Dynamical modes associated with the Antarctic ozone hole

Generalized Maximum Covariance Analysis (GMCA) has been developed and applied to diagnosing the dynamical modes associated with variations in the Antarctic spring ozone hole. GMCA is used to identify the most important patterns of co-variability between interannual ozone mixing ratio variations in the Antarctic region and temperature, zonal, meridional and vertical velocities between 100 and 10 hPa in the same region. The most important two pairs of GMCA time coefficients show large year-to-year variations and trends, which are connected with the growth of the Antarctic Ozone Hole and the increase of ozone depleting substances. The associated spatial patterns of ozone variations may be characterized as being quasi-symmetric and asymmetric about the pole. These patterns of ozone variations are associated with comparable patterns of variations of temperature and winds through most of the vertical domain. <br><br> The year 2000 is shown to be dominated by the asymmetric mode, whereas the adjacent year 2001 is dominated by the quasi-symmetric mode. A case study, focusing on the asymmetric differences between these two years, shows the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratio, temperature and zonal wind differences to be in the range of 2 e–6 kg/kg, 10°C and 10 m/s, respectively. Budget calculations show that transport processes contribute substantially to the ozone and temperature changes in the middle stratosphere over the Antarctic continent. However, both radiative and chemical processes also play important roles in the changes

Slaves and Free Blacks in Mid-Eighteenth to Mid-Nineteenth Century Cape Neddick, Maine

In coastal southern Maine, a number of towns people enslaved others in the years through the end of the American Revolution. The height of slavery in the region was the period just before the American Revolution. During the revolution, attitudes changed dramatically leading to emancipation in Massachusetts and what is now Maine. This article explores the lives of Cape Neddick’s early black community, before and after freedom, using sparse public documents, contemporary newspaper accounts, local histories, and the unpublished diary of farmer Joseph Weare. The diary provides evidence of how a prominent slaveholder’s grandson frequently cooperated with a neighboring free family over more than forty-five years. That black family has disappeared along with most other vestiges of slavery and early free blacks in rural coastal Maine. Bryan Weare grew up in Cape Neddick and attended York schools, after which he graduated from Bates College with a degree in physics and received his PhD in biophysical sciences from the University at Buffalo. He is currently a professor emeritus of atmospheric science at the University of California at Davis. Inquiries are invited at [email protected]

Climatology and Trends in the Forcing of the Stratospheric Ozone Transport

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/)A thorough analysis of the ozone transport was carried out using the Transformed-Mean Eulerian (TEM) tracer transport equation and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA-40). In this budget analysis, the chemical net production term, which is calculated as the residual of the other terms, displays the correct features of a chemical sink and source term, including location and seasonality, and shows a good agreement in magnitude compared to other methods of calculating ozone loss rates. This study provides further insight into the role of the eddy ozone transport and underlines its fundamental role in the recovery of the ozone hole during spring. The trend analysis reveals that the ozone hole intensification over 1980-2001 time period is not directly related to the trend in chemical losses, but more specifically to the balance in the trends in chemical losses and transport. That is because, in the SH from October to December, the large increase in the chemical destruction of ozone is balanced by an equally large trend in the eddy transport, associated with a small increase of the mean transport. This study shows that the increase in the eddy transport is characterized by more poleward ozone eddy flux by transient waves in the midlatitudes and by stationary waves in the polar region. This is primarily due to the presence of storm tracks in the midlatitudes and of the asymmetric Antarctic topography and ice-sea heating contrasts near the pole. Overall, this study makes clear of the fact that without an increase in the eddy ozone transport over the 1980-2001 time period, the ozone hole over Antarctica would be drastically more severe. This underlines the need for careful diagnostics of the eddy ozone transport in modeling studies of long-term changes in stratospheric ozone.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors and the National Science Foundation grant ATM073369

Climatology and trends in the forcing of the stratospheric zonal-mean flow

The momentum budget of the Transformed Eulerian-Mean (TEM) equation is calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-40) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 (R-2). This study outlines the considerable contribution of unresolved waves, deduced to be gravity waves, to the forcing of the zonal-mean flow. A trend analysis, from 1980 to 2001, shows that the onset and break down of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar night jet has a tendency to occur later in the season in the more recent years. This temporal shift follows long-term changes in planetary wave activity that are mainly due to synoptic waves, with a lag of one month. In the Southern Hemisphere (SH), the polar vortex shows a tendency to persist further into the SH summertime. This also follows a statistically significant decrease in the intensity of the stationary EP flux divergence over the 1980–2001 period. Ozone depletion is well known for strengthening the polar vortex through the thermal wind balance. However, the results of this work show that the SH polar vortex does not experience any significant long-term changes until the month of December, even though the intensification of the ozone hole occurs mainly between September and November. This study suggests that the decrease in planetary wave activity in November provides an important feedback to the zonal wind as it delays the breakdown of the polar vortex. In addition, the absence of strong eddy feedback before November explains the lack of significant trends in the polar vortex in the SH early spring. A long-term weakening in the Brewer-Dobson (B-D) circulation in the polar region is identified in the NH winter and early spring and during the SH late spring and is likely driven by the decrease in planetary wave activity previously mentioned. During the rest of the year, there are large discrepancies in the representation of the B-D circulation and the unresolved waves between the two reanalyses, making trend analyses unreliable.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ATM0733698

The Madden–Julian oscillation wind-convection coupling and the role of moisture processes in the MM5 model

The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) produced by a mesoscale model is investigated using standardized statistical diagnostics. Results show that upper- and lower-level zonal winds display the correct MJO structure, phase speed (8 m s[superscript −1]) and space–time power spectrum. However, the simulated free atmosphere moisture, outgoing longwave radiation and precipitation do not exhibit any clear MJO signal. Yet, the boundary layer moisture, moist static energy and atmospheric instability, measured using a moist static energy instability index, have clear MJO signals. A significant finding is the ability of the model to simulate a realistic MJO phase speed in the winds without reproducing the MJO wind-convection coupling or a realistic propagation in the free atmosphere water vapor. This study suggests that the convergence of boundary layer moisture and the discharge and recharge of the moist static energy and atmospheric instability may be responsible for controlling the speed of propagation of the MJO circulation.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Grant ATM0733698

Improved Fast Randomized Iteration Approach to Full Configuration Interaction

We present three modifications to our recently introduced fast randomized iteration method for full configuration interaction (FCI-FRI) and investigate their effects on the method's performance for Ne, H$_2$O, and N$_2$. The initiator approximation, originally developed for full configuration interaction quantum Monte Carlo, significantly reduces statistical error in FCI-FRI when few samples are used in compression operations, enabling its application to larger chemical systems. The semi-stochastic extension, which involves exactly preserving a fixed subset of elements in each compression, improves statistical efficiency in some cases but reduces it in others. We also developed a new approach to sampling excitations that yields consistent improvements in statistical efficiency and reductions in computational cost. We discuss possible strategies based on our findings for improving the performance of stochastic quantum chemistry methods more generally.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figure

Approximating matrix eigenvalues by subspace iteration with repeated random sparsification

Traditional numerical methods for calculating matrix eigenvalues are prohibitively expensive for high-dimensional problems. Iterative random sparsification methods allow for the estimation of a single dominant eigenvalue at reduced cost by leveraging repeated random sampling and averaging. We present a general approach to extending such methods for the estimation of multiple eigenvalues and demonstrate its performance for several benchmark problems in quantum chemistry.Comment: 31 pages, 7 figure

Accurate estimates of dynamical statistics using memory

Many chemical reactions and molecular processes occur on timescales that are significantly longer than those accessible by direct simulation. One successful approach to estimating dynamical statistics for such processes is to use many short time series observations of the system to construct a Markov state model (MSM), which approximates the dynamics of the system as memoryless transitions between a set of discrete states. The dynamical Galerkin approximation (DGA) generalizes MSMs for the problem of calculating dynamical statistics, such as committors and mean first passage times, by replacing the set of discrete states with a projection onto a basis. Because the projected dynamics are generally not memoryless, the Markov approximation can result in significant systematic error. Inspired by quasi-Markov state models, which employ the generalized master equation to encode memory resulting from the projection, we reformulate DGA to account for memory and analyze its performance on two systems: a two-dimensional triple well and helix-to-helix transitions of the AIB$_9$ peptide. We demonstrate that our method is robust to the choice of basis and can decrease the time series length required to obtain accurate kinetics by an order of magnitude.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figure

Inexact iterative numerical linear algebra for neural network-based spectral estimation and rare-event prediction

Understanding dynamics in complex systems is challenging because there are many degrees of freedom, and those that are most important for describing events of interest are often not obvious. The leading eigenfunctions of the transition operator are useful for visualization, and they can provide an efficient basis for computing statistics such as the likelihood and average time of events (predictions). Here we develop inexact iterative linear algebra methods for computing these eigenfunctions (spectral estimation) and making predictions from a data set of short trajectories sampled at finite intervals. We demonstrate the methods on a low-dimensional model that facilitates visualization and a high-dimensional model of a biomolecular system. Implications for the prediction problem in reinforcement learning are discussed.Comment: 27 pages, 16 figure

Understanding and eliminating spurious modes in variational Monte Carlo using collective variables

The use of neural network parametrizations to represent the ground state in variational Monte Carlo (VMC) calculations has generated intense interest in recent years. However, as we demonstrate in the context of the periodic Heisenberg spin chain, this approach can produce unreliable wave function approximations. One of the most obvious signs of failure is the occurrence of random, persistent spikes in the energy estimate during training. These energy spikes are caused by regions of configuration space that are over-represented by the wave function density, which are called ``spurious modes'' in the machine learning literature. After exploring these spurious modes in detail, we demonstrate that a collective-variable-based penalization yields a substantially more robust training procedure, preventing the formation of spurious modes and improving the accuracy of energy estimates. Because the penalization scheme is cheap to implement and is not specific to the particular model studied here, it can be extended to other applications of VMC where a reasonable choice of collective variable is available.Comment: 12 pages, 13 figure