The academic backbone: longitudinal continuities in educational achievement from secondary school and medical school to MRCP(UK) and the specialist register in UK medical students and doctors

Background: Selection of medical students in the UK is still largely based on prior academic achievement, although doubts have been expressed as to whether performance in earlier life is predictive of outcomes later in medical school or post-graduate education. This study analyses data from five longitudinal studies of UK medical students and doctors from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Two of the studies used the AH5, a group test of general intelligence (that is, intellectual aptitude). Sex and ethnic differences were also analyzed in light of the changing demographics of medical students over the past decades. Methods: Data from five cohort studies were available: the Westminster Study (began clinical studies from 1975 to 1982), the 1980, 1985, and 1990 cohort studies (entered medical school in 1981, 1986, and 1991), and the University College London Medical School (UCLMS) Cohort Study (entered clinical studies in 2005 and 2006). Different studies had different outcome measures, but most had performance on basic medical sciences and clinical examinations at medical school, performance in Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations, and being on the General Medical Council Specialist Register. Results: Correlation matrices and path analyses are presented. There were robust correlations across different years at medical school, and medical school performance also predicted MRCP(UK) performance and being on the GMC Specialist Register. A-levels correlated somewhat less with undergraduate and post-graduate performance, but there was restriction of range in entrants. General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)/O-level results also predicted undergraduate and post-graduate outcomes, but less so than did A-level results, but there may be incremental validity for clinical and post-graduate performance. The AH5 had some significant correlations with outcome, but they were inconsistent. Sex and ethnicity also had predictive effects on measures of educational attainment, undergraduate, and post-graduate performance. Women performed better in assessments but were less likely to be on the Specialist Register. Non-white participants generally underperformed in undergraduate and post-graduate assessments, but were equally likely to be on the Specialist Register. There was a suggestion of smaller ethnicity effects in earlier studies. Conclusions: The existence of the Academic Backbone concept is strongly supported, with attainment at secondary school predicting performance in undergraduate and post-graduate medical assessments, and the effects spanning many years. The Academic Backbone is conceptualized in terms of the development of more sophisticated underlying structures of knowledge ('cognitive capital’ and 'medical capital’). The Academic Backbone provides strong support for using measures of educational attainment, particularly A-levels, in student selection

Construct-level predictive validity of educational attainment and intellectual aptitude tests in medical student selection: meta-regression of six UK longitudinal studies

Background: Measures used for medical student selection should predict future performance during training. A problem for any selection study is that predictor-outcome correlations are known only in those who have been selected, whereas selectors need to know how measures would predict in the entire pool of applicants. That problem of interpretation can be solved by calculating construct-level predictive validity, an estimate of true predictor-outcome correlation across the range of applicant abilities. Methods: Construct-level predictive validities were calculated in six cohort studies of medical student selection and training (student entry, 1972 to 2009) for a range of predictors, including A-levels, General Certificates of Secondary Education (GCSEs)/O-levels, and aptitude tests (AH5 and UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT)). Outcomes included undergraduate basic medical science and finals assessments, as well as postgraduate measures of Membership of the Royal Colleges of Physicians of the United Kingdom (MRCP(UK)) performance and entry in the Specialist Register. Construct-level predictive validity was calculated with the method of Hunter, Schmidt and Le (2006), adapted to correct for right-censorship of examination results due to grade inflation. Results: Meta-regression analyzed 57 separate predictor-outcome correlations (POCs) and construct-level predictive validities (CLPVs). Mean CLPVs are substantially higher (.450) than mean POCs (.171). Mean CLPVs for first-year examinations, were high for A-levels (.809; CI: .501 to .935), and lower for GCSEs/O-levels (.332; CI: .024 to .583) and UKCAT (mean = .245; CI: .207 to .276). A-levels had higher CLPVs for all undergraduate and postgraduate assessments than did GCSEs/O-levels and intellectual aptitude tests. CLPVs of educational attainment measures decline somewhat during training, but continue to predict postgraduate performance. Intellectual aptitude tests have lower CLPVs than A-levels or GCSEs/O-levels. Conclusions: Educational attainment has strong CLPVs for undergraduate and postgraduate performance, accounting for perhaps 65% of true variance in first year performance. Such CLPVs justify the use of educational attainment measure in selection, but also raise a key theoretical question concerning the remaining 35% of variance (and measurement error, range restriction and right-censorship have been taken into account). Just as in astrophysics, ‘dark matter’ and ‘dark energy’ are posited to balance various theoretical equations, so medical student selection must also have its ‘dark variance’, whose nature is not yet properly characterized, but explains a third of the variation in performance during training. Some variance probably relates to factors which are unpredictable at selection, such as illness or other life events, but some is probably also associated with factors such as personality, motivation or study skills

Inequalities in Health and Service Use among People with Borderline Intellectual Impairment

This report, produced in collaboration with Professor Angela Hassiotis and others, sets out the extent to which people with borderline intellectual impairment face inequalities in health and use of services compared with the rest of the population, and seeks to improve awareness of these inequalities. Findings - Borderline intellectual impairment is common, affecting at least one adult in ten in England. The term is used here to refer to people with good verbal skills and living in private households, but who may experience cognitive impairments. - The findings in this report are consistent with previous research: people with borderline intellectual impairment are a disadvantaged group and their needs are not well understood. - Such adults face high levels of poor mental health, poorer general health, and many limitations in their daily lives. - Their level of use of mental health treatment and services does not appear to be commensurate with their higher level of need. This indicates that they are underserved compared with the rest of the population. - This may be due to a lack of professional awareness of their needs, to services not adapting enough to meet those needs, or to difficulties the individual faces in seeking treatment and support. - Adults with borderline intellectual impairment constitute key users of primary and secondary health care, and employment, education and welfare support. Improving awareness of the needs of this group should form part of wider plans to reduce inequalities in health and service use in England. Methods Secondary analysis of data from the Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (APMS) was conducted to profile the circumstances of people with borderline intellectual impairment. APMS is one of the most authoritative and comprehensive national household surveys to assess both intellectual functioning and mental health in adults in England

Can we predict the duration of an interglacial?

Differences in the duration of interglacials have long been apparent in palaeoclimate records of the Late and Middle Pleistocene. However, a systematic evaluation of such differences has been hampered by the lack of a metric that can be applied consistently through time and by difficulties in separating the local from the global component in various proxies. This, in turn, means that a theoretical framework with predictive power for interglacial duration has remained elusive. Here we propose that the interval between the terminal oscillation of the bipolar seesaw and three thousand years (kyr) before its first major reactivation provides an estimate that approximates the length of the sea-level highstand, a measure of interglacial duration. We apply this concept to interglacials of the last 800 kyr by using a recently-constructed record of interhemispheric variability. The onset of interglacials occurs within 2 kyr of the boreal summer insolation maximum/precession minimum and is consistent with the canonical view of Milankovitch forcing pacing the broad timing of interglacials. Glacial inception always takes place when obliquity is decreasing and never after the obliquity minimum. The phasing of precession and obliquity appears to influence the persistence of interglacial conditions over one or two insolation peaks, leading to shorter (~ 13 kyr) and longer (~ 28 kyr) interglacials. Glacial inception occurs approximately 10 kyr after peak interglacial conditions in temperature and CO2, representing a characteristic timescale of interglacial decline. Second-order differences in duration may be a function of stochasticity in the climate system, or small variations in background climate state and the magnitude of feedbacks and mechanisms contributing to glacial inception, and as such, difficult to predict. On the other hand, the broad duration of an interglacial may be determined by the phasing of astronomical parameters and the history of insolation, rather than the instantaneous forcing strength at inception

Shear-free, Irrotational, Geodesic, Anisotropic Fluid Cosmologies

General relativistic anisotropic fluid models whose fluid flow lines form a shear-free, irrotational, geodesic timelike congruence are examined. These models are of Petrov type D, and are assumed to have zero heat flux and an anisotropic stress tensor that possesses two distinct non-zero eigenvalues. Some general results concerning the form of the metric and the stress-tensor for these models are established. Furthermore, if the energy density and the isotropic pressure, as measured by a comoving observer, satisfy an equation of state of the form $p = p(\mu)$, with $\frac{dp}{d\mu} \neq -\frac{1}{3}$, then these spacetimes admit a foliation by spacelike hypersurfaces of constant Ricci scalar. In addition, models for which both the energy density and the anisotropic pressures only depend on time are investigated; both spatially homogeneous and spatially inhomogeneous models are found. A classification of these models is undertaken. Also, a particular class of anisotropic fluid models which are simple generalizations of the homogeneous isotropic cosmological models is studied.Comment: 13 pages LaTe

Which doctors and with what problems contact a specialist service for doctors? A cross sectional investigation

Background: In the United Kingdom, specialist treatment and intervention services for doctors are underdeveloped. The MedNet programme, created in 1997 and funded by the London Deanery, aims to fill this gap by providing a self-referral, face-to-face, psychotherapeutic assessment service for doctors in London and South-East England. MedNet was designed to be a low-threshold service, targeting doctors without formal psychiatric problems. The aim of this study was to delineate the characteristics of doctors utilising the service, to describe their psychological morbidity, and to determine if early intervention is achieved. Methods: A cross-sectional study including all consecutive self-referred doctors (n = 121, 50% male) presenting in 2002–2004 was conducted. Measures included standardised and bespoke questionnaires both self-report and clinician completed. The multi-dimensional evaluation included: demographics, CORE (CORE-OM, CORE-Workplace and CORE-A) an instrument designed to evaluate the psychological difficulties of patients referred to outpatient services, Brief Symptom Inventory to quantify caseness and formal psychiatric illness, and Maslach Burnout Inventory. Results: The most prevalent presenting problems included depression, anxiety, interpersonal, self-esteem and work-related issues. However, only 9% of the cohort were identified as severely distressed psychiatrically using this measure. In approximately 50% of the sample, problems first presented in the preceding year. About 25% were on sick leave at the time of consultation, while 50% took little or no leave in the prior 12 months. A total of 42% were considered to be at some risk of suicide, with more than 25% considered to have a moderate to severe risk. There were no significant gender differences in type of morbidity, severity or days off sick. Conclusion: Doctors displayed high levels of distress as reflected in the significant proportion of those who were at some risk of suicide; however, low rates of severe psychiatric illness were detected. These findings suggest that MedNet clients represent both ends of the spectrum of severity, enabling early clinical engagement for a significant proportion of cases that is of importance both in terms of personal health and protecting patient care, and providing a timely intervention for those who are at risk, a group for whom rapid intervention services are in need and an area that requires further investigation in the UK

Predictive validity of the UK clinical aptitude test in the final years of medical school:a prospective cohort study

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Rapid Systematic Review: The Impact of Social Isolation and Loneliness on the Mental Health of Children and Adolescents in the Context of COVID-19

OBJECTIVE: Disease containment of COVID-19 has necessitated widespread social isolation. We aimed to establish what is known about how loneliness and disease containment measures impact on the mental health in children and adolescents. METHOD: For this rapid review, we searched MEDLINE, PSYCHINFO, and Web of Science for articles published between 01/01/1946 and 03/29/2020. 20% of articles were double screened using pre-defined criteria and 20% of data was double extracted for quality assurance. RESULTS: 83 articles (80 studies) met inclusion criteria. Of these, 63 studies reported on the impact of social isolation and loneliness on the mental health of previously healthy children and adolescents (n=51,576; mean age 15.3) 61 studies were observational; 18 were longitudinal and 43 cross sectional studies assessing self-reported loneliness in healthy children and adolescents. One of these studies was a retrospective investigation after a pandemic. Two studies evaluated interventions. Studies had a high risk of bias although longitudinal studies were of better methodological quality. Social isolation and loneliness increased the risk of depression, and possibly anxiety at the time loneliness was measured and between 0.25 to 9 years later. Duration of loneliness was more strongly correlated with mental health symptoms than intensity of loneliness. CONCLUSION: Children and adolescents are probably more likely to experience high rates of depression and probably anxiety during and after enforced isolation ends. This may increase as enforced isolation continues. Clinical services should offer preventative support and early intervention where possible and be prepared for an increase in mental health problems

Costing the mental health harms of sexual and physical violence in adulthood: a prevalence-based analysis

Background When economists estimate how much violence ‘costs’, they rarely address the longer-term mental health harms resulting from sexual violence or the combined impact of sexual and physical violence, nor have most gender-disaggregated costs. Methods We applied prevalence-based modelling techniques to estimate the annual cost of experience of violence in adulthood, in terms of reduced quality of life and health service costs. Data were drawn from multiple sources, including the general population probability sample Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey. Prevalence and duration estimates used weighted data. Adjusted marginal effects for limiting mental health conditions and substance dependence were estimated for experience of sexual violence, physical violence, and sexual and physical violence combined. Disability weights were applied to estimate associated reduced quality of life and relative risks applied to health service delivery costs. Findings The estimated cost in 2019 of long-term reduced quality of life adults in England experienced because of violence during their adult years was £3,767 mil (€4,290 mil), with associated healthcare costs of £4,130 mil (€4703 mil). Both the costs of long-term lost quality of life and healthcare were higher in women than men. The costs associated with combined sexual and physical violence were particularly high, with an estimated 96% of these costs resulting from experiences of violence in women. Combined sexual and physical violence in women was associated with the highest cost per victim. Conclusions Sexual and physical violence both have substantial and independent associations with long-term mental distress, substance dependence and treatment and service use. Violence reduction interventions have the potential to reduce health service costs and increase population level quality of life. Future costings of sexual violence should fully incorporate the long-term impacts on mental health and gender-disaggregate estimate