275 research outputs found

    Using the past to constrain the future: how the palaeorecord can improve estimates of global warming

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    Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C, has changed little subsequently, including the latest assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The persistence of such large uncertainties in this simple measure casts doubt on our understanding of the mechanisms of climate change and our ability to predict the response of the climate system to future perturbations. This has motivated continued attempts to constrain the range with climate data, alone or in conjunction with models. The majority of studies use data from the instrumental period (post-1850) but recent work has made use of information about the large climate changes experienced in the geological past. In this review, we first outline approaches that estimate climate sensitivity using instrumental climate observations and then summarise attempts to use the record of climate change on geological timescales. We examine the limitations of these studies and suggest ways in which the power of the palaeoclimate record could be better used to reduce uncertainties in our predictions of climate sensitivity.Comment: The final, definitive version of this paper has been published in Progress in Physical Geography, 31(5), 2007 by SAGE Publications Ltd, All rights reserved. \c{opyright} 2007 Edwards, Crucifix and Harriso

    Positive thyroid transcription factor 1 staining strongly correlates with survival of patients with adenocarcinoma of the lung

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    This study investigated the relation between positive thyroid transcription factor 1 (TTF1) staining and survival of patients affected by primary adenocarcinoma (ADC) of the lung. Pathological tissue from consecutive ADC patients was collected from 2002 to 2004. The anti-TTF1 antibody (8G7G3/1, dilution of 1/200) was used. Thyroid transcription factor 1 staining was assessed for each tumour as positive or negative. Probability of survival was estimated by Kaplan–Meier and difference tested by log-rank test. A Cox's regression multivariate analysis was carried out. In all, 106 patients were studied (66% male, 69% PS0–1, 83% with stage III or IV). Tumours expressed positive TTF1 staining in 66% of cases. Multivariate analysis demonstrated an independent lower risk of death for patients whose tumour expresses positive TTF1 staining (HR=0.51, 95% CI 0.30–0.85; P=0.01) and higher grade of differentiation (HR=0.40, 95% CI 0.24–0.68; P=0.001). In conclusion, positive TTF1 staining strongly and independently correlates with survival of patients with primary ADC of the lung

    Seismic Constraints on the Thickness and Structure of the Martian Crust from InSight

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    NASA¿s InSight mission [1] has for the first time placed a very broad-band seismometer on the surface of Mars. The Seismic Experiment for Interior Structure (SEIS) [2] has been collecting continuous data since early February 2019. The main focus of InSight is to enhance our understanding of the internal structure and dynamics of Mars, which includes the goal to better constrain the crustal thickness of the planet [3]. Knowing the present-day crustal thickness of Mars has important implications for its thermal evolution [4] as well as for the partitioning of silicates and heat-producing elements between the different layers of Mars. Current estimates for the crustal thickness of Mars are based on modeling the relationship between topography and gravity [5,6], but these studies rely on different assumptions, e.g. on the density of the crust and upper mantle, or the bulk silicate composition of the planet and the crust. The resulting values for the average crustal thickness differ by more than 100%, from 30 km to more than 100 km [7]. New independent constraints from InSight will be based on seismically determining the crustal thickness at the landing site. This single firm measurement of crustal thickness at one point on the planet will allow to constrain both the average crustal thickness of Mars as well as thickness variations across the planet when combined with constraints from gravity and topography [8]. Here we describe the determination of the crustal structure and thickness at the InSight landing site based on seismic receiver functions for three marsquakes compared with autocorrelations of InSight data [9].We acknowledge NASA, CNES, partner agencies and institutions (UKSA, SSO,DLR, JPL, IPGP-CNRS, ETHZ, IC, MPS-MPG) and the operators of JPL, SISMOC, MSDS, IRIS-DMC and PDS for providing SEED SEIS data. InSight data is archived in the PDS, and a full list of archives in the Geosciences, Atmospheres, and Imaging nodes is at https://pds-geosciences.wustl.edu/missions/insight/. This work was partially carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. ©2021, California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledge

    The interior of Mars as seen by InSight (Invited)

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    InSight is the first planetary mission dedicated to exploring the whole interior of a planet using geophysical methods, specifically seismology and geodesy. To this end, we observed seismic waves of distant marsquakes and inverted for interior models using differential travel times of phases reflected at the surface (PP, SS...) or the core mantle-boundary (ScS), as well as those converted at crustal interfaces. Compared to previous orbital observations1-3, the seismic data added decisive new insights with consequences for the formation of Mars: The global average crustal thickness of 24-75 km is at the low end of pre-mission estimates5. Together with the the thick lithosphere of 450-600 km5, this requires an enrichment of heat-producing elements in the crust by a factor of 13-20, compared to the primitive mantle. The iron-rich liquid core is 1790-1870 km in radius6, which rules out the existence of an insulating bridgmanite-dominated lower mantle on Mars. The large, and therefore low-density core needs a high amount of light elements. Given the geochemical boundary conditions, Sulfur alone cannot explain the estimated density of ~6 g/cm3 and volatile elements, such as oxygen, carbon or hydrogen are needed in significant amounts. This observation is difficult to reconcile with classical models of late formation from the same material as Earth. We also give an overview of open questions after three years of InSight operation on the surface of Mars, such as the potential existence of an inner core or compositional layers above the CM

    Mortality Risk of Hypnotics: Strengths and Limits of Evidence

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    Sleeping pills, more formally defined as hypnotics, are sedatives used to induce and maintain sleep. In a review of publications for the past 30 years, descriptive epidemiologic studies were identified that examined the mortality risk of hypnotics and related sedative-anxiolytics. Of the 34 studies estimating risk ratios, odds ratios, or hazard ratios, excess mortality associated with hypnotics was significant (p < 0.05) in 24 studies including all 14 of the largest, contrasted with no studies at all suggesting that hypnotics ever prolong life. The studies had many limitations: possibly tending to overestimate risk, such as possible confounding by indication with other risk factors; confusing hypnotics with drugs having other indications; possible genetic confounders; and too much heterogeneity of studies for meta-analyses. There were balancing limitations possibly tending towards underestimates of risk such as limited power, excessive follow-up intervals with possible follow-up mixing of participants taking hypnotics with controls, missing dosage data for most studies, and over-adjustment of confounders. Epidemiologic association in itself is not adequate proof of causality, but there is proof that hypnotics cause death in overdoses; there is thorough understanding of how hypnotics euthanize animals and execute humans; and there is proof that hypnotics cause potentially lethal morbidities such as depression, infection, poor driving, suppressed respiration, and possibly cancer. Combining these proofs with consistent evidence of association, the great weight of evidence is that hypnotics cause huge risks of decreasing a patient's duration of survival
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