Asymmetric and time-varying error-correction: an application to labour demand in the UK

In this paper we compare the asymmetric and time-varying error-correction models that have recently been proposed, and apply these to the case of UK aggregate labour demand. The aim of the paper is to investigate the possible co-existence of time-varying adjustment on the one hand, and constant asymmetric error-correction on the other hand. We find that without allowing for time-varying adjustment variables, the asymmetric error-correction models of Granger and Lee (1989) and Escribano (1986) work well. But once the time-varying adjustment variables are included, the evidence for time-invariant asymmetric adjustment is marginal

More reliable inference for the dissimilarity index of segregation

ACL-2International audienceThe most widely used measure of segregation is the so‐called dissimilarity index. It is now well understood that this measure also reflects randomness in the allocation of individuals to units (i.e. it measures deviations from evenness, not deviations from randomness). This leads to potentially large values of the segregation index when unit sizes and/or minority proportions are small, even if there is no underlying systematic segregation. Our response to this is to produce adjustments to the index, based on an underlying statistical model. We specify the assignment problem in a very general way, with differences in conditional assignment probabilities underlying the resulting segregation. From this, we derive a likelihood ratio test for the presence of any systematic segregation, and bias adjustments to the dissimilarity index. We further develop the asymptotic distribution theory for testing hypotheses concerning the magnitude of the segregation index and show that the use of bootstrap methods can improve the size and power properties of test procedures considerably. We illustrate these methods by comparing dissimilarity indices across school districts in England to measure social segregation

Axionic D3-D7 Inflation

We study the motion of a D3 brane moving within a Type IIB string vacuum compactified to 4D on K3 x T_2/Z_2 in the presence of D7 and O7 planes. We work within the effective 4D supergravity describing how the mobile D3 interacts with the lightest bulk moduli of the compactification, including the effects of modulus-stabilizing fluxes. We seek inflationary solutions to the resulting equations, performing our search numerically in order to avoid resorting to approximate parameterizations of the low-energy potential. We consider uplifting from D-terms and from the supersymmetry-breaking effects of anti-D3 branes. We find examples of slow-roll inflation (with anti-brane uplifting) with the mobile D3 moving along the toroidal directions, falling towards a D7-O7 stack starting from the antipodal point. The inflaton turns out to be a linear combination of the brane position and the axionic partner of the K3 volume modulus, and the similarity of the potential along the inflaton direction with that of racetrack inflation leads to the prediction n_s \le 0.95 for the spectral index. The slow roll is insensitive to most of the features of the effective superpotential, and requires a one-in-10^4 tuning to ensure that the torus is close to square in shape. We also consider D-term inflation with the D3 close to the attractive D7, but find that for a broad (but not exhaustive) class of parameters the conditions for slow roll tend to destabilize the bulk moduli. In contrast to the axionic case, the best inflationary example of this kind requires the delicate adjustment of potential parameters (much more than the part-per-mille level), and gives inflation only at an inflection point of the potential (and so suffers from additional fine-tuning of initial conditions to avoid an overshoot problem).Comment: 29 pages, 5 figure

An International Comparison of Employment Adjustment to Exchange Rate Fluctuations

This paper evaluates the response of employment to exchange rate shocks at the industry level for the G-7 countries. Using a simple empirical framework that places little a priori structure on the pattern of response to shocks, we find the data are consistent with the view that employment in European industries, at least France and Germany, is much less influenced by exchange rate shocks and much slower to adjust to long run steady states. The United States, Japan, Canada, the United Kingdom and Italy all appear to adjust more quickly. German and Japanese employment are quite insensitive to exchange rate fluctuations, consistent with previous research on output and markup responses to exchange rates.

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways.

BACKGROUND: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. METHODS: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. RESULTS: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. CONCLUSIONS: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes

Crosslink bio-adhesives for bronchoscopic lung volume reduction:current status and future direction

Several bronchoscopic lung volume reduction (BLVR) treatments have been developed to reduce hyperinflation in emphysema patients. Lung bio-adhesives are among the most promising new BLVR treatment options, as they potentially provide a permanent solution for emphysematous patients after only a single application. To date, bio-adhesives have mainly been used as haemostats and tissue sealants, while their application in permanently contracting and sealing hyperinflated lung tissue has recently been identified as a novel and enticing opportunity. However, a major drawback of the current adhesive technology is the induction of severe inflammatory responses and adverse events upon administration. In our review, we distinguish between and discuss various natural, semi-synthetic and synthetic tissue haemostats and sealants that have been used for pulmonary applications such as sealing air/fluid leaks. Furthermore, we present an overview of the different materials including AeriSeal and autologous blood that have been used to achieve lung volume reduction and discuss their respective advantages and drawbacks. In conclusion, we describe the key biological (therapeutic benefit and biocompatibility) and biomechanical (degradability, adhesive strength, stiffness, viscoelasticity, tunability and self-healing capacity) characteristics that are essential for an ideal lung bio-adhesive material with the potential to overcome the concerns related to current adhesives