Bayesian astrostatistics: a backward look to the future

This perspective chapter briefly surveys: (1) past growth in the use of Bayesian methods in astrophysics; (2) current misconceptions about both frequentist and Bayesian statistical inference that hinder wider adoption of Bayesian methods by astronomers; and (3) multilevel (hierarchical) Bayesian modeling as a major future direction for research in Bayesian astrostatistics, exemplified in part by presentations at the first ISI invited session on astrostatistics, commemorated in this volume. It closes with an intentionally provocative recommendation for astronomical survey data reporting, motivated by the multilevel Bayesian perspective on modeling cosmic populations: that astronomers cease producing catalogs of estimated fluxes and other source properties from surveys. Instead, summaries of likelihood functions (or marginal likelihood functions) for source properties should be reported (not posterior probability density functions), including nontrivial summaries (not simply upper limits) for candidate objects that do not pass traditional detection thresholds.Comment: 27 pp, 4 figures. A lightly revised version of a chapter in "Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy" (Joseph M. Hilbe, ed., Springer, New York, forthcoming in 2012), the inaugural volume for the Springer Series in Astrostatistics. Version 2 has minor clarifications and an additional referenc

Observation of Entanglement-Dependent Two-Particle Holonomic Phase

Holonomic phases---geometric and topological---have long been an intriguing aspect of physics. They are ubiquitous, ranging from observations in particle physics to applications in fault tolerant quantum computing. However, their exploration in particles sharing genuine quantum correlations lack in observations. Here we experimentally demonstrate the holonomic phase of two entangled-photons evolving locally, which nevertheless gives rise to an entanglement-dependent phase. We observe its transition from geometric to topological as the entanglement between the particles is tuned from zero to maximal, and find this phase to behave more resilient to evolution changes with increasing entanglement. Furthermore, we theoretically show that holonomic phases can directly quantify the amount of quantum correlations between the two particles. Our results open up a new avenue for observations of holonomic phenomena in multi-particle entangled quantum systems.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

A Bayesian Periodogram Finds Evidence for Three Planets in 47 Ursae Majoris

A Bayesian analysis of 47 Ursae Majoris (47 UMa) radial velocity data confirms and refines the properties of two previously reported planets with periods of 1079 and 2325 days and finds evidence for an additional long period planet with a period of approximately 10000 days. The three planet model is found to be 10^5 times more probable than the next most probable model which is a two planet model. The nonlinear model fitting is accomplished with a new hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (HMCMC) algorithm which incorporates parallel tempering, simulated annealing and genetic crossover operations. Each of these features facilitate the detection of a global minimum in chi-squared. By combining all three, the HMCMC greatly increases the probability of realizing this goal. When applied to the Kepler problem it acts as a powerful multi-planet Kepler periodogram. The measured periods are 1078 \pm 2, 2391{+100}{-87}, and 14002{+4018}{-5095}d, and the corresponding eccentricities are 0.032 \pm 0.014, 0.098{+.047}{-.096}, and 0.16{+.09}{-.16}. The results favor low eccentricity orbits for all three. Assuming the three signals (each one consistent with a Keplerian orbit) are caused by planets, the corresponding limits on planetary mass (M sin i) and semi-major axis are (2.53{+.07}{-.06}MJ, 2.10\pm0.02au), (0.54\pm0.07MJ, 3.6\pm0.1au), and (1.6{+0.3}{-0.5}MJ, 11.6{+2.1}{-2.9}au), respectively. We have also characterized a noise induced eccentricity bias and designed a correction filter that can be used as an alternate prior for eccentricity, to enhance the detection of planetary orbits of low or moderate eccentricity

Bayesian Analysis of the (Generalized) Chaplygin Gas and Cosmological Constant Models using the 157 gold SNe Ia Data

The generalized Chaplygin gas model (GCGM) contains 5 free parameters, here, they are constrained through the type Ia supernovae data, i.e., the ``gold sample'' of 157 supernovae data. Negative and large positive values for $\alpha$ are taken into account. The analysis is made by employing the Bayesian statistics and the prediction for each parameter is obtained by marginalizing on the remained ones. This procedure leads to the following predictions: $\alpha = - 0.75^{+4.04}_{-0.24}$, $H_0=65.00^{+1.77}_{-1.75}$, $\Omega_{k0} = - 0.77^{+1.14}_{-5.94}$, $\Omega_{m0} = 0.00^{+1.95}_{-0.00}$, $\Omega_{c0} = 1.36^{+5.36}_{-0.85}$, $\bar A = 1.000^{+0.000}_{-0.534}$. Through the same analysis the specific case of the ordinary Chaplygin gas model (CGM), for which $\alpha = 1$, is studied. In this case, there are now four free parameters and the predictions for them are: $H_0 = 65.01^{+1.81}_{-1.71}$, $\Omega_{k0} = - 2.73^{+1.53}_{-0.97}$, $\Omega_{m0} = 0.00^{+1.22}_{-0.00}$, $\Omega_{c0} = 1.34^{+0.94}_{-0.70}$, $\bar A = 1.000^{+0.000}_{-0.270}$. To complete the analysis the $\Lambda$CDM, with its three free parameters, is considered. For all these models, particular cases are considered where one or two parameters are fixed. The age of the Universe, the deceleration parameter and the moment the Universe begins to accelerate are also evaluated. The quartessence scenario, is favoured. A closed (and in some cases a flat) and accelerating Universe is also preferred. The CGM case $\alpha = 1$ is far from been ruled out, and it is even preferred in some particular cases. In most of the cases the $\Lambda$CDM is disfavoured with respect to GCGM and CGM.Comment: 23 pages, LaTeX 2e, 6 tables, 38 EPS figures, uses graphic

Likelihood Analysis of Repeating in the BATSE Catalogue

I describe a new likelihood technique, based on counts-in-cells statistics, that I use to analyze repeating in the BATSE 1B and 2B catalogues. Using the 1B data, I find that repeating is preferred over non-repeating by 4.3:1 odds, with a well-defined peak at 5-6 repetitions per source. I find that the post-1B data are consistent with the repeating model inferred from the 1B data, after taking into account the lower fraction of bursts with well-determined positions. Combining the two data sets, I find that the odds favoring repeating over non-repeating are almost unaffected at 4:1, with a narrower peak at 5 repetitions per source. I conclude that the data sets are consistent both with each other and with repeating, and that for these data sets the odds favor repeating.Comment: 5 pages including 3 encapsulated figures, as a uuencoded, gzipped, Postscript file. To appear in Proc. of the 1995 La Jolla workshop ``High Velocity Neutron Stars and Gamma-Ray Bursts'' eds. Rothschild, R. et al., AIP, New Yor

Measuring Entanglement in a Photonic Embedding Quantum Simulator

Measuring entanglement is a demanding task that usually requires full tomography of a quantum system, involving a number of observables that grows exponentially with the number of parties. Recently, it was suggested that adding a single ancillary qubit would allow for the efficient measurement of concurrence, and indeed any entanglement monotone associated to antilinear operations. Here, we report on the experimental implementation of such a device---an embedding quantum simulator---in photonics, encoding the entangling dynamics of a bipartite system into a tripartite one. We show that bipartite concurrence can be efficiently extracted from the measurement of merely two observables, instead of fifteen, without full tomographic information.Comment: Updated versio

Sex differences in comorbidity between substance use and mental health in adolescents: Two sides of the same coin

Background: This study aims to evaluate sex differences in alcohol and cannabis use and mental health disorders (MHD) in adolescents, and to evaluate the predictive role of mental health disorders for alcohol and cannabis use disorders (AUD and CUD respectively). Method: A sample of 863 adolescents from the general population (53.7% girls, Mage = 16.62, SD = 0.85) completed a computerized battery including questions on substance use frequency, the Brief Symptom Inventory, the Cannabis Problems Questionnaire for Adolescents - Short version, the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index and the DSM-IV-TR criteria for AUD and CUD. Bivariate analyses and binary logistic regressions were performed. Results: Girls presented significantly more mental health problems and a higher prevalence of comorbidity between SUD and MHD. Obsessivecompulsive symptoms and phobic anxiety indicated a higher risk of AUD, whereas depression and interaction between hostility and obsessivecompulsive disorder indicated a higher risk of CUD. Conclusions: Comorbidity between SUD and MHD is high among adolescents, and significantly higher among girls. Antecedentes: el objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar las diferencias de sexo en el uso de cannabis y alcohol y en trastornos de salud mental TSM en adolescentes, y el rol predictivo de los TSM sobre los trastornos por uso de alcohol y cannabis (TUA y TUC, respectivamente). Método: una muestra de 863 adolescentes de la población general (53, 7% chicas, edad media = 16.62, DT = 0, 85) completaron una batería informatizada sobre la frecuencia de uso de sustancias, el Inventario Breve de Síntomas, el Cuestionario de Problemas por Consumo de Cannabis - versión breve, el Índice de Rutgers de Problemas con el Alcohol y los criterios DSM-IV-TR para el TUA y TUC. Se realizaron análisis bivariados y de regresión logística binaria. Resultados: las chicas presentaron significativamente más problemas de salud mental y mayor prevalencia de comorbilidad entre TUS y TSM. El trastorno obsesivo-compulsivo (TOC) y la ansiedad fóbica indicaron un mayor riesgo de TUA, mientras que la depresión y la interacción entre hostilidad y TOC indicaron mayor riesgo de TUC. Conclusiones: la comorbilidad entre TUS y TSM es alta entre los adolescentes, y significativamente mayor entre las chicas