Backward recalculation of seasonal series affected by economic crisis: a Model-Based-Link method for the case of Turkish GDP

When attempting to deal with the recalculation process, it is hard to answer the question “Does the recalculated series include economic events and seasonal behaviours in the past?”. This paper discusses some alternative backward recalculation methods and presents the applications and their results relative to the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. Using comparative analysis, it is shown that ordinary ARIMA forecasts and signal extraction methods are not successful at taking into account past events in the backward recalculated series. A new innovative method, named Modelbased-link, is then proposed and suggested by the authors in order to be able to take past economic events and seasonal patterns into account when the series is to be backward recalculated. A first application of this new method is run on the quarterly series of the Turkish GDP. In addition, it is shown that the Model-based-link method can be extended to data sets of different frequencies (i.e. annual data). Consequently, it can be claimed that a comparable recalculated quarterly and annual Turkish GDP series for forthcoming data is obtained. The paper is structured as following: section 1 introduces the reader to the state of the art in the current literature; section 2 defines the information set to be backward recalculated and presents some statistics on the data while section 3 presents the main methodological statistical aspects of classical methods compared to the methodological scheme of the Model-based-link that can be used for the recalculation process. Section 4 presents results of the methods mentioned in the previous section and section 5 discusses the extension of the Model-based-link method to monthly data and includes an application for annual data; section 6 concludes. Finally, section 7 presents topics for discussion and challenges for continuation of the analysis

AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION Flash Estimate 2004 and Forecast 2005

forecast, flash estimates

A Critical Analysis on the Lubrication Circuit of a Non-road Diesel Engine by Adopting a 3D and 1D Approaches

AbstractThe aim if this paper is the analysis of a lubrication circuit adopting two simulation models to study the influence of three different lubrication oils.First, the oils pump performance were analyzed with a tri-dimensional simulation model, realized with the commercial code PumpLinx®, which allowed to obtain the performance curves of the oil pump, varying the oils. Then the lubrication circuit was studied with a 1D model, realized with the commercial code LMS AMESim®, and the behaviour of the lubrication circuit was analyzed in terms of pressure drops and components oil consumption.The adopted oils were: 0W30; 5W40 and10W60. In previous activities, both models showed good correlation with experimental data.Analyzing the models results, it was noted that the pressure behavior in the lubrication circuit is highly influenced by the oil, especially for low engine speed and high temperatures.The adopted methodology, that couples mono-dimensional and tri-dimensional models, allowed to analyze the oil influence in a lubrication circuit, avoiding excessive computational cost, but with an acceptable accurac

Backward recalculation of seasonal series affected by economic crisis: a Model-Based-Link method for the case of Turkish GDP

When attempting to deal with the recalculation process, it is hard to answer the question “Does the recalculated series include economic events and seasonal behaviours in the past?”. This paper discusses some alternative backward recalculation methods and presents the applications and their results relative to the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) series. Using comparative analysis, it is shown that ordinary ARIMA forecasts and signal extraction methods are not successful at taking into account past events in the backward recalculated series. A new innovative method, named Modelbased-link, is then proposed and suggested by the authors in order to be able to take past economic events and seasonal patterns into account when the series is to be backward recalculated. A first application of this new method is run on the quarterly series of the Turkish GDP. In addition, it is shown that the Model-based-link method can be extended to data sets of different frequencies (i.e. annual data). Consequently, it can be claimed that a comparable recalculated quarterly and annual Turkish GDP series for forthcoming data is obtained. The paper is structured as following: section 1 introduces the reader to the state of the art in the current literature; section 2 defines the information set to be backward recalculated and presents some statistics on the data while section 3 presents the main methodological statistical aspects of classical methods compared to the methodological scheme of the Model-based-link that can be used for the recalculation process. Section 4 presents results of the methods mentioned in the previous section and section 5 discusses the extension of the Model-based-link method to monthly data and includes an application for annual data; section 6 concludes. Finally, section 7 presents topics for discussion and challenges for continuation of the analysis

3D CFD Transient Analysis of the Forces Acting on the Spool of a Directional Valve

Abstract In this paper, a study of a hydraulic directional valve using a tridimensional fluid-dynamic approach will be shown. During the valve spool displacement, the fluid-dynamics inside the valve creates forces who could reduce the valve performance. The adopted methodology allowed the valve designer to study the complex fluid-dynamic behavior inside the valve and greatly help them to design the internal geometry with the objective of improving the valve performance. This paper shows how a tridimensional fluid-dynamic approach can help engineers to develop the best valve geometry reducing the prototyping requirement and finally the time-to-market and, consequently, the development cost

A Tridimensional CFD Analysis of the Oil Pump of an High Performance Motorbike Engine

Abstract The main target of nowadays engine designers is to focus on exhaust emissions, fuel consumption and engine performance, so during the design phase of a new internal combustion engine, all the aspects related to friction and mechanical power loss must be deeply considered. And then, also the friction related to engine lubrication system must be analyzed and studied. In this paper a tridimensional CFD analysis of the lubrication circuit oil pump of a modern high-performance engine manufactured by Aprilia will be shown. The model was build up with PumpLinx®, a commercial CFD 3D code by Simerics Inc.®, taking into account all the phenomena associated to the fluid cavitation. The model was validated by data of an experimental campaign performed on a hydraulic test bench, at the Industrial Engineering Department of the University of Naples, Federico II

Taphonomic analysis of an articulated mysticete (Cetacea; Mysticeti) from the late Miocene Puerto Madryn Formation, Península Valdés, Patagonia, Argentina

Taphonomic studies of fossil cetaceans in Argentina are scarce and they were focused mainly in odontocetes and misticetes from the Gaiman Formation (lower Miocene of Patagonia).These analyses propose different factors (i.e., paleoenvironmental, paleobiological andpaleoecological) that controlled the preservation of cetaceans. Prospecting fieldworks on the Puerto Madryn Formation (late Miocene) result in the discovery of a well-preserved and articulated baleen whale (= Mysticeti) specimen in Peninsula Valdés, Chubut, Argentina. This specimen was the focus of a taphonomic analysis with a multidisciplinary approach including taxonomical, sedimentological, stratigraphic and ichnological analyses, with the aim of reconstructing the taphonomic processes and the paleoenvironmental conditions that played a role in the preservation of the specimen. The preliminary taxonomic analysis shows that the specimen corresponds to an adult to subadult belonging to the family Balaenidae.Fil: Farroni, Nicolás Daniel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto Patagónico de Geología y Paleontología; ArgentinaFil: Cuitiño, José Ignacio. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto Patagónico de Geología y Paleontología; ArgentinaFil: Lazo, Dario Gustavo. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Departamento de Ciencias Geológicas; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber". Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Estudios Andinos "Don Pablo Groeber"; ArgentinaFil: Buono, Mónica Romina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Centro Nacional Patagónico. Instituto Patagónico de Geología y Paleontología; Argentina9th International Meeting on the Secondary Adaptation of Tetrapods to Life in Water Virtual MeetingSantiago de ChileChileAsociación Paleontológica ArgentinaAsociación Chilena de Paleontologí

Performances and Emissions of a 2-Stroke Diesel Engine Fueled with Biofuel Blends☆

Abstract Diesel engines are worldwide used as a primary power source not only in motor vehicles, but also in off-road engine applications. Two-stroke Diesel engine is most commonly seen in applications demanding a large power output, such as ships and electric generation plants. The use of biofuels has increased during the last years in response to concerns about climate change and to increase security of supply. In this paper some results obtained with a 2-Stroke 6V53 Detroit Diesel (5.22L displacement, 150 kW at 2800 rpm) fueled with a commercial diesel fuel and biodiesel (100%RME) are discussed. CO, NO/NOx, CO 2 and particulate matter (PM) have been sampled at 1 Hz in different load conditions and fuel consumption has been measured. A catalyzed Diesel particulate filter (DPF) has been also installed at the exhaust to reduce PM emissions and the influence of fuel quality on emissions and fuel consumption was analyzed. The installation of DPF has involved an average of less than 10% fuel economy penalty for both tested fuels. A passive DPF system can be easily installed at the exhaust of in-use engine and it permits to reduce more than 90% PM emissions

Imaging features of pancreatic metastases: A comparison with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

Purpose: To compare imaging features of pancreatic metastases (PM) with those of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDAC). Methods: CT and MR scans of 24 patients with 54 PM and 30 patients with PDAC were reviewed to evaluate the imaging features, which were compared by using a Chi square test. Results: We found a statistically significant difference between PM and PDAC based on location (P < 0.001), margins (P < 0.001), arterial enhancement (P = 0.004), rim enhancement (P < 0.001), pancreatic duct dilatation (P = 0.01), common bile duct dilatation (P = 0.003), vascular involvement (P = 0.02), parenchymal atrophy (P < 0.001), peripancreatic fluid (P = 0.03). Conclusion: Imaging features might be helpful to differentiate PM from PDAC