Visual Census of Reef Fish Assemblages: A Comparison of Slate, Audio, and Video Recording Devices

Fish assemblage data were recorded using slate, audio, and video techniques with a point-count visual census technique under controlled conditions. The community variables (number of species, number of individuals, and species diversity) describing the assemblage were generally similar for all three recording methods but audio recorded parameters were higher in magnitude. Slate and audio techniques were more similar to each other than each was to video with regard to the assemblage variables. Community resemblances were high for pairwise comparisons for all three recording methods. Users should be aware that certain species are more likely to contribute to differences in faunal comparisons than others. The simultaneous recording of fish assemblage date in situ using audio/video is recommended

A Comparison of Three Methods for Visually Assessing Reef Fish Communities: Time and Area Compensated

Reef fish assemblage survey results using Transect, Point, and Random in situ visual assessment techniques were evaluated and compared on a coral reef biotope off the southwestern coast of Puerto Rico. Parameters compared were: number of species, number of individuals, and species diversity (H\u27). No significant effect attributable to the time-of-day when the surveys were conducted was noted to occur. Variability in observations between divers was not noted for any of the dependent variables while conducting the Transect method. Divers using the Random technique recorded the highest number of species per survey, while the assemblage parameters recorded using Transect and Point methods were statistically similar for most dependent variables. Point surveys, however, had a higher and less variable species diversity. When the data were adjusted for amount of survey time and area it was determined that divers were more efficient in sampling numbers of individuals when using the Transect method

Factors Associated with Artificial-Reef Fish Assemblages

Visual census (5-min point-count, 100 m2) was used to estimate fish assemblage parameters associated with artificial reef variables from 64 reefs over a 3-yr period in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Dependent variables, recorded by divers [i.e., number of species, number of individuals, length (TL in cm), and species diversity (H\u27)], were analyzed for their associations with potentially underlying environmental attributes using stepwise regression, TWINSPAN, and canonical correspondence analyses (CCA). The fish assemblages (dominated by haemulids, labrids, and serranids) were qualitatively and quantitatively similar to the assemblages described by others from the same general area. Pelagic fishes (carangids and scombrids) associated with the reefs were among the most numerous and were the largest predators in the assemblage. The stepwise regression analysis was able to account for fairly high percentages of the variation in number of species (37%), number of red snapper (43%), and size of red snapper (52%). TWINSPAN allowed the recognition of fish assemblages based on their inshore-offshore biotopes. Vermilion snapper was identified as a key indicator species. The CCA helped identify species groups and factors associated with them. The affinity of pinfish and spottail pinfish with rock jetty was evident, as was the association of triggerfish with vertical steel structure. Although the axis loadings using CCA did not identify a clear species/factor relationship, this analytical method should prove useful in recognizing environmental factors that can be controlled to optimize species-specific artificial reef construction

Selected fiscal and economic effects on presidential elections

In a previous article published in Presidential Studies Quarterly, the effects of fiscal expansion and fiscal cut-back on presidential elections were examined. This article carries the analysis a step further, controlling for certain economic effects. When inflation and economic growth are taken into account, fiscal policy is the single best predictor of whether the incumbent party elects its candidate to the White House. However, inflation/ deflation is the best predictor of the share of the popular vote going to the incumbent party.Final article publishedJournal Articl

Fiscal policy as a forecasting factor in presidential elections

This research note presents a model in which fiscal policy, measured by changes in the ratio of federal outlays to gross national product between election years, is a factor in explaining and forecasting the outcome of the past 30 presidential elections. Compared with six forecasting models assembled in a special issue of this journal in the fall of 1996, the model performs satisfactorily. The model implies that to win reelection or extend his party's tenure in the White House, a president should reject a policy of fiscal expansion. It is hoped that this article will stimulate students of presidential elections to add policy variables to their forecasting models.PublishedJournal Articl

Fiscal policy in American presidential elections: A simulation

In this paper a simulation technique borrowed from civil engineering is applied to American presidential elections to explore the key relationship between federal spending and incumbent reelection, represented by the fiscal model. On the one hand, as Machiavelli would have understood, an expansionary fiscal policy militates against incumbent reelection but a cutback policy facilitates it. That is the ‘demand’ side of the model. There is also a ‘supply’ side: the longer the incumbents have occupied the White House, the more likely they are to implement fiscal expansion. We simulated 1,000 elections under conditions that replicated the values of the predictor variables of the fiscal model over the 1880–2004 and 1932–2004 periods of American history. The latter period deserves attention in its own right, because starting with the 1932 election, the federal share of gross domestic product broke out of the 2–3% range for the first time since World War One. This marked a qualitative change in the role of government in the United States of America. The simulated series allow patterns that are weakly detected in the historical data to emerge more clearly for observation and analysis. The results of the simulations not only confirm the empirical findings from the historical data, but suggest that the American political system is stable, maintaining alternation between political parties in the White House, a characteristic of democracies, and keeping fiscal policy within bounds of what the majority of the voters will support.PublishedJournal Articl