Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges

Financial and economic history is strewn with bubbles and crashes, booms and busts, crises and upheavals of all sorts. Understanding the origin of these events is arguably one of the most important problems in economic theory. In this paper, we review recent efforts to include heterogeneities and interactions in models of decision. We argue that the Random Field Ising model (RFIM) indeed provides a unifying framework to account for many collective socio-economic phenomena that lead to sudden ruptures and crises. We discuss different models that can capture potentially destabilising self-referential feedback loops, induced either by herding, i.e. reference to peers, or trending, i.e. reference to the past, and account for some of the phenomenology missing in the standard models. We discuss some empirically testable predictions of these models, for example robust signatures of RFIM-like herding effects, or the logarithmic decay of spatial correlations of voting patterns. One of the most striking result, inspired by statistical physics methods, is that Adam Smith's invisible hand can badly fail at solving simple coordination problems. We also insist on the issue of time-scales, that can be extremely long in some cases, and prevent socially optimal equilibria to be reached. As a theoretical challenge, the study of so-called "detailed-balance" violating decision rules is needed to decide whether conclusions based on current models (that all assume detailed-balance) are indeed robust and generic.Comment: Review paper accepted for a special issue of J Stat Phys; several minor improvements along reviewers' comment

On the Deformation of Dendrites During Directional Solidification of a Nickel-Based Superalloy

Abstract: Synchrotron X-ray imaging has been used to examine in situ the deformation of dendrites that takes place during the solidification of a nickel-based superalloy. By combining absorption and diffraction contrast imaging, deformation events could be classified by their localization and permanence. In particular, a deformation mechanism arising from thermal contraction in a temperature gradient was elucidated through digital image correlation. It was concluded that this mechanism may explain the small misorientations typically observed in single crystal castings

The variability patterns of the TeV blazar PG 1553 + 113 from a decade of MAGIC and multiband observations

PG 1553 + 113 is one of the few blazars with a convincing quasi-periodic emission in the gamma-ray band. The source is also a very high energy (VHE; >100 GeV) gamma-ray emitter. To better understand its properties and identify the underlying physical processes driving its variability, the MAGIC Collaboration initiated a multiyear, multiwavelength monitoring campaign in 2015 involving the OVRO 40-m and Medicina radio telescopes, REM, KVA, and the MAGIC telescopes, Swift and Fermi satellites, and the WEBT network. The analysis presented in this paper uses data until 2017 and focuses on the characterization of the variability. The gamma-ray data show a (hint of a) periodic signal compatible with literature, but the X-ray and VHE gamma-ray data do not show statistical evidence for a periodic signal. In other bands, the data are compatible with the gamma-ray period, but with a relatively high p-value. The complex connection between the low- and high-energy emission and the non-monochromatic modulation and changes in flux suggests that a simple one-zone model is unable to explain all the variability. Instead, a model including a periodic component along with multiple emission zones is required.publishedVersio