Carbon Leakage Revisited: Unilateral Climate Policy with Directed Technical Change

The increase in carbondioxide emissions by some countries in reaction to an emission reduction by countries with climate policy (carbon leakage) is seen as a serious threat to unilateral climate policy.Using a two-country model where only one of the countries enforces an exogenous cap on emissions, this paper analyzes the effect of technical change that can be directed towards the clean or dirty input, on carbon leakage.We show that, as long as technical change cannot be directed, there will always be carbon leakage through the standard terms-of-trade effect.However, once we allow for directed technical change, a counterbalancing induced technology effect arises and carbon leakage will generally be lower.Moreover, we show that when the relative demand for energy is sufficiently elastic, carbon leakage may be negative: the technology effect induces the unconstrained region to voluntarily reduce its own emissions.Keywords

Concepto de equilibrio y no-equilibrio en los modelos genéticos forestales: los enfoques de la población

The environment is changing and so are forests, in their functioning, in species composition, and in the species’ genetic composition. Many empirical and process-based models exist to support forest management. However, most of these models do not consider the impact of environmental changes and forest management on genetic diversity nor on the rate of adaptation of critical plant processes. How genetic diversity and rates of adaptation depend on management actions is a crucial next step in model development. Modelling approaches of genetic and demographic processes that operate in forests are categorized here in two classes. One approach assumes equilibrium conditions in phenotype and tree density, and analyses the characteristics of the demography and the genetic system of the species that determine the rate at which that equilibrium is attained. The other modelling approach does not assume equilibrium conditions and describes both the ecological —and genetic processes to analyse how environmental changes result in selection pressures on functional traits of trees and the consequences of that selection for tree— and ecosystem functioning. The equilibrium approach allows analysing the recovery rate after a perturbation in stable environments, i.e. towards the same pre-perturbation stable state. The nonequilibrium approach allows, in addition to the equilibrium approach, analysing consequences of ongoing environmental changes and forest management, i.e. non-stationary environments, on tree functioning, species composition, and genetic composition of the trees in forest ecosystem. In this paper we describe these two modelling approaches and discuss advantages and disadvantages of them and current knowledge gaps.El ambiente está cambiando así como los bosques, en su funcionamiento, en la composición de especies, y en la composición genética de la especie. Existen muchos modelos empíricos y basados en procesos para apoyar al manejo forestal. Sin embargo, la mayoría de estos modelos no tienen en cuenta el impacto de los cambios ambientales y la gestión forestal sobre la diversidad genética ni sobre la tasa de adaptación a los procesos críticos de la planta. Cómo la diversidad genética y la tasa de adaptación dependerá de las acciones de gestión es un paso futuro decisivo en el desarrollo de los modelos. Los enfoques de modelización de los procesos genéticos y demográficos que operan en los bosques se clasifican en dos clases. Un enfoque asume las condiciones de equilibrio en el fenotipo y la densidad de árboles, y analiza las características de la demografía y el sistema genético de las especies que determinan la velocidad a la que se alcanza ese equilibrio. El otro enfoque de modelización no asume las condiciones de equilibrio y describe tanto los procesos ecológicos y genéticos para analizar cómo los cambios ambientales influyen en la presión de selección en características funcionales de los árboles y en las consecuencias de esta selección para el árbol y el funcionamiento de los ecosistemas. El enfoque de equilibrio permite analizar la tasa de recuperación después de una perturbación en un entorno estable, es decir, hacia el mismo estado que antes de la perturbación estable. El enfoque de no-equilibrio permite, además del enfoque de equilibrio, el análisis de las consecuencias de los actuales cambios del medio ambiente y la ordenación forestal, es decir, ambientes no estacionarios, en el funcionamiento de árboles, la composición de especies, y la composición genética de los árboles en el ecosistema forestal. En este trabajo se describen estos dos métodos de modelización y se discuten las ventajas y desventajas de ellos y las lagunas actuales de conocimientos

A Risk Assessment Model on Pine Wood Nematode in the EU

Pine wood nematode, B. xylophilus poses a serious threat for the European forest industry. This study applies a quantitative risk assessment to analyze the risk of pine wood nematode in the EU, by estimating the reduction expected within forestry stock available for wood supply and its downstream roundwood market. Spatial analysis is used to join information on climate suitability, host distribution, pest spread and value of assets. Economic impacts are presented spatially on a NUTS-2 scale based on partial budgeting technique and for the EU as a whole based on partial equilibrium modeling. Results highlight the Southern regions of Europe as high risk areas with a total impact on available forestry stock of 19,000 M € after 20 years of an outbreak and no regulatory control measures. Welfare analysis of the roundwood market, in which its production represents 2,5% of forestry stock, demonstrates the ability of the producers to pass most of the negative impact to the consumers by charging higher prices. Reduction in social welfare estimated at 2,043 M €, where consumer surplus decreased by 2,622 M € and net producer surplus, affected and non-affected producers, increased by 579 M €.Risk assessment, pine wood nematode, economic analysis, EU, Crop Production/Industries, Risk and Uncertainty,

The influence of personal networks and social support on study attainment of students in university education

In this paper, the influence of personal networks and social support on study attainment of students in university education is examined. Furthermore, the paper aimed at clarifying the possible mediating role of achievement motivation, time spent on studying and working, procrastination and self-esteem. The study is a follow-up of the '89 cohort study, but is restricted to those students who have transferred to university education after finishing secondary education. The students have been approached with a questionnaire in 2004. Multinomial logistic regression shows that social support has no effect on study attainment, but that personal networks do have an effect on attainment. The relationship between social support and personal networks on the one hand and study progress on the other hand is not mediated by the before mentioned variables

Carbon recombination lines in the Orion Bar

We have carried out VLA D-array observations of the C91alpha carbon recombination line as well as Effelsberg 100-m observations of the C65alpha line in a 5 arcmin square region centered between the Bar and the Trapezium stars in the Orion Nebula with spatial resolutions of 10 arcsec and 40 arcsec, respectively. The results show the ionized carbon in the PDR associated with the Orion Bar to be in a thin, clumpy layer sandwiched between the ionization front and the molecular gas. From the observed line widths we get an upper limit on the temperature in the C+ layer of 1500 K and from the line intensity a hydrogen density between 5 10^4 and 2.5 10^5 cm-3 for a homogeneous medium. The observed carbon level population is not consistent with predictions of hydrogenic recombination theory but could be explained by dielectronic recombination. The layer of ionized carbon seen in C91alpha is found to be essentially coincident with emission in the v=1-0 S(1) line of vibrationally excited molecular hydrogen. This is surprising in the light of current PDR models and some possible explanations of the discrepancy are discussed.Comment: 9 pages, 3 Postscript figures, uses aaspp4 and psfig, To Appear in ApJ Letters (accepted Jul. 24, 1997

Indicators of (in)tolerance toward immigrants among European youth:an assessment of measurement invariance in ICCS 2016

Background: Promoting tolerance is an important goal of European education policies focused on education for democratic citizenship and human rights. In this article, we argue that cross-cultural comparability must be empirically assessed and ensured for the measurement of highly relevant indicators that serve to monitor inter-European and international differences in young people's tolerant attitudes toward immigrants.Methods: Using the framework and data provided by the recent International Civic and Citizenship Education Study (ICCS 2016), we examine the extent to which average comparisons of cross-national differences in young people's tolerant attitudes toward immigrants are empirically justified. Multiple-group confirmatory factor analysis (MGCFA) is applied to estimate the measurement model of the concept and test its measurement invariance across fourteen European countries.Results: In line with prior research, our findings show that cross-cultural comparability can be achieved with some modifications. Results of measurement invariance analysis point to the achievement of full scalar invariance with the implication that average scores can be validly compared across the European educational systems under investigation. These findings are largely corroborated by robustness analyses.Conclusions: We conclude by providing information on further scale refinement and improvement. Limitations and implications for further research are outlined and discussed.</p

NIR Spectroscopy with the VLT of a sample of ISO selected Hubble Deep Field South Galaxies

A new population of faint galaxies characterized by an extremely high rate of evolution with redshift up to z~1.5 has recently been discovered by ISO. These sources are likely to contribute significantly to the cosmic far-IR extragalactic background. We have carried out near-infrared VLT-ISAAC spectroscopy of a sample of ISOCAM galaxies from the Hubble Deep Field South. The rest-frame R-band spectral properties of the ISO population resembles that of powerful dust-enshrouded active starburst galaxies.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, to appear in "ISO Surveys of a Dusty Universe", eds. D. Lemke, M. Stickel, K. Wilke, typos correcte