Selected fiscal and economic effects on presidential elections

Abstract

In a previous article published in Presidential Studies Quarterly, the effects of fiscal expansion and fiscal cut-back on presidential elections were examined. This article carries the analysis a step further, controlling for certain economic effects. When inflation and economic growth are taken into account, fiscal policy is the single best predictor of whether the incumbent party elects its candidate to the White House. However, inflation/ deflation is the best predictor of the share of the popular vote going to the incumbent party.Final article publishedJournal Articl