Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets : The Case of Brazil in 2002

Using survey data, we document that foreign-owned institutions became more pessimistic than locally owned institutions about the strength of the Brazilian currency around the 2002 presidential elections. As a result of their relative pessimism, foreignowned institutions made larger forecast errors. Consistent with the emergence of their relative pessimism, foreign investors heavily sold Brazilian stocks and the Brazilian currency in futures markets ahead of the 2002 elections. Periods of stronger foreign sell-off were associated with larger equity price declines and larger depreciation of the Brazilian Real in spot and futures markets. These results are consistent with foreign investors’ lack of knowledge of Brazilian institutions contributing to the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian currency and stock market ahead of the 2002 presidential elections.currency crisis ; portfolio flows ; difference of opinions ; elections JEL Codes: F31 ; F36 ; G15

Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: the case of Brazil in 2002

Using survey data, we document that foreign-owned institutions became more pessimistic than locally owned institutions about the strength of the Brazilian currency around the 2002 presidential elections. As a result of their relative pessimism, foreign-owned institutions made larger forecast errors. Consistent with the emergence of their relative pessimism, foreign investors heavily sold Brazilian stocks and the Brazilian currency in futures markets ahead of the 2002 elections. Periods of stronger foreign sell-off were associated with larger equity price declines and larger depreciation of the Brazilian Real in spot and futures markets. These results are consistent with foreign investors’ relative lack of knowledge of Brazilian institutions contributing to the sharp depreciation of the Brazilian currency and stock market ahead of the 2002 presidential elections.

Gravitational wave background in perfect fluid quantum cosmologies

We discuss the gravitational wave background produced by bouncing models based on a full quantum evolution of a universe filled with a perfect fluid. Using an ontological interpretation for the background wave function allows us to solve the mode equations for the tensorial perturbations, and we find the spectral index as a function of the fluid equation of state.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. D (2006

Moist turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection with Neumann and Dirichlet boundary conditions

Turbulent Rayleigh-Benard convection with phase changes in an extended layer between two parallel impermeable planes is studied by means of three-dimensional direct numerical simulations for Rayleigh numbers between 10^4 and 1.5\times 10^7 and for Prandtl number Pr=0.7. Two different sets of boundary conditions of temperature and total water content are compared: imposed constant amplitudes which translate into Dirichlet boundary conditions for the scalar field fluctuations about the quiescent diffusive equilibrium and constant imposed flux boundary conditions that result in Neumann boundary conditions. Moist turbulent convection is in the conditionally unstable regime throughout this study for which unsaturated air parcels are stably and saturated air parcels unstably stratified. A direct comparison of both sets of boundary conditions with the same parameters requires to start the turbulence simulations out of differently saturated equilibrium states. Similar to dry Rayleigh-Benard convection the differences in the turbulent velocity fluctuations, the cloud cover and the convective buoyancy flux decrease across the layer with increasing Rayleigh number. At the highest Rayleigh numbers the system is found in a two-layer regime, a dry cloudless and stably stratified layer with low turbulence level below a fully saturated and cloudy turbulent one which equals classical Rayleigh-Benard convection layer. Both are separated by a strong inversion that gets increasingly narrower for growing Rayleigh number.Comment: 19 pages, 13 Postscript figures, Figures 10,11,12,13, in reduced qualit

Gravitational lens optical scalars in terms of energy-momentum distributions

This is a general work on gravitational lensing. We present new expressions for the optical scalars and the deflection angle in terms of the energy-momentum tensor components of matter distributions. Our work generalizes standard references in the literature where normally stringent assumptions are made on the sources. The new expressions are manifestly gauge invariant, since they are presented in terms of curvature components. We also present a method of approximation for solving the lens equations, that can be applied to any order.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures. Titled changed. Small improvements. References added. Final version published in Phys.Rev.

cTraceo User Manual

Rep. 01/12 - SiPLAB 10/January/2012This internal report describes the C port of the gaussian beam raytracing model TRACEO.This work was funded by National Funds through FCTFoundation for Science and Technology under project SENSOCEAN (PTDC/EEA_ELC/104561/2008)