Modeling of the HIV infection epidemic in the Netherlands: A multi-parameter evidence synthesis approach

Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence and prevalence estimation. MPES is the statistical methodology adopted by the Health Protection Agency in the UK for its annual national assessment of the HIV epidemic, and is acknowledged by the World Health Organization and UNAIDS as a valuable technique for the estimation of adult HIV prevalence from surveillance data. This paper describes the results of utilizing a Bayesian MPES approach to model HIV prevalence in the Netherlands at the end of 2007, using an array of field data from different study designs on various population risk subgroups and with a varying degree of regional coverage. Auxiliary data and expert opinion were additionally incorporated to resolve issues arising from biased, insufficient or inconsistent evidence. This case study offers a demonstration of the ability of MPES to naturally integrate and critically reconcile disparate and heterogeneous sources of evidence, while producing reliable estimates of HIV prevalence used to support public health decision-making.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS488 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Coordinated analysis of age, sex, and education effects on change in MMSE scores

Objectives. We describe and compare the expected performance trajectories of older adults on the Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE) across six independent studies from four countries in the context of a collaborative network of longitudinal studies of aging. A coordinated analysis approach is used to compare patterns of change conditional on sample composition differences related to age, sex, and education. Such coordination accelerates evaluation of particular hypotheses. In particular, we focus on the effect of educational attainment on cognitive decline.Method. Regular and Tobit mixed models were fit to MMSE scores from each study separately. The effects of age, sex, and education were examined based on more than one centering point.Results. Findings were relatively consistent across studies. On average, MMSE scores were lower for older individuals and declined over time. Education predicted MMSE score, but, with two exceptions, was not associated with decline in MMSE over time.Conclusion. A straightforward association between educational attainment and rate of cognitive decline was not supported. Thoughtful consideration is needed when synthesizing evidence across studies, as methodologies adopted and sample characteristics, such as educational attainment, invariably differ. © 2012 The Author

Clonal Population of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Strains Reside within Multiple Lung Cavities

(MTB) are localized within lung cavities of patients suffering from chronic progressive TB.Multiple cavity isolates from lung of 5 patients who had undergone pulmonary resection surgery were analyzed on the basis of their drug susceptibility profile, and genotyped by spoligotyping and 24-loci MIRU-VNTR. The patients past history including treatment was studied. Three of the 5 patients had extensive drug resistant TB. Heteroresistance was also reported within different cavity isolates of the lung. Both genotyping methods reported the presence of clonal population of MTB strain within different cavities of the each patient, even those reporting heteroresistance. Four of the 5 patients were infected with a population of the Beijing genotype. Post-surgery they were prescribed a drug regimen consisting of cycloserine, a fluoroquinolone and an injectable drug. A 6 month post-surgery follow-up reported only 2 patients with positive clinical outcome, showing sputum conversion.Identical spoligotype patterns and MIRU-VNTR profiles between multiple cavities of each patient, characterize the presence of clonal population of MTB strains (and absence of multiple MTB infection)

Drug resistance mutations and heteroresistance detected using the GenoType MTBDRplus assay and their implication for treatment outcomes in patients from Mumbai, India

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Only 5% of the estimated global multidrug resistant TB (MDRTB) load is currently detected. Endemic Mumbai with increasing MDR would benefit from the introduction of molecular methods to detect resistance.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The GenoType MTBDR<it>plus </it>assay was used to determine mutations associated with isoniazid and rifampicin resistance and their correlation with treatment outcomes. It was performed on a convenience sample comprising 88 onset and 67 fifth month isolates for which phenotypic drug susceptibility testing (DST) was determined by the Buddemeyer technique for an earlier study. Simultaneous presence of wild type and mutant bands was referred to as "mixed patterns" (heteroresistance).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Phenotypically 41 isolates were sensitive; 11 isoniazid, 2 rifampicin, 2 pyrazinamide and 5 ethambutol monoresistant; 16 polyresistant and 78 MDR. The agreement between both methods was excellent (kappa = 0.72-0.92). Of 22 rifampicin resistant onset isolates, the predominant <it>rpoB </it>mutations were the singular lack of WT8 (n = 8) and mixed D516V patterns (n = 9). Of the 64 rifampicin resistant fifth month isolates, the most frequent mutations were in WT8 (n = 31) with a further 9 showing the S531L mutation. Mixed patterns were seen in 22 (34%) isolates, most frequently for the D516V mutation (n = 21). Of the 22 onset and 35 fifth month <it>katG </it>mutants, 13 and 12 respectively showed the S315T1 mutation with loss of the WT. Mixed patterns involving both S315T1 and S315T2 were seen in 9 and 23 isolates respectively. Seventeen of 23 and 23/35 <it>inhA </it>mutant onset and fifth month isolates showed mixed A16G profiles. Additionally, 10 fifth month isolates lacked WT2. Five onset and 6 fifth month isolates had both <it>katG </it>and <it>inhA </it>mutations. An association was noted between only <it>katG </it>but not only <it>inhA </it>resistance and poor outcome (<it>p </it>= 0.037); and additional resistance to ethambutol (<it>p </it>= 0.0033). More fifth month than onset isolates had mixed profiles for at least 1 gene (<it>p </it>= 0.000001).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The use of the assay to rapidly diagnose MDR could guide simultaneous first- and second-line DST, and reduce the delay in administering appropriate regimens. Furthermore, detection of heteroresistance could prevent inaccurate "cured" treatment outcomes documented through smear microscopy and permit more sensitive detection of neonascent resistance.</p

Effect of clopidogrel discontinuation at 1 year after drug eluting stent placement on soluble CD40L, P-selectin and C-reactive protein levels: DECADES (Discontinuation Effect of Clopidogrel After Drug Eluting Stent): a multicenter, open-label study

Antiplatelet therapy with clopidogrel has been shown to reduce major adverse cardiac events in acute coronary syndromes and after percutaneous interventions. This effect is not only due to its anti-platelet effect but also possibly due to an anti-inflammatory effect. The effect of clopidogrel cessation after one year of therapy on markers of inflammation has been investigated in diabetics and showed an increase in platelet aggregation as well as hsCRP and surface P-selectin levels. This was an exploratory multicenter prospective open-label single arm study of 98 non-diabetic patients who had received one or more drug eluting stents and were coming to the end of their 12 months course of clopidogrel therapy. The effect of clopidogrel cessation on expression of biomarkers: sCD40L, soluble P-selectin and hsCRP was measured right before clopidogrel cessation (day 0), and subsequently at 1, 2, 3 and 4 weeks after drug withdrawal. A median increase in sCD40L expression from 224 to 324.5 pg/ml was observed between baseline and 4 weeks after clopidogrel cessation, which corresponded to a 39% mean percent change based on an ANCOVA model (P < 0.001). Over the 4 weeks observation period the change in sCD40L expression correlated weakly with soluble P-selectin levels (at 4 weeks Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.32; P = 0.0024). Increase in P-selectin expression from baseline was statistically significant at week 1 and 2. Conversely, hsCRP level decreased by 21% at 1 week (P = 0.008) and was still reduced by 18% by 4 weeks (P = 0.062). The change in sCD40L expression appeared to vary with the type of drug eluting stent. Patients treated with drug eluting stents at 1 year after implantation display significant increase in sCD40L and decrease in hsCRP after clopidogrel cessation. Further studies should elucidate if this increase in sCD40L levels reflects solely the removal of the inhibitory effects of clopidogrel on platelet activity or rather an increase in pro-inflammatory state. The latter hypothesis may be less likely given decrease in hsCRP levels. Randomized studies are urgently needed to establish potential link of clopidogrel discontinuation and vascular outcomes

Performance of the Genotype® MTBDRPlus assay in the diagnosis of tuberculosis and drug resistance in Samara, Russian Federation

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Russia is a high tuberculosis (TB) burden country with a high prevalence of multidrug resistant tuberculosis (MDRTB). Molecular assays for detection of MDRTB on clinical specimens are not widely available in Russia.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We performed an evaluation of the GenoType^®MTBDRplus assay (HAIN Lifescience GmbH, Germany) on a total of 168 sputum specimens from individual patients at a public health laboratory in Central Russia, as a model of a middle income site in a region with high levels of drug resistance. Phenotypic drug resistance tests (DST) were performed on cultures derived from the same sputum specimens using the BACTEC 960 liquid media system.</p> <p>Interpretable GenoType^®MTBDRplus results were obtained for 154(91.7%) specimens with readability rates significantly higher in sputum specimens graded 2+ and 3+ compared to 1+ (RR = 1.17 95%CI 1.04–1.32). The sensitivity and specificity of the assay for the detection of rifampicin (RIF) and isoniazid (INH) resistance and MDR was 96.2%, 97.4%, 97.1% and 90.7%, 83.3%, 88.9% respectively. Mutations in codon 531 of the <it>rpoB </it>gene and codon 315 of the <it>katG </it>gene dominated in RIF and INH resistant strains respectively. Disagreements between phenotypical and molecular tests results (12 samples) could be explained by the presence of rare mutations in strains circulating in Russia and simultaneous presence of resistant and sensitive bacilli in sputum specimens (heteroresistance).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>High sensitivity, short turnaround times and the potential for screening large numbers of specimens rapidly, make the GenoType^®MTBDRplus assay suitable as a first-line screening assay for drug resistant TB.</p

Presentations of children to emergency departments across Europe and the COVID-19 pandemic: A multinational observational study

BACKGROUND: During the initial phase of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, reduced numbers of acutely ill or injured children presented to emergency departments (EDs). Concerns were raised about the potential for delayed and more severe presentations and an increase in diagnoses such as diabetic ketoacidosis and mental health issues. This multinational observational study aimed to study the number of children presenting to EDs across Europe during the early COVID-19 pandemic and factors influencing this and to investigate changes in severity of illness and diagnoses. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Routine health data were extracted retrospectively from electronic patient records of children aged 18 years and under, presenting to 38 EDs in 16 European countries for the period January 2018 to May 2020, using predefined and standardized data domains. Observed and predicted numbers of ED attendances were calculated for the period February 2020 to May 2020. Poisson models and incidence rate ratios (IRRs), using predicted counts for each site as offset to adjust for case-mix differences, were used to compare age groups, diagnoses, and outcomes. Reductions in pediatric ED attendances, hospital admissions, and high triage urgencies were seen in all participating sites. ED attendances were relatively higher in countries with lower SARS-CoV-2 prevalence (IRR 2.26, 95% CI 1.90 to 2.70, p < 0.001) and in children aged <12 months (12 to <24 months IRR 0.86, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.89; 2 to <5 years IRR 0.80, 95% CI 0.78 to 0.82; 5 to <12 years IRR 0.68, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.70; 12 to 18 years IRR 0.72, 95% CI 0.70 to 0.74; versus age <12 months as reference group, p < 0.001). The lowering of pediatric intensive care admissions was not as great as that of general admissions (IRR 1.30, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.45, p < 0.001). Lower triage urgencies were reduced more than higher triage urgencies (urgent triage IRR 1.10, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.12; emergent and very urgent triage IRR 1.53, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.57; versus nonurgent triage category, p < 0.001). Reductions were highest and sustained throughout the study period for children with communicable infectious diseases. The main limitation was the retrospective nature of the study, using routine clinical data from a wide range of European hospitals and health systems. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in ED attendances were seen across Europe during the first COVID-19 lockdown period. More severely ill children continued to attend hospital more frequently compared to those with minor injuries and illnesses, although absolute numbers fell. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN91495258 https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN91495258

Pre-Existing Isoniazid Resistance, but Not the Genotype of Mycobacterium Tuberculosis Drives Rifampicin Resistance Codon Preference in Vitro

Both the probability of a mutation occurring and the ability of the mutant to persist will influence the distribution of mutants that arise in a population. We studied the interaction of these factors for the in vitro selection of rifampicin (RIF)-resistant mutants of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. We characterised two series of spontaneous RIF-resistant in vitro mutants from isoniazid (INH)-sensitive and -resistant laboratory strains and clinical isolates, representing various M. tuberculosis genotypes. The first series were selected from multiple parallel 1 ml cultures and the second from single 10 ml cultures. RIF-resistant mutants were screened by Multiplex Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) or by sequencing the rpoB gene. For all strains the mutation rate for RIF resistance was determined with a fluctuation assay. The most striking observation was a shift towards rpoB-S531L (TCG→TTG) mutations in a panel of laboratory-generated INH-resistant mutants selected from the 10-ml cultures (p<0.001). All tested strains showed similar mutation rates (1.33×10−8 to 2.49×10−7) except one of the laboratory-generated INH mutants with a mutation rate measured at 5.71×10−7, more than 10 times higher than that of the INH susceptible parental strain (5.46–7.44×10−8). No significant, systematic difference in the spectrum of rpoB-mutations between strains of different genotypes was observed. The dramatic shift towards rpoB-S531L in our INH-resistant laboratory mutants suggests that the relative fitness of resistant mutants can dramatically impact the distribution of (subsequent) mutations that accumulate in a M. tuberculosis population, at least in vitro. We conclude that, against specific genetic backgrounds, certain resistance mutations are particularly likely to spread. Molecular screening for these (combinations of) mutations in clinical isolates could rapidly identify these particular pathogenic strains. We therefore recommend that isolates are screened for the distribution of resistance mutations, especially in regions that are highly endemic for (multi)drug resistant tuberculosis