compactification on a Calabi-Yau orientifold gives rise to a nontrivial superpotential W for the dilaton and complex structure moduli. This superpotential is computable in terms of the period integrals of the Calabi-Yau manifold. In this paper, we present explicit examples of both supersymmetric and nonsupersymmetric solutions to the resulting 4d N=1 supersymmetric no-scale supergravity, including some nonsupersymmetric solutions with relatively small values of W. Our examples arise on orientifolds of the hypersurfaces in $WP^{4}_{1,1,1,1,4}$ and $WP^{4}_{1,1,2,2,6}$. They serve as explicit illustrations of several of the ingredients which have played a role in the recent proposals for constructing de Sitter vacua of string theory.Comment: 30 pages, harvmac big; refs and minor comments adde

Dynamics and Scaling of 2D Polymers in a Dilute Solution

The breakdown of dynamical scaling for a dilute polymer solution in 2D has been suggested by Shannon and Choy [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 79}, 1455 (1997)]. However, we show here both numerically and analytically that dynamical scaling holds when the finite-size dependence of the relevant dynamical quantities is properly taken into account. We carry out large-scale simulations in 2D for a polymer chain in a good solvent with full hydrodynamic interactions to verify dynamical scaling. This is achieved by novel mesoscopic simulation techniques

Quasi-Normal Modes of Schwarzschild Anti-De Sitter Black Holes: Electromagnetic and Gravitational Perturbations

We study the quasi-normal modes (QNM) of electromagnetic and gravitational perturbations of a Schwarzschild black hole in an asymptotically Anti-de Sitter (AdS) spacetime. Some of the electromagnetic modes do not oscillate, they only decay, since they have pure imaginary frequencies. The gravitational modes show peculiar features: the odd and even gravitational perturbations no longer have the same characteristic quasinormal frequencies. There is a special mode for odd perturbations whose behavior differs completely from the usual one in scalar and electromagnetic perturbation in an AdS spacetime, but has a similar behavior to the Schwarzschild black hole in an asymptotically flat spacetime: the imaginary part of the frequency goes as 1/r+, where r+ is the horizon radius. We also investigate the small black hole limit showing that the imaginary part of the frequency goes as r+^2. These results are important to the AdS/CFT conjecture since according to it the QNMs describe the approach to equilibrium in the conformal field theory.Comment: 2 figure

Ricci-flat K\"ahler metrics on crepant resolutions of K\"ahler cones

We prove that a crepant resolution of a Ricci-flat K\"ahler cone X admits a complete Ricci-flat K\"ahler metric asymptotic to the cone metric in every K\"ahler class in H^2_c(Y,R). This result contains as a subcase the existence of ALE Ricci-flat K\"ahler metrics on crepant resolutions of X=C^n /G, where G is a finite subgroup of SL(n,C). We consider the case in which X is toric. A result of A. Futaki, H. Ono, and G. Wang guarantees the existence of a Ricci-flat K\"ahler cone metric if X is Gorenstein. We use toric geometry to construct crepant resolutions.Comment: 26 pages. Accepted for publication in Mathematische Annale

Cosmological solutions in multidimensional model with multiple exponential potential

A family of cosmological solutions with $(n+1)$ Ricci-flat spaces in the theory with several scalar fields and multiple exponential potential is obtained when coupling vectors in exponents obey certain relations. Two subclasses of solutions with power-law and exponential behaviour of scale factors are singled out. It is proved that power-law solutions may take place only when coupling vectors are linearly independent and exponential dependence occurs for linearly dependent set of coupling vectors. A subfamily of solutions with accelerated expansion is singled out. A generalized isotropization behaviours of certain classes of general solutions are found. In quantum case exact solutions to Wheeler-DeWitt equation are obtained and special "ground state" wave functions are considered.Comment: 22 pages, 1 figur

Moduli Stabilization from Fluxes in a Simple IIB Orientifold

We study novel type IIB compactifications on the T^6/Z_2 orientifold. This geometry arises in the T-dual description of Type I theory on T^6, and one normally introduces 16 space-filling D3-branes to cancel the RR tadpoles. Here, we cancel the RR tadpoles either partially or fully by turning on three-form flux in the compact geometry. The resulting (super)potential for moduli is calculable. We demonstrate that one can find many examples of N=1 supersymmetric vacua with greatly reduced numbers of moduli in this system. A few examples with N>1 supersymmetry or complete supersymmetry breaking are also discussed.Comment: 49 pages, harvmac big; v2, corrected some typo