Range-wide sources of variation in reproductive rates of northern spotted owls

We conducted a range-wide investigation of the dynamics of site-level reproductive rate of northern spotted owls using survey data from 11 study areas across the subspecies geographic range collected during 1993–2018. Our analytical approach accounted for imperfect detection of owl pairs and misclassification of successful reproduction (i.e., at least one young fledged) and contributed further insights into northern spotted owl population ecology and dynamics. Both nondetection and state misclassification were important, especially because factors affecting these sources of error also affected focal ecological parameters. Annual probabilities of site occupancy were greatest at sites with successful reproduction in the previous year and lowest for sites not occupied by a pair in the previous year. Site-specific occupancy transition probabilities declined over time and were negatively affected by barred owl presence. Overall, the site-specific probability of successful reproduction showed substantial year-to-year fluctuations and was similar for occupied sites that did or did not experience successful reproduction the previous year. Site-specific probabilities for successful reproduction were very small for sites that were unoccupied the previous year. Barred owl presence negatively affected the probability of successful reproduction by northern spotted owls in Washington and California, as predicted, but the effect in Oregon was mixed. The proportions of sites occupied by northern spotted owl pairs showed steep, near-monotonic declines over the study period, with all study areas showing the lowest observed levels of occupancy to date. If trends continue it is likely that northern spotted owls will become extirpated throughout large portions of their range in the coming decades

Range-wide declines of northern spotted owl populations in the Pacific Northwest: A meta-analysis

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) inhabits older coniferous forests in the Pacific Northwest and has been at the center of forest management issues in this region. The immediate threats to this federally listed species include habitat loss and competition with barred owls (Strix varia), which invaded from eastern North America. We conducted a prospective meta-analysis to assess population trends and factors affecting those trends in northern spotted owls using 26 years of survey and capture-recapture data from 11 study areas across the owls\u27 geographic range to analyze demographic traits, rates of population change, and occupancy parameters for spotted owl territories. We found that northern spotted owl populations experienced significant declines of 6–9% annually on 6 study areas and 2–5% annually on 5 other study areas. Annual declines translated to ≤35% of the populations remaining on 7 study areas since 1995. Barred owl presence on spotted owl territories was the primary factor negatively affecting apparent survival, recruitment, and ultimately, rates of population change. Analysis of spotted and barred owl detections in an occupancy framework corroborated the capture-recapture analyses with barred owl presence increasing territorial extinction and decreasing territorial colonization of spotted owls. While landscape habitat components reduced the effect of barred owls on these rates of decline, they did not reverse the negative trend. Our analyses indicated that northern spotted owl populations potentially face extirpation if the negative effects of barred owls are not ameliorated while maintaining northern spotted owl habitat across their range

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis.The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan

Estimating Northern Spotted Owl (\u3ci\u3eStrix occidentalis caurina\u3c/i\u3e) Pair Detection Probabilities Based on Call-Back Surveys Associated with Long-Term Mark-Recapture Studies, 1993–2018

The northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina; hereinafter NSO) was listed as “threatened” under the Endangered Species Act in 1990 and population declines have continued since that listing. Given the species’ protected status, any proposed activities on Federal lands that might impact NSO require consultation with U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and part of that consultation often includes surveys to determine presence and occupancy status of the species in the proposed activity area. The objective of this report is to present study-area specific estimates of the probability of detection for NSO pairs from twelve 2-week seasonal survey periods using data from a recent range-wide meta-analysis. These estimates were a by-product of pair occupancy modeling but might provide insight into potential changes in the effect of the invasive barred owl on NSO detection rates. We used two-species multi-season occupancy models to estimate the probability of detection for NSOs on each of 11 study areas for each 2-week survey period and relative to the range-wide effect of barred owl presence or absence. Detection probabilities within the season generally increased from the earliest surveys in March through mid-season, decreasing again in the late season on five study areas. For three other study areas, detection rates were highest during the earliest survey periods in late March or early April. Estimates of cumulative seasonal detection of NSO (across a maximum of six within-season surveys) were less than 0.90 when barred owls (BO) were present on all but one study area, regardless of when surveys were conducted within a season. However, despite low detection rates, the probability that a territory was occupied when an NSO pair was not detected over six within-season surveys was also very low. When BO are not present on a territory, a six-survey protocol had a high probability of detecting an NSO pair at least once during the season on all study areas, except for the very lowest per-survey estimates. Conducting most surveys earlier in the season, when the probability of detecting pairs is highest (through May on most areas) could improve seasonal detection rates. However, alternative methods of population monitoring—such as the use of passive acoustic recorders—may be needed to continue monitoring NSO for research and management

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates (version 2)

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis. The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates

Northern spotted owl reproductive rates (version 3)

These datasets were used in the prospective meta-analysis of northern spotted owl reproductive rates over 25 years across 11 study areas located throughout the range of the owl. A multi-state occupancy file was created by collapsing site-specific information on owl reproductive status into bimonthly (2 per month) survey occasions. These data were then analyzed to estimate annual reproductive rates, defined as: number of owls successfully reproducing/number of owl pairs, while accounting for variation in survey effort by accounting for imperfect detection of owls and potential misclassification of reproductive status. Covariates describing the probability of barred owl presence, habitat conditions, and climate were also included to explain variation in reproductive rates. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Data included here were analyzed and interpreted in the following manuscript in review: Rockweit, J. T. et al. 2021. Sources of Variation in Reproductive Rates of Northern Spotted Owls Across Their Range: A Prospective Meta-Analysis. The datasets associated with this readme file include all relevant script files needed for the multi-state occupancy analysis of northern spotted owl reproduction. For specific file information see the readme files in this record. These data were collected as part of the long-term demographic monitoring of northern spotted owls in association with the Effectiveness Monitoring Plan of the Northwest Forest Plan. Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates.Version 2 has the same information as version 1, plus a table of ranked model results that includes all models tested and compared analyzing range-wide sources of variation in northern spotted owl reproductive rates.Version 3 has the same information as version 3, with the following changes: (1) Updated full list of models .csv to reflect updated analysis. (2) Updated the data files (.pao and seascov.csv) for the COA study area – all other study areas have not changed

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccinationResearch in context

Summary: Background: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. Methods: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7–15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. Findings: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05–0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01–0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. Interpretation: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. Funding: National Institutes of Health

Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccinationResearch in context

Background: While vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection. Methods: In this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7–15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures. Findings: Previous infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05–0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01–0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease. Interpretation: Previous infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection. Funding: National Institutes of Health