The Rock and Ice Problem in National Parks: An Opportunity for Monitoring Climate Change Impacts

The fundamental physics of an enhanced greenhouse effect due to fossil fuel combustion is well understood, and Earth is warming (IPCC 2007). Considerable uncertainty exists regarding the impacts of climate change, but high latitudes and high elevations are thought to be leading indicators of future trends. The suite of high-elevation lands protected by the National Park Service is ideal in terms of documenting and monitoring the physical, floral, and faunal impacts of climate change. Indeed, the network of alpine lands managed by the Park Service in the mountainous western United States spans maritime-to-arid ecosystems over a dozen degrees of latitude (fig. 1). The web grows even farther if we consider alpine park units in Hawaii, Alaska, and the eastern United States. It is a network that has no other analog and offers unparalleled opportunities for global change monitoring

Responses of the Circumpolar Boreal Forest to 20th Century Climate Variability

We examined relationships between tree ring-width and climate at 232 sites around the circumpolar boreal forest to explore variability in two types of response to temperature: a browning response characterized by inverse correlations between growth and temperature, and a greening response characterized by positive correlations between growth and temperature. We used moving-window correlation analysis for eight 30-year time windows, lagged by 10 years, to characterize the climate response at each site from 1902 to 2002. Inverse growth responses to temperature were widespread, occurring in all species, all time periods, and in nearly all geographic areas. The frequency of the browning response increased after 1942, while the frequency of the greening response declined. Browning was concentrated in five species (Picea abies, Picea glauca, Picea mariana,Picea obovata and Pinus banksiana), and occurred more frequently in the warmer parts of species\u27 ranges, suggesting that direct temperature stress might be a factor. In some species, dry sites were also more likely to experience browning; moisture stress might thus be an additional explanation in some cases. As inverse responses to temperature are widespread, and occur in a broad array of species, there is unlikely to be any single explanation for their occurrence

Trends in Satellite-Observed Circumpolar Photosynthetic Activity from 1982 to 2003: The Influence of Seasonality, Cover Type, and Vegetation Density

Time series analyses of a 22-yr record of satellite observations across the northern circumpolar high latitudes were conducted, and trends in vegetation photosynthetic activity were assessed using a series of statistical tests. The results indicate that most of the northern circumpolar high latitudes (\u3e85%) showed no significant trend in vegetation activity despite systematic climate warming during the period of analysis. Of the areas that did change, many showed the expected trends in “greening” of vegetation activity. There were, however, significant differences in the magnitude and even in the direction of trends when stratified by vegetation type and density. Tundra areas consistently and predominantly showed greening trends. Forested areas showed declines in activity (“browning”) in many areas, and these were systematically higher in areas with denser tree cover—whether deciduous or evergreen, needle- or broad-leafed. The seasonality of the trends was also distinct between vegetation types, with a divergence in trends between late spring and early summer (positive) versus late summer (negative) portions of the growing seasons in forested areas. In contrast, tundra and other predominantly herbaceous areas showed positive trends in all portions of the growing season. These results confirm recent findings across the high latitudes of North America and are supported by an increasing array of in situ measurements. They indicate that the boreal forest biome might be responding to climate change in previously unexpected ways, and point to a need for an expanded observational network, additional analysis of existing datasets (e.g., tree rings), and improvements in process models of ecosystem responses to climate change

Northern High-Latitude Ecosystems Respond to Climate Change

The northern high latitudes are an area of particular importance to global climate change. As a system dependent on freezing conditions, the top of the planet contains vast amounts of carbon in biomass, soils, and permafrost that have the potential to interact with the atmosphere through the biosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and cryosphere. If released en masse, this carbon would greatly exacerbate the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Over the past 2 years, a growing body of research has provided evidence of substantial but idiosyncratic environmental changes, with some surprising aspects, across the region. This article reviews some recent findings and presents a new analysis of northern vegetation photosynthetic and productivity trends tracked from Earth observing satellites

Observed and Predicted Responses of Plant Growth to Climate across Canada

Using satellite observations from 1981–2000, and data interpolated from surface weather stations, we examined the association between gross photosynthetic activity (Pg) and climate across the boreal forest and tundra of Canada. The response of annual and interannual Pg was tightly coupled to climate, and seasonal associations between Pg and climate varied with plant functional types. The most important variable for modeling summer growth of conifer forests was the previous spring minimum temperature, whereas tundra responded primarily to summer maximum temperature. Using general circulation model predictors to 2050, we project that tundra will continue to grow vigorously in the coming decades while conifer forests will not. Increased tundra productivity will likely be associated with changes in vegetation composition (e.g., woody proliferation). If these biotic responses are stationary and persist as predicted, terrestrial carbon budgets will need to be modified

Spatial Variation in Distribution and Growth Patterns of Old Growth Strip-Bark Pines

Postindustrial rises in CO2 have the potential to confound the interpretation of climatically sensitive tree-ring chronologies. Increased growth rates observed during the 20th century in strip-bark trees have been attributed to CO2 fertilization. Absent in the debate of CO2 effects on tree growth are spatially explicit analyses that examine the proximate mechanisms that lead to changes in rates of tree growth. Twenty-seven pairs of strip-bark and companion entire-bark trees were analyzed in a spatially explicit framework for abiotic environmental correlates. The strip-bark tree locations were not random but correlated to an abiotic proxy for soil moisture. The strip-bark trees showed a characteristic increase in growth rates after about 1875. Furthermore, the difference in growth rates between the strip-bark trees and entire-bark companions increased with increasing soil moisture. A possible mechanism for these findings is that CO2 is affecting water-use efficiency, which in turn affects tree-ring growth. These results point to the importance of accounting for microsite variability in analyzing the potential role of CO2 in governing growth responses

Multi-Year Lags Between Forest Browning and Soil Respiration at High Northern Latitudes

High-latitude northern ecosystems are experiencing rapid climate changes, and represent a large potential climate feedback because of their high soil carbon densities and shifting disturbance regimes. A significant carbon flow from these ecosystems is soil respiration (RS, the flow of carbon dioxide, generated by plant roots and soil fauna, from the soil surface to atmosphere), and any change in the high-latitude carbon cycle might thus be reflected in RSobserved in the field. This study used two variants of a machine-learning algorithm and least squares regression to examine how remotely-sensed canopy greenness (NDVI), climate, and other variables are coupled to annual RS based on 105 observations from 64 circumpolar sites in a global database. The addition of NDVI roughly doubled model performance, with the best-performing models explaining ~62% of observed RS variability. We show that early-summer NDVI from previous years is generally the best single predictor of RS, and is better than current-year temperature or moisture. This implies significant temporal lags between these variables, with multi-year carbon pools exerting large-scale effects. Areas of decreasing RS are spatially correlated with browning boreal forests and warmer temperatures, particularly in western North America. We suggest that total circumpolar RS may have slowed by ~5% over the last decade, depressed by forest stress and mortality, which in turn decrease RS. Arctic tundra may exhibit a significantly different response, but few data are available with which to test this. Combining large-scale remote observations and small-scale field measurements, as done here, has the potential to allow inferences about the temporal and spatial complexity of the large-scale response of northern ecosystems to changing climate

Cluster Analysis and Topoclimate Modeling to Examine Bristlecone Pine Tree-ring Growth Signals in the Great Basin, USA

Tree rings have long been used to make inferences about the environmental factors that influence tree growth. Great Basin bristlecone pine is a long-lived species and valuable dendroclimatic resource, but often with mixed growth signals; in many cases, not all trees at one location are limited by the same environmental variable. Past work has identified an elevational threshold below the upper treeline above which trees are limited by temperature, and below which trees tend to be moisture limited. This study identifies a similar threshold in terms of temperature instead of elevation through fine-scale topoclimatic modeling, which uses a suite of topographic and temperature-sensor data to predict temperatures across landscapes. We sampled trees near the upper limit of growth at four high-elevation locations in the Great Basin region, USA, and used cluster analysis to find dual-signal patterns in radial growth. We observed dual-signal patterns in ring widths at two of those sites, with the signals mimicking temperature and precipitation patterns. Trees in temperature-sensitive clusters grew in colder areas, while moisture-sensitive cluster trees grew in warmer areas. We found thresholds between temperatureand moisture-sensitivity ranging from 7.4 °C to 8°C growing season mean temperature. Our findings allow for a better physiological understanding of bristlecone pine growth, and seek to improve the accuracy of climate reconstructions

High-Latitude Tree Growth and Satellite Vegetation Indices: Correlations and Trends in Russia and Canada (1982-2008)

Vegetation in northern high latitudes affects regional and global climate through energy partitioning and carbon storage. Spaceborne observations of vegetation, largely based on the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), suggest decreased productivity during recent decades in many regions of the Eurasian and North American boreal forests. To improve interpretation of NDVI trends over forest regions, we examined the relationship between NDVI from the advanced very high resolution radiometers and tree ring width measurements, a proxy of tree productivity. We collected tree core samples from spruce, pine, and larch at 22 sites in northeast Russia and northwest Canada. Annual growth rings were measured and used to generate site-level ring width index (RWI) chronologies. Correlation analysis was used to assess the association between RWI and summer NDVI from 1982 to 2008, while linear regression was used to examine trends in both measurements. The correlation between NDVI and RWI was highly variable across sites, though consistently positive (r = 0.43, SD = 0.19, n = 27). We observed significant temporal autocorrelation in both NDVI and RWI measurements at sites with evergreen conifers (spruce and pine), though weak autocorrelation at sites with deciduous conifers (larch). No sites exhibited a positive trend in both NDVI and RWI, although five sites showed negative trends in both measurements. While there are technological and physiological limitations to this approach, these findings demonstrate a positive association between NDVI and tree ring measurements, as well as the importance of considering lagged effects when modeling vegetation productivity using satellite data

Climate Response in Near-Treeline Bristlecone Pine

In the White Mountains of California, eight bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva) tree-ring width chronologies were developed from trees at upper treeline and just below upper treeline along North- and South-facing elevational transects from treeline to ~90 m below. There is evidence for a climate-response threshold between approximately 60–80 vertical m below treeline, above which trees have shown a positive growth-response to temperature and below which they do not. Chronologies from 80 m or more below treeline show a change in climate response and do not correlate strongly with temperature-sensitive chronologies developed from trees growing at upper treeline. Rather, they more closely resemble lower elevation precipitation-sensitive chronologies. At the highest sites, trees on South-facing slopes grow faster than trees on North-facing slopes. High growth rates in the treeline South-facing trees have declined since the mid- 1990s. This suggests the possibility that the climate-response of the highest South-facing trees may have changed and that temperature may no longer be the main limiting factor for growth on the South aspect. These results indicate that increasing warmth may lead to a divergence between tree growth and temperature at previously temperature-limited sites