Is there a structural break in equilibrium velocity in the euro area?

We investigate the stability of M3 income velocity in the euro area. We apply a set of breakpoint procedures to examine this issue and conclude that at least one structural change occurred around 2000-2001. We also find evidence of another structural break around 1992-1993. These two breaks seem to affect both the level and the slope of the income velocity of M3. We then estimate a model of equilibrium velocity that factors in the opportunity cost of M3, along the lines suggested by Orphanides and Porter (2000). Here again, we find some evidence of instability in equilibrium velocity. Given the importance of the assumption of stable velocity trends for both the derivation of the reference value and the two-pillar strategy of the Eurosystem, these findings question the relevance of some excess liquidity indicators directly computed from the reference value and may call for some adjustments in the conduct of the ECB's monetary policy.M3 velocity ; Breakpoint tests; ECB.

A biologically inspired network design model

A network design problem is to select a subset of links in a transport network that satisfy passengers or cargo transportation demands while minimizing the overall costs of the transportation. We propose a mathematical model of the foraging behaviour of slime mould P. polycephalum to solve the network design problem and construct optimal transport networks. In our algorithm, a traffic flow between any two cities is estimated using a gravity model. The flow is imitated by the model of the slime mould. The algorithm model converges to a steady state, which represents a solution of the problem. We validate our approach on examples of major transport networks in Mexico and China. By comparing networks developed in our approach with the man-made highways, networks developed by the slime mould, and a cellular automata model inspired by slime mould, we demonstrate the flexibility and efficiency of our approach

Factors associated with paradoxical immune response to antiretroviral therapy in HIV infected patients: a case control study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A paradoxical immunologic response (PIR) to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART), defined as viral suppression without CD4 cell-count improvement, has been reported in the literature as 8 to 42%, around 15% in most instances. The present study aims to determine, in a cohort of HIV infected patients in Brazil, what factors were independently associated with such a discordant response to HAART.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A case-control study (1:4) matched by gender was conducted among 934 HIV infected patients on HAART in Brazil. Cases: patients with PIR, defined as CD4 < 350 cells/mm³(hazard ratio for AIDS or death of at least 8.5) and undetectable HIV viral load on HAART for at least one year. Controls: similar to cases, but with CD4 counts ≥ 350 cells/mm³. Eligibility criteria were applied. Data were collected from medical records using a standardized form. Variables were introduced in a hierarchical logistic regression model if a p-value < 0.1 was determined in a bivariate analysis.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Among 934 patients, 39 cases and 160 controls were consecutively selected. Factors associated with PIR in the logistic regression model were: total time in use of HAART (OR 0.981; CI 95%: 0.96-0.99), nadir CD4-count (OR 0.985; CI 95%: 0.97-0.99), and time of undetectable HIV viral load (OR 0.969; CI 95%: 0.94-0.99).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>PIR seems to be related to a delay in the management of immunodeficient patients, as shown by its negative association with nadir CD4-count. Strategies should be implemented to avoid such a delay and improve the adherence to HAART as a way to implement concordant responses.</p

Chikungunya Virus Infection

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an alphavirus transmitted by mosquitoes, mostly Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. After half a century of focal outbreaks of acute febrile polyarthralgia in Africa and Asia, the disease unexpectedly spread in the past decade with large outbreaks in Africa and around the Indian Ocean and rare autochthonous transmission in temperate areas. This emergence brought new insights on its pathogenesis, notably the role of the A226V mutation that improved CHIKV fitness in Ae. albopictus and the possible CHIKV persistence in deep tissue sanctuaries for months after infection. Massive outbreaks also revealed new aspects of the acute stage: the high number of symptomatic cases, unexpected complications, mother-to-child transmission, and low lethality in debilitated patients. The follow-up of patients in epidemic areas has identified frequent, long-lasting, rheumatic disorders, including rare inflammatory joint destruction, and common chronic mood changes associated with quality-of-life impairment. Thus, the globalization of CHIKV exposes countries with Aedes mosquitoes both to brutal outbreaks of acute incapacitating episodes and endemic long-lasting disorders

Persisting Mixed Cryoglobulinemia in Chikungunya Infection

Chikungunya virus is present in tropical Africa and Asia and is transmitted by mosquito bites. The disease is characterized by fever, headache, severe joint pain and transient skin rash for about a week. Most patients experience persisting joint pain and/or stiffness for months to years. In routine practice, diagnosis is based upon serology. Since 2004 there has been an ongoing giant outbreak of Chikungunya fever in East Africa, the Indian Ocean Islands, India and East Asia. In parallel, more than 1,000 travelers were diagnosed with imported Chikungunya infection in most developed countries. Considering the clinical features of our patients (joint pain), we hypothesized that cryoglobulins could be involved in the pathophysiology of the disease as observed in chronic hepatitis C infection. Cryoglobulins, which are immunoglobulins that precipitate when temperature is below 37°C, can induce rheumatic and vascular disorders. From April 2005 through May 2007, we screened all patients with possible imported Chikungunya infection for cryoglobulins. They were present in over 90% of patients, and possibly responsible for the unexpected false negativity of serological assays. Cryoglobulin frequency and levels decreased with time in recovering patients

Measuring the burden of arboviral diseases: the spectrum of morbidity and mortality from four prevalent infections

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Globally, arthropod-borne virus infections are increasingly common causes of severe febrile disease that can progress to long-term physical or cognitive impairment or result in early death. Because of the large populations at risk, it has been suggested that these outcomes represent a substantial health deficit not captured by current global disease burden assessments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We reviewed newly available data on disease incidence and outcomes to critically evaluate the disease burden (as measured by disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs) caused by yellow fever virus (YFV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). We searched available literature and official reports on these viruses combined with the terms "outbreak(s)," "complication(s)," "disability," "quality of life," "DALY," and "QALY," focusing on reports since 2000. We screened 210 published studies, with 38 selected for inclusion. Data on average incidence, duration, age at onset, mortality, and severity of acute and chronic outcomes were used to create DALY estimates for 2005, using the approach of the current Global Burden of Disease framework.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Given the limitations of available data, nondiscounted, unweighted DALYs attributable to YFV, JEV, CHIKV, and RVFV were estimated to fall between 300,000 and 5,000,000 for 2005. YFV was the most prevalent infection of the four viruses evaluated, although a higher proportion of the world's population lives in countries at risk for CHIKV and JEV. Early mortality and long-term, related chronic conditions provided the largest DALY components for each disease. The better known, short-term viral febrile syndromes caused by these viruses contributed relatively lower proportions of the overall DALY scores.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Limitations in health systems in endemic areas undoubtedly lead to underestimation of arbovirus incidence and related complications. However, improving diagnostics and better understanding of the late secondary results of infection now give a first approximation of the current disease burden from these widespread serious infections. Arbovirus control and prevention remains a high priority, both because of the current disease burden and the significant threat of the re-emergence of these viruses among much larger groups of susceptible populations.</p