Optimizing fire station locations for the Istanbul metropolitan municipality

Copyright @ 2013 INFORMSThe Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) seeks to determine locations for additional fire stations to build in Istanbul; its objective is to make residences and historic sites reachable by emergency vehicles within five minutes of a fire station’s receipt of a service request. In this paper, we discuss our development of a mathematical model to aid IMM in determining these locations by using data retrieved from its fire incident records. We use a geographic information system to implement the model on Istanbul’s road network, and solve two location models—set-covering and maximal-covering—as what-if scenarios. We discuss 10 scenarios, including the situation that existed when we initiated the project and the scenario that IMM implemented. The scenario implemented increases the city’s fire station coverage from 58.6 percent to 85.9 percent, based on a five-minute response time, with an implementation plan that spans three years

Evaluation of Sub-National Population Projections: a Case Study for London and the Thames Valley

Sub-national population projections help allocate national funding to local areas for planning local services. For example, water utilities prepare plans to meet future water demand over long-term horizons. Future demand depends on projected populations and households and forecasts of per household and per capita domestic water consumption in supply zones. This paper reports on population projections prepared for a water utility, Thames Water, which supplies water to over nine million people in London and the Thames Valley. Thames Water required an evaluation of the accuracy of the delivered projections against alternatives and estimates of uncertainty. The paper reviews how such evaluations have been made by researchers. The factors leading to variation in sub-national projections are identified. The methods, assumptions and results for English sub-national areas, used in five sets of projections, are compared. There is a consensus across projections about the future fertility and mortality but varying views about the future impact of internal and international migration flows. However, the greatest differences were between projections using ethnic populations. and those using homogeneous populations. Areas with high populations of ethnic minorities were projected to grow faster when an ethnic-specific model was used. This result is important for assessing projections for countries housing diverse populations with different demographic profiles. Historic empirical prediction intervals are used to assess the uncertainty of the London and the Thames Valley projections. By 2101 the preferred projection suggests that the population of the Thames Water region will have grown by 85% within an 80% empirical prediction interval between 45 and 125%

Quantification of Amikacin in Bronchial Epithelial Lining Fluid in Neonates▿

Amikacin efficacy is based on peak concentrations and the possibility of reaching therapeutic levels at the infection site. This study aimed to describe amikacin concentrations in the epithelial lining fluid (ELF) through bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) in newborns. BAL fluid was collected in ventilated neonates treated with intravenous (i.v.) amikacin. Clinical characteristics, amikacin therapeutic drug monitoring serum concentrations, and the concentrations of urea in plasma were extracted from the individual patient files. Amikacin and urea BAL fluid concentrations were determined using liquid chromatography with pulsed electrochemical detection (LC-PED) and capillary electrophoresis with capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (CE-C4D), respectively. ELF amikacin concentrations were converted from BAL fluid concentrations through quantification of dilution (urea in plasma/urea in BAL fluid) during the BAL procedure. Twenty-two observations in 17 neonates (postmenstrual age, 31.9 [range, 25.1 to 41] weeks; postnatal age, 3.5 [range, 2 to 37] days) were collected. Median trough and peak amikacin serum concentrations were 2.1 (range, 1 to 7.1) mg/liter and 39.1 (range, 24.1 to 73.2) mg/liter; the median urea plasma concentration was 30 (8 to 90) mg/dl. The median amikacin concentration in ELF was 6.5 mg/liter, the minimum measured concentration was 1.5 mg/liter, and the maximum (peak) was 23 mg/liter. The highest measured ELF concentration was reached between 6 and 14.5 h after i.v. amikacin administration, and an estimated terminal elimination half-life was 8 to 10 h. The median and highest (peak) ELF amikacin concentrations observed in our study population were, respectively, 6.5 and 23 mg/liter. Despite the frequent use of amikacin in neonatal (pulmonary) infections, this is the first report of amikacin quantification in ELF in newborns

Population forecast accuracy: does the choice of summary measure of error matter?

Population projections are judged primarily by their accuracy. The most commonly used measure for the precision component of accuracy is the mean absolute percent error (MAPE). Recently, the MAPE has been criticized for overstating forecast error and other error measures have been proposed. This study compares the MAPE with two alternative measures of forecast error, the Median APE and an M-estimator. In addition, the paper also investigates forecast bias. The analysis extends previous studies of forecast error by examining a wide range of trend extrapolation techniques using a dataset that spans a century for a large sample of counties in the US. The main objective is to determine whether the choice of summary measure of error makes a difference from a practitioner’s standpoint. The paper finds that the MAPE indeed produces error values that exceed the robust measures. However, except for situations where extreme outliers rendered the MAPE meaningless, and which are rare in real world applications, there was not a single instance where using an alternative summary measure of error would have led to a fundamentally different evaluation of the projections. Moreover, where differences existed, it was not always clear that the values and patterns provided by the robust measures were necessarily more correct than those obtained with the MAPE. While research into refinements and alternatives to the MAPE and mean algebraic percent error are worthwhile, consideration of additional evaluation procedures that go beyond a single criterion might provide more benefits to producers and users of population forecasts. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2007Forecast accuracy, MAPE, Error measures, Population projections,