High frequency statistical arbitrage via the optimal thermal causal path

We consider the problem of identifying similarities and causality relationships in a given set of financial time series data streams. We develop further the “Optimal Thermal Causal Path” method, which is a non-parametric method proposed by Sornette et al. The method considers the mismatch between a given pair of time series in order to identify the expected minimum energy path lead-lag structure between the pair. Traders may find this a useful tool for directional trading, to spot arbitrage opportunities. We add a curvature energy term to the method and we propose an approximation technique to reduce the computational time. We apply the method and approximation technique on various market sectors of NYSE data and extract the highly correlated pairs of time series. We show how traders could exploit arbitrage opportunities by using the method

Preface

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Elastic Partial Matching of Time Series

We consider a problem of elastic matching of time series. We propose an algorithm that automatically determines a subsequence b of a target time series b that best matches a query series a. In the proposed algorithm we map the problem of the best matching subsequence to the problem of a cheapest path in a DAG (directed acyclic graph). Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed algorithm outperforms the commonly used Dynamic Time Warping in retrieval accuracy

The VLDB Journal DOI 10.1007/s00778-006-0040-z REGULAR PAPER Scaling and time warping in time series querying

Abstract The last few years have seen an increasing understanding that dynamic time warping (DTW), a technique that allows local flexibility in aligning time series, is superior to the ubiquitous Euclidean distance for time series classification, clustering, and indexing. More recently, it has been shown that for some problems, uniform scaling (US), a technique that allows global scaling of time series, may just be as important for some problems. In this work, we note that for many real world problems, it is necessary to combine both DTW and US to achieve meaningful results. This is particularly true in domains where we must account for the natural variability of human actions, including biometrics, query by humming, motion-capture/animation, and handwriting recognition. We introduce the first technique which can handle both DTW and US simultaneously, our techniques involve search pruning by means of a lower bounding technique and multi-dimensiona

Data Min Knowl Disc DOI 10.1007/s10618-006-0049-3 Compression-based data mining of sequential data

Abstract The vast majority of data mining algorithms require the setting of many input parameters. The dangers of working with parameter-laden algorithms are twofold. First, incorrect settings may cause an algorithm to fail in finding the true patterns. Second, a perhaps more insidious problem is that the algorithm may report spurious patterns that do not really exist, or greatly overestimate the significance of the reported patterns. This is especially likely when the user fails to understand the role of parameters in the data mining Responsible editor: Johannes Gehrke

Partial Elastic Matching of Time Series

We consider the problem of elastic matching of time series. We propose an algorithm that determines a subsequence of a target time series that best matches a query series. In the proposed algorithm we map the problem of the best matching subsequence to the problem of a cheapest path in a DAG (directed acyclic graph). The proposed approach allows us to also compute the optimal scale and translation of time series values, which is a nontrivial problem in the case of subsequence matching