The Open Flux Problem

The heliospheric magnetic field is of pivotal importance in solar and space physics. The field is rooted in the Sun's photosphere, where it has been observed for many years. Global maps of the solar magnetic field based on full-disk magnetograms are commonly used as boundary conditions for coronal and solar wind models. Two primary observational constraints on the models are (1) the open field regions in the model should approximately correspond to coronal holes (CHs) observed in emission and (2) the magnitude of the open magnetic flux in the model should match that inferred from in situ spacecraft measurements. In this study, we calculate both magnetohydrodynamic and potential field source surface solutions using 14 different magnetic maps produced from five different types of observatory magnetograms, for the time period surrounding 2010 July. We have found that for all of the model/map combinations, models that have CH areas close to observations underestimate the interplanetary magnetic flux, or, conversely, for models to match the interplanetary flux, the modeled open field regions are larger than CHs observed in EUV emission. In an alternative approach, we estimate the open magnetic flux entirely from solar observations by combining automatically detected CHs for Carrington rotation 2098 with observatory synoptic magnetic maps. This approach also underestimates the interplanetary magnetic flux. Our results imply that either typical observatory maps underestimate the Sun's magnetic flux, or a significant portion of the open magnetic flux is not rooted in regions that are obviously dark in EUV and X-ray emission

From Predicting Solar Activity to Forecasting Space Weather: Practical Examples of Research-to-Operations and Operations-to-Research

The successful transition of research to operations (R2O) and operations to research (O2R) requires, above all, interaction between the two communities. We explore the role that close interaction and ongoing communication played in the successful fielding of three separate developments: an observation platform, a numerical model, and a visualization and specification tool. Additionally, we will examine how these three pieces came together to revolutionize interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) arrival forecasts. A discussion of the importance of education and training in ensuring a positive outcome from R2O activity follows. We describe efforts by the meteorological community to make research results more accessible to forecasters and the applicability of these efforts to the transfer of space-weather research.We end with a forecaster "wish list" for R2O transitions. Ongoing, two-way communication between the research and operations communities is the thread connecting it all.Comment: 18 pages, 3 figures, Solar Physics in pres

Modelling and Interpreting The Effects of Spatial Resolution on Solar Magnetic Field Maps

Different methods for simulating the effects of spatial resolution on magnetic field maps are compared, including those commonly used for inter-instrument comparisons. The investigation first uses synthetic data, and the results are confirmed with {\it Hinode}/SpectroPolarimeter data. Four methods are examined, one which manipulates the Stokes spectra to simulate spatial-resolution degradation, and three "post-facto" methods where the magnetic field maps are manipulated directly. Throughout, statistical comparisons of the degraded maps with the originals serve to quantify the outcomes. Overall, we find that areas with inferred magnetic fill fractions close to unity may be insensitive to optical spatial resolution; areas of sub-unity fill fractions are very sensitive. Trends with worsening spatial resolution can include increased average field strength, lower total flux, and a field vector oriented closer to the line of sight. Further-derived quantities such as vertical current density show variations even in areas of high average magnetic fill-fraction. In short, unresolved maps fail to represent the distribution of the underlying unresolved fields, and the "post-facto" methods generally do not reproduce the effects of a smaller telescope aperture. It is argued that selecting a method in order to reconcile disparate spatial resolution effects should depend on the goal, as one method may better preserve the field distribution, while another can reproduce spatial resolution degradation. The results presented should help direct future inter-instrument comparisons.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics. The final publication (including full-resolution figures) will be available at http://www.springerlink.co

Signatures of the slow solar wind streams from active regions in the inner corona

Some of local sources of the slow solar wind can be associated with spectroscopically detected plasma outflows at edges of active regions accompanied with specific signatures in the inner corona. The EUV telescopes (e.g. SPIRIT/CORONAS-F, TESIS/CORONAS-Photon and SWAP/PROBA2) sometimes observed extended ray-like structures seen at the limb above active regions in 1MK iron emission lines and described as "coronal rays". To verify the relationship between coronal rays and plasma outflows, we analyze an isolated active region (AR) adjacent to small coronal hole (CH) observed by different EUV instruments in the end of July - beginning of August 2009. On August 1 EIS revealed in the AR two compact outflows with the Doppler velocities V =10-30 km/s accompanied with fan loops diverging from their regions. At the limb the ARCH interface region produced coronal rays observed by EUVI/STEREO-A on July 31 as well as by TESIS on August 7. The rays were co-aligned with open magnetic field lines expanded to the streamer stalks. Using the DEM analysis, it was found that the fan loops diverged from the outflow regions had the dominant temperature of ~1 MK, which is similar to that of the outgoing plasma streams. Parameters of the solar wind measured by STEREO-B, ACE, WIND, STEREO-A were conformed with identification of the ARCH as a source region at the Wang-Sheeley-Arge map of derived coronal holes for CR 2086. The results of the study support the suggestion that coronal rays can represent signatures of outflows from ARs propagating in the inner corona along open field lines into the heliosphere.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physics; 31 Pages; 13 Figure

Parameters of the Magnetic Flux inside Coronal Holes

Parameters of magnetic flux distribution inside low-latitude coronal holes (CHs) were analyzed. A statistical study of 44 CHs based on Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/MDI full disk magnetograms and SOHO/EIT 284\AA images showed that the density of the net magnetic flux, $B_{{\rm net}}$, does not correlate with the associated solar wind speeds, $V_x$. Both the area and net flux of CHs correlate with the solar wind speed and the corresponding spatial Pearson correlation coefficients are 0.75 and 0.71, respectively. A possible explanation for the low correlation between $B_{{\rm net}}$ and $V_x$ is proposed. The observed non-correlation might be rooted in the structural complexity of the magnetic field. As a measure of complexity of the magnetic field, the filling factor, $f(r)$, was calculated as a function of spatial scales. In CHs, $f(r)$ was found to be nearly constant at scales above 2 Mm, which indicates a monofractal structural organization and smooth temporal evolution. The magnitude of the filling factor is 0.04 from the Hinode SOT/SP data and 0.07 from the MDI/HR data. The Hinode data show that at scales smaller than 2 Mm, the filling factor decreases rapidly, which means a mutlifractal structure and highly intermittent, burst-like energy release regime. The absence of necessary complexity in CH magnetic fields at scales above 2 Mm seems to be the most plausible reason why the net magnetic flux density does not seem to be related to the solar wind speed: the energy release dynamics, needed for solar wind acceleration, appears to occur at small scales below 1 Mm.Comment: 6 figures, approximately 23 pages. Accepted in Solar Physic

Evolution of active and polar photospheric magnetic fields during the rise of Cycle 24 compared to previous cycles

The evolution of the photospheric magnetic field during the declining phase and minimum of Cycle 23 and the recent rise of Cycle 24 are compared with the behavior during previous cycles. We used longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the NSO's three magnetographs at Kitt Peak, the Synoptic Optical Long-term Investigations of the Sun (SOLIS) Vector Spectro-Magnetograph (VSM), the Spectromagnetograph and the 512-Channel Magnetograph instruments, and longitudinal full-disk magnetograms from the Mt. Wilson 150-foot tower. We analyzed 37 years of observations from these two observatories that have been observing daily, weather permitting, since 1974, offering an opportunity to study the evolving relationship between the active region and polar fields in some detail over several solar cycles. It is found that the annual averages of a proxy for the active region poloidal magnetic field strength, the magnetic field strength of the high-latitude poleward streams, and the time derivative of the polar field strength are all well correlated in each hemisphere. These results are based on statistically significant cyclical patterns in the active region fields and are consistent with the Babcock-Leighton phenomenological model for the solar activity cycle. There was more hemispheric asymmetry in the activity level, as measured by total and maximum active region flux, during late Cycle 23 (after around 2004), when the southern hemisphere was more active, and Cycle 24 up to the present, when the northern hemisphere has been more active, than at any other time since 1974. The active region net proxy poloidal fields effectively disappeared in both hemispheres around 2004, and the polar fields did not become significantly stronger after this time. We see evidence that the process of Cycle 24 field reversal has begun at both poles.Comment: Accepted for publication in Solar Physic

Origins of the Ambient Solar Wind: Implications for Space Weather

The Sun's outer atmosphere is heated to temperatures of millions of degrees, and solar plasma flows out into interplanetary space at supersonic speeds. This paper reviews our current understanding of these interrelated problems: coronal heating and the acceleration of the ambient solar wind. We also discuss where the community stands in its ability to forecast how variations in the solar wind (i.e., fast and slow wind streams) impact the Earth. Although the last few decades have seen significant progress in observations and modeling, we still do not have a complete understanding of the relevant physical processes, nor do we have a quantitatively precise census of which coronal structures contribute to specific types of solar wind. Fast streams are known to be connected to the central regions of large coronal holes. Slow streams, however, appear to come from a wide range of sources, including streamers, pseudostreamers, coronal loops, active regions, and coronal hole boundaries. Complicating our understanding even more is the fact that processes such as turbulence, stream-stream interactions, and Coulomb collisions can make it difficult to unambiguously map a parcel measured at 1 AU back down to its coronal source. We also review recent progress -- in theoretical modeling, observational data analysis, and forecasting techniques that sit at the interface between data and theory -- that gives us hope that the above problems are indeed solvable.Comment: Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews. Special issue connected with a 2016 ISSI workshop on "The Scientific Foundations of Space Weather." 44 pages, 9 figure

Coronal Magnetic Field Evolution from 1996 to 2012: Continuous Non-potential Simulations

Coupled flux transport and magneto-frictional simulations are extended to simulate the continuous magnetic-field evolution in the global solar corona for over 15 years, from the start of Solar Cycle 23 in 1996. By simplifying the dynamics, our model follows the build-up and transport of electric currents and free magnetic energy in the corona, offering an insight into the magnetic structure and topology that extrapolation-based models cannot. To enable these extended simulations, we have implemented a more efficient numerical grid, and have carefully calibrated the surface flux-transport model to reproduce the observed large-scale photospheric radial magnetic field, using emerging active regions determined from observed line-of-sight magnetograms. This calibration is described in some detail. In agreement with previous authors, we find that the standard flux-transport model is insufficient to simultaneously reproduce the observed polar fields and butterfly diagram during Cycle 23, and that additional effects must be added. For the best-fit model, we use automated techniques to detect the latitude–time profile of flux ropes and their ejections over the full solar cycle. Overall, flux ropes are more prevalent outside of active latitudes but those at active latitudes are more frequently ejected. Future possibilities for space-weather prediction with this approach are briefly assessed

The Origin, Early Evolution and Predictability of Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were discovered in the early 1970s when space-borne coronagraphs revealed that eruptions of plasma are ejected from the Sun. Today, it is known that the Sun produces eruptive flares, filament eruptions, coronal mass ejections and failed eruptions; all thought to be due to a release of energy stored in the coronal magnetic field during its drastic reconfiguration. This review discusses the observations and physical mechanisms behind this eruptive activity, with a view to making an assessment of the current capability of forecasting these events for space weather risk and impact mitigation. Whilst a wealth of observations exist, and detailed models have been developed, there still exists a need to draw these approaches together. In particular more realistic models are encouraged in order to asses the full range of complexity of the solar atmosphere and the criteria for which an eruption is formed. From the observational side, a more detailed understanding of the role of photospheric flows and reconnection is needed in order to identify the evolutionary path that ultimately means a magnetic structure will erupt