CROP INSURANCE VALUATION UNDER ALTERNATIVE YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS

Considerable disagreement exists about the most appropriate characterization of farm-level yield distributions. Yet, the economic importance of alternate yield distribution specifications on insurance valuation, product designs and farm-level risk management has not been investigated or documented. The results of this study demonstrate that large differences in expected payments from popular crop insurance products can arise solely from the parameterization chosen to represent yields. The results suggest that the frequently unexamined yield distribution specification may lead to incorrect conclusions in important areas of insurance and risk management research such as policy rating, and assessment of expected payments from policies.Risk and Uncertainty,

ESTIMATING FARM-LEVEL YIELD DISTRIBUTIONS FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS IN ILLINOIS

Many yield modeling approaches have been developed in attempts to provide accurate characterizations of farm-level yield distributions due to the importance of yield uncertainty in crop insurance design and rating, and for managing farm-level risk. Competing existing models of crop yields accommodate varying skewness, kurtosis, and other departures from normality including features such as multiple modes. Recently, the received view of crop yield modeling has been challenged by Just and Weninger who indicate that there is insufficient evidence to reject normality given data limitations and potential methodological shortcomings in controlling for deterministic components (trend) in yields. They point out that past empirical efforts to estimate and validate specific-farm distributional characterizations have been severely hampered by data limitations. As a result, they argue in favor of normality as an appropriate parameterization of crop yields. This paper investigates alternate representations of farm-level crop yield distributions using a unique data set from the University of Illinois Endowment farms, containing same-site yield observations for a relatively long period of time, and under conditions that closely mirror actual farm conditions in Illinois. Results from alternate econometric model specifications controlling for trend effects suggest that a linear trend provides an adequate representation of crop yields at the farm level during the period covered by the estimations. Specification tests based on a linear-trend model suggest significant heteroskedasticity is present in only a few farms, and that the residuals are white noise. With these data, Jarque-Bera normality test results indicate that normality of detrended yield residuals is rejected by a far greater number of fields than would be explained due to randomness. Thus, to further clarify the issue of yield distribution characterizations, more complete goodness-of-fit measures are compared across a larger set of candidate distributions. The results indicate that the Weibull distribution consistently ranks better than the normal distribution both in fields where normality is rejected and in fields where normality is not rejected. The results highlight the fact that failing to reject normality is not the same as identifying normality as a "best" parameterization, and provide guidance for progressing toward better representations of farm-level crop yields.Productivity Analysis, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Teaching/Communication/Extension/Profession,

CT features of pulmonary arterial hypertension and its major subtypes: a systematic CT evaluation of 292 patients from the ASPIRE Registry

We evaluated the prevalence and prognostic value of CT-pulmonary angiographic (CTPA) measures in 292 treatment naive patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). Pulmonary artery calcification (13%) and thrombus (10%) were exclusively seen in PAH-congenital heart disease. Oesophageal dilation (46%) was most frequent in PAH-systemic sclerosis. Ground glass opacification (GGO) (41%), pericardial effusion (38%), lymphadenopathy (19%) and pleural effusion (11%) were common. On multivariate analysis, inferior vena caval area, the presence of pleural effusion and septal lines predicted outcome. In PAH, CTPA provides diagnostic and prognostic information. In addition, the presence of GGO on a CT performed for unexplained breathlessness should alert the physician to the possibility of PAH

Tactile Language for a Head-Mounted Sensory Augmentation Device

Sensory augmentation is one of the most exciting domains for research in human-machine biohybridicity. The current paper presents the design of a 2nd generation vibrotactile helmet as a sensory augmentation prototype that is being developed to help users to navigate in low visibility environments. The paper outlines a study in which the user navigates along a virtual wall whilst the position and orientation of the user’s head is tracked by a motion capture system. Vibrotactile feedback is presented according to the user’s distance from the virtual wall and their head orientation. The research builds on our previous work by developing a simplified “tactile language” for communicating navigation commands. A key goal is to identify language tokens suitable to a head-mounted tactile interface that are maximally informative, minimize information overload, intuitive, and that have the potential to become ‘experientially transparent

Head-mounted Sensory Augmentation Device: Comparing Haptic and Audio Modality

This paper investigates and compares the effectiveness of haptic and audio modality for navigation in low visibility environment using a sensory augmentation device. A second generation head-mounted vibrotactile interface as a sensory augmentation prototype was developed to help users to navigate in such environments. In our experiment, a subject navigates along a wall relying on the haptic or audio feedbacks as navigation commands. Haptic/audio feedback is presented to the subjects according to the information measured from the walls to a set of 12 ultrasound sensors placed around a helmet and a classification algorithm by using multilayer perceptron neural network. Results showed the haptic modality leads to significantly lower route deviation in navigation compared to auditory feedback. Furthermore, the NASA TLX questionnaire showed that subjects reported lower cognitive workload with haptic modality although both modalities were able to navigate the users along the wall

A life in progress: motion and emotion in the autobiography of Robert M. La Follette

This article is a study of a La Follette’s Autobiography, the autobiography of the leading Wisconsin progressive Robert M. La Follette, which was published serially in 1911 and, in book form, in 1913. Rather than focusing, as have other historians, on which parts of La Follette’s account are accurate and can therefore be trusted, it explains instead why and how this major autobiography was conceived and written. The article shows that the autobiography was the product of a sustained, complex, and often fraught series of collaborations among La Follette’s family, friends, and political allies, and in the process illuminates the importance of affective ties as well as political ambition and commitment in bringing the project to fruition. In the world of progressive reform, it argues, personal and political experiences were inseparable

Tactile Stimulation of the Human Head for Information Display

A series of three studies was conducted to explore the use of tactile stimulation or light tapping of the human head to inform a pilot of possible threats or other situations in the flight environment. Study I confirmed that subjects could achieve 100% detection of the tactile stimuli. Localization performance, measured in Study 2, depended on the number of different stimulus sites and ranged from 93% accuracy for 6 sites to 47% accuracy for 12 sites across the parietal meridian of the head. In Study 3 we investigated the effect of performing the localization task simultaneously with a dual memory/tracking task or an air combat simulation task. These studies demonstrated that tactile information display could be an integral contributor to improved situation awareness, but not without cost to other task performance. The results of Study 3 were also examined with reference to popular models of attention and workload.Yeshttps://us.sagepub.com/en-us/nam/manuscript-submission-guideline

When Right Feels Left: Referral of Touch and Ownership between the Hands

Feeling touch on a body part is paradigmatically considered to require stimulation of tactile afferents from the body part in question, at least in healthy non-synaesthetic individuals. In contrast to this view, we report a perceptual illusion where people experience “phantom touches” on a right rubber hand when they see it brushed simultaneously with brushes applied to their left hand. Such illusory duplication and transfer of touch from the left to the right hand was only elicited when a homologous (i.e., left and right) pair of hands was brushed in synchrony for an extended period of time. This stimulation caused the majority of our participants to perceive the right rubber hand as their own and to sense two distinct touches – one located on the right rubber hand and the other on their left (stimulated) hand. This effect was supported by quantitative subjective reports in the form of questionnaires, behavioral data from a task in which participants pointed to the felt location of their right hand, and physiological evidence obtained by skin conductance responses when threatening the model hand. Our findings suggest that visual information augments subthreshold somatosensory responses in the ipsilateral hemisphere, thus producing a tactile experience from the non-stimulated body part. This finding is important because it reveals a new bilateral multisensory mechanism for tactile perception and limb ownership