Why sustainable, inclusive, and resilient investment makes for efficacious post-COVID medicine

Abstract: The global economy is facing an unprecedented challenge, with the risk of a protracted depression following the response to COVID‐19. In 2014, I argued here that macroeconomic conditions made it a relatively favorable time to kick‐start investments in a resource‐efficient, low carbon economy. Yet the opportunity was, for the most part, squandered. Failure to utilize active fiscal policy contributed to growing private indebtedness, limited productivity and wage growth and widened inequality helping erode trust in institutions. All the while, greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise. This time, there are grounds for optimism that a more coordinated response toward generating an ambitious transition to net zero emissions might contribute to a strong, sustainable, and resilient recovery. This article is categorized under: Climate Economics > Economics of Mitigatio

Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change

As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change is probabilistic, based on ensembles of climate model simulations. In the face of deep uncertainties, the known limitations of this approach are becoming increasingly apparent. An alternative is thus emerging which may be called a ‘storyline’ approach. We define a storyline as a physically self-consistent unfolding of past events, or of plausible future events or pathways. No a priori probability of the storyline is assessed; emphasis is placed instead on understanding the driving factors involved, and the plausibility of those factors. We introduce a typology of four reasons for using storylines to represent uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change: (i) improving risk awareness by framing risk in an event-oriented rather than a probabilistic manner, which corresponds more directly to how people perceive and respond to risk; (ii) strengthening decision-making by allowing one to work backward from a particular vulnerability or decision point, combining climate change information with other relevant factors to address compound risk and develop appropriate stress tests; (iii) providing a physical basis for partitioning uncertainty, thereby allowing the use of more credible regional models in a conditioned manner and (iv) exploring the boundaries of plausibility, thereby guarding against false precision and surprise. Storylines also offer a powerful way of linking physical with human aspects of climate change