Taxation

This Briefing Note examines the evolution of the tax burden over the last 50 years. It then looks at the proposals in the parties' manifestos. * Net taxes and National Insurance contributions have risen from 34.8% of national income in 1996ֹ7 to 36.3% in 2004ְ5. According to Treasury projections, these will rise to 38.5% of national income in 2008ְ9. This would be the highest level since 1984ָ5. * Total government revenues have averaged 38.4% of national income under the two Labour governments, compared with 40.6% over the 18 years of Conservative government from 1979 to 1997. According to Treasury forecasts, revenues will equal 39.3% of national income in 2005ְ6, rising to 40.6% by 2009ֱ0. This would be the highest level since 1988ָ9. * Over Labourҳ two parliaments since 1997, current receipts have risen by 3.5% a year on average, in real terms, while national income rose by 2.8% on average, leaving national income minus tax to rise at 2.4% on average. * Of the total ò8.5 billion revenue increase seen since 1996ֹ7, ñ9.1 billion was due to discretionary changes to the tax system, with the remainder being due to the impact of the economy on overall revenues. The largest discretionary change occurred in the first Budget after the 2001 election (the Spring 2002 Budget), which increased taxes to yield an additional ù.9 billion by 2005ְ6. * Between 1997 and 2005, the UK saw one of the highest increases in revenues among OECD countries, although the UK remains a low-tax economy compared with EU countries

Updating the UK’s code for fiscal stability

The 1998 Code for Fiscal Stability sets out the framework within which UK fiscal policy is now set. While having such a code does not make it easier for a Government to meet its fiscal objectives, it may improve the economic credibility of the policy process. To date the Code has generally worked well, and in any case many of the Treasury’s practices exceed the minimum requirements of the Code. However, improvements could be made in the light of recent experiences. In particular it would be preferable for less emphasis to be placed on the precise forecasts for fiscal aggregates and greater emphasis to be placed on the magnitude of the risks to those forecasts. Using the projections contained in the March 2004 Budget, and information on the size of errors made in the past, we estimate that there is now a 60% chance that the Chancellor’s “golden rule” will be met without further tax increases or spending cuts. This compares to 74% for the forecast made by the Treasury 12 months earlier. As well as clarifying how cautious forecasts are, the uncertainty surrounding projections for fiscal aggregates also has implications for the way in which progress towards any fiscal rules should be interpreted

An examination of the IFS corporation tax forecasting record

This paper examines the corporation tax forecasting techniques used by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. For current year forecasts a judgemental forecast is found to have performed better than relying solely on a simple model or information on the receipts available so far in the current financial year. For longer time horizons the judgemental forecast has performed slightly less well than the modelled forecast. While forecasts made later in the financial year have led to more accurate estimates of receipts in the current year no evidence is found that this has improved the accuracy of longer run forecasts. In the short term inaccuracies in the modelling process are found to be more important than errors in forecasting growth in corporate profits. However the latter is still an important component of errors and one that grows substantially in relative importance as the forecast horizon increases

An economic evaluation of the early impact of Aimhigher: excellence challenge on pre-16 outcomes: update to previous analysis

The Aimhigher: Excellence Challenge intervention seeks to encourage more young people to articipate in tertiary education. This paper updates previous estimates of the impact of the programme on the GCSE marks and reported expected school leaving ages, among year 11 pupils. Information from 3 different cohorts is used (whereas the previous analysis had data on the first 2 cohorts). In some schools the second and third cohorts have been exposed to the policy, whereas in others only the third cohort was exposed to the policy. This distinction is used to model the impact of the policy using linear regression analysis. However the lack of a comparison group in Spring 2004 means that the impact of the policy can only be estimated under relatively strong assumptions about the evolution of the impact of the policy across time. Under the assumption that the policy had the same impact in the original treatment (EiC Phase 1 & 2 areas) in Spring 2004 as in Spring 2003, we find evidence that being part of the Aimhigher: Excellence Challenge programme in the new areas (EiC Phase 3) has led to a 5.2 percentage point increase in the year 11 pupils expecting to leave education at age 20 or over. Although slightly larger, this estimate is not statistically significantly different from the increase of 3.7 percentage points found in the original (EiC Phase 1 & 2) areas. Across both types of area (EiC Phase 1& 2 and EiC Phase 3) we estimate that the average impact of the policy is to increase the percentage of year 11 pupils reporting that they will leave education at age 20 or above by 4.6 percentage points. We also find some evidence of a similar positive impact on GCSE English results, although the impact across other GCSEs is less clear. While the assumptions made in producing these new estimates are relatively strong it is clear that the analysis of the new data does not contradict the previous estimates (which were reliant on less strong assumptions)

Early quantitative evidence on the impact of the pathways to work pilots

Since October 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has been piloting reforms in England, Scotland and Wales which provide greater support alongside greater obligations to encourage many new claimants of incapacity benefits to move into paid work. The Pathways to Work package of reforms includes: a series of usually mandatory workfocused interviews; programmes designed to boost claimants' prospects of being able to work; and increased financial incentives for individuals to enter paid employment. As part of a quantitative assessment of the impact of the programme, a telephone survey of those making an initial enquiry to Jobcentre Plus about claiming incapacity benefits was conducted in both pilot and comparison areas before and after the pilots were implemented. This report focuses on the differences in some early quantitative outcomes between Pathways and non-Pathways areas. Two empirical techniques are used to investigate the early impact of the pilots on employment, earnings, receipt of incapacity benefits, and a potential indicator of the extent to which individuals' health affects their everyday activities. The analysis was undertaken by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the telephone interviews were undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. All these findings are preliminary: more comprehensive analysis will be conducted in later stages of the evaluation. This report analyses outcomes at a time shortly after the pilots started. Further analysis of outcomes will assess Pathways to Work using survey and administrative data from a later cohort and will examine outcomes over a longer period of time

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of Farm Size and Performance

Replaced with revised version of poster 08/03/10.Farm size, farm performance, SEM models, Agricultural Finance, Farm Management,

Early quantitative evidence on the impact of the Pathways to Work pilots

Since October 2003 the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has been piloting reforms in England, Scotland and Wales which provide greater support alongside greater obligations to encourage many new claimants of incapacity benefits to move into paid work. The Pathways to Work package of reforms includes: a series of usually mandatory workfocused interviews; programmes designed to boost claimants' prospects of being able to work; and increased financial incentives for individuals to enter paid employment. As part of a quantitative assessment of the impact of the programme, a telephone survey of those making an initial enquiry to Jobcentre Plus about claiming incapacity benefits was conducted in both pilot and comparison areas before and after the pilots were implemented. This report focuses on the differences in some early quantitative outcomes between Pathways and non-Pathways areas. Two empirical techniques are used to investigate the early impact of the pilots on employment, earnings, receipt of incapacity benefits, and a potential indicator of the extent to which individuals' health affects their everyday activities. The analysis was undertaken by researchers at the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the telephone interviews were undertaken by the National Centre for Social Research. All these findings are preliminary: more comprehensive analysis will be conducted in later stages of the evaluation. This report analyses outcomes at a time shortly after the pilots started. Further analysis of outcomes will assess Pathways to Work using survey and administrative data from a later cohort and will examine outcomes over a longer period of time

Growing Out of Poverty: Does Urban Agriculture Contribute to Household Food Security in Southern African Cities?

Abstract The literature on urban agriculture (UA) as a food security and poverty alleviation strategy is bifurcating into two distinct positions. The first is that UA is a viable and effective pro-poor development strategy, and the second is that UA has demonstrated limited positive outcomes on either food security or poverty. These two positions are tested against data generated by the African Urban Food Security Network's (AFSUN) baseline food security survey undertaken in 11 Southern African cities. At the aggregate level, the analysis shows that (1) urban context is an important predictor of rates of household engagement in UA-the economic, political, and historical circumstances and conditions of a city are key factors that either promote or hinder UA activity and scale; (2) UA is not an effective household food security strategy for poor urban households-the analysis found few significant relationships between UA participation and food security; and (3) household levels of earnings and land holdings may mediate UA impacts on food security-wealthier households derive greater net food security benefits from UA than poor households do. These findings call into question the potential benefits of UA as a broad urban development strategy and lend support to the position that UA has limited poverty alleviation benefits under current modes of practice and regulation

Chemical modeling for pH prediction of acidified musts with gypsum and tartaric acid in warm regions

Winemaking of musts acidified with up to 3 g/L of gypsum (CaSO4 2H2O) and tartaric acid, both individually and in combination, as well as a chemical modeling have been carried out to study the behaviour of these compounds as acidifiers. Prior to fermentation gypsum and tartaric acid reduce the pH by 0.12 and 0.17 pH units/g/L, respectively, but while gypsum does not increase the total acidity and reduces buffering power, tartaric acid shows the opposite behaviour. When these compounds were used in combination, the doses of tartaric acid necessary to reach a suitable pH were reduced. Calcium concentrations increase considerably in gypsum-acidified must, although they fell markedly after fermentation over time. Sulfate concentrations also increased, although with doses of 2 g/L they were lower than the maximum permitted level (2.5 g/L). Chemical modeling gave good results and the errors in pH predictions were less than 5% in almost all case

Addiction stigma and the biopolitics of liberal modernity: A qualitative analysis

Definitions of addiction have never been more hotly contested. The advance of neuroscientific accounts has not only placed into public awareness a highly controversial explanatory approach, it has also shed new light on the absence of agreement among the many experts who contest it. Proponents argue that calling addiction a 'brain disease' is important because it is destigmatising. Many critics of the neuroscientific approach also agree on this point. Considered from the point of view of the sociology of health and illness, the idea that labelling something a disease will alleviate stigma is a surprising one. Disease, as demonstrated in that field of research, is routinely stigmatised. In this article we take up the issue of stigma as it plays out in relation to addiction, seeking to clarify and challenge the claims made about the progress associated with disease models. To do so, we draw on Erving Goffman's classic work on stigma, reconsidering it in light of more recent, process oriented, theoretical resources, and posing stigmatisation as a performative biopolitical process. Analysing recently collected interviews conducted with 60 people in Australia who consider themselves to have an alcohol or other drug addiction, dependence or habit, we explore their accounts of stigma, finding experiences of stigma to be common, multiple and strikingly diverse. We argue that by treating stigma as politically productive - as a contingent biopolitically performative process rather than as a stable marker of some kind of anterior difference - we can better understand what it achieves. This allows us to consider not simply how the 'disease' of addiction can be destigmatised, or even whether the 'diseasing' of addiction is itself stigmatising (although this would seem a key question), but whether the very problematisation of 'addiction' in the first place constitutes a stigma process