Measuring the impacts of monetary policy in Turkey: an extended structural vector autoregressive model with structural breaks

The goal of this paper is to measure the impacts of monetary policy shocks in Turkey using monthly data spanning the period 2011:M01–2021:M12. To that end, the paper extends the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology with structural breaks. The findings show that a positive monetary policy shock, namely an increase in interest rates, results in a decrease in consumer prices and the exchange rate. The findings also exhibit that a positive shock in the exchange rate, namely the depreciation of the TRY against foreign currencies, increases interest rates and consumer prices. The implications of these findings in terms of monetary policy in Turkey are discussed in the paper. © 2022, Japan Economic Policy Association (JEPA)

Do financial conditions have a predictive power on inflation in Turkey?

This paper aims at examining the causal relationships between financial conditions and inflation in Turkey by employing quarterly data from 2005:Q1 to 2015:Q3. To this end, the paper, first, constructs a financial conditions index (FCI) in Turkey and observes that the FCI can considerably capture the developments in Turkey and in the world. Then, the paper follows unit root tests. Finally, the paper conducts the asymmetric causality test. The asymmetric causality test explores that the FCI and inflation have a predictive power on each other and thus presents valuable information to the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). Eventually, upon its findings, the paper asserts that the FCI (i) should be updated periodically, (ii) should be extended with new financial variables, if necessary, and (iii) should be monitored carefully by the CBRT in order to achieve inflation targets

The Role of Schooling in Struggling with the Middle-Income Trap: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Abstract. This paper aims at examining the relationship between average years of total schooling and GDP per capita for six middle-income countries over the period 1950-2010. To this end, the paper employs panel FMOLS and panel DOLS estimators and panel Granger causality test based on vector error correction model. According to the output from estimations, GDP per capita is positively related to average years of total schooling and there is a bidirectional causality between variables. In conclusion, the paper argues that average years of schooling of people should be increased to struggle with the middle-income trap.Keywords. Middle-income trap, Human capital, Schooling, GDP per capita, Panel data analysis.JEL. C23, I25, O15

Efficacy of Gain Index in Predicting the Economic Impacts of Climate Change to Tourism Receipts in the Mediterranean Basin

This study tests the efficacy of Global Adaptation Institute (GAIN) Index, which summarizes a country\u27s vulnerability to climate change and its readiness to improve resilience, in estimating the economic impacts of climate change to tourism. We employ panel cointegration and panel DOLS methods for sixteen countries (Albania, Croatia, Cyprus, Egypt, France, Greece, Israel, Italy, Lebanon, Malta, Morocco, Slovenia, Spain, Syrian Arab Republic, Tunisia and Turkey) that have a coastline on the Mediterranean Sea. The results indicate that there is a cointegration relation in the model, and tourist arrivals depend negatively on vulnerability and economic readiness and depend positively on governances and social readiness

Relationship between Energy Consumption and Real Gross Domestic Production in Turkey: A Co-integration Analysis with Structural Breaks

Energy is one of the most fundamental requirements for a sustainable economy in many of the emerging countries. Being one of these emerging countries, Turkey has inadequate energy sources and this increases its foreign source dependency for energy. Likewise, experiencing negative energy shocks decreases the economic growth rate.  Analyzing the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth by taking into account the structural changes caused by internal shocks and external shocks experienced in the country is of great importance for the Turkish economy. In this study, the long term relationship between energy consumption and real gross domestic production in the period between 1960 and 2012 has been investigated by employing co-integration methods and the vector error correction model. Results of our study show that there is a long term relationship between the series and one-way causality from real gross domestic production to energy consumption. These findings clearly state that economic growth has an important role in energy consumption. Keywords: Energy Consumption; Economic Growth; Co-integration Test with Multiple Structural Breaks JEL Classification: C32; O4; Q4

Plasma Kisspeptin-54 levels in gastric cancer patients

AbstractBackgroundKisspeptin (Kisspeptin-54; KP-54) is a 54-amino acid peptide was originally known as metastin that was implicated in suppression of tumor metastasis and circulating kisspeptin has been proposed as a tumor marker for numerous cancers in humans. However, the plasma level of KP-54 in gastric cancer (GC) remains undetermined.AimWe aimed to investigate the plasma levels of KP-54 in patients with GC.MethodsPlasma KP-54 levels were quantified with enzyme-immunoassay from blood samples of 40 patients with GC at their initial staging and 59 age-matched controls.ResultsPlasma KP-54 levels were significantly higher in GC patients (63.3 ± 17.9) than in controls (49.0 ± 12.7) (p = 0.000). Cut-off value for KP-54 was determined as 44 ng/ml and sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value, were 60%, 78%, 63%, and 74% respectively. Plasma KP-54 levels were not correlated with any clinicopathological features of GC patients (p > 0.05).ConclusionsResult of our preliminary study suggest that plasma KP-54 levels might be a useful parameter in diagnosis of GC

Odnos ızmeđu boje bazena ı prırasta mlađı evropskog brancına (dıcentrarchus labrax)

Dizajn sistema za gajenje riba je veoma bitan za održivu i visoko profitabilnu proizvodnju u akvakulturi. Različitim vrstama riba potrebani su drugačije dizajnirani sistemi i veštačke sredine. Sistemi u zatvorenom prostoru su korisni za mrestilišta a tankovi su veštačka staništa za vrste gajene u tim sistemima. Prethodna istraživanja pokazuju da boja zida bazena utiče na nivo stresa kod riba (Rotlant et al., 2003) i parametre koji utiču na rast, a dobrobit riba može da bude ugrožena u stresnim uslovima (De Silva and Anderson 1994). Cilj ovog istraživanja je da ispita efekte koje različite boje zidova tankova imaju na prirast mlađi Evropskog brancina (Dicentrarchus labrax). 480 jedinki mlađi nasumice su raspoređene u 12 identičnih plastičnih tankova (40 jedinki po tanku). Zapremina svakog bazena iznosila je 40 litara. U triplikatu su korišćene četiri različite boje bazena (crvena, zelena, plava i svetlo žuta). Riba je hranjena komercijalnom hranomn za brancina 2 puta dnevno u period od 60 dana. Najveći prirast dostigla je riba gajena u crvenim bazenima, dok je riba gajena u žutim bazenima imala najmanji prirast. Prethodna istraživanja su pokazala da boja zida bazena utiče na prirast ribe u uslovima gajenja i da je različitim vrstama riba potrebna drugačija boja bazena da bi postigle najbolji prirast (Duray et al., 1996; Rotland et al., 2003; Imanpoor and Abdollahi, 2011). Rezultati pokazuju da boja bazena utiče na prirast riba u uslovima gajenja

Energy Consumption-Youth Unemployment Nexus in Europe: Evidence from Panel Cointegration and Panel Causality Analyses

This paper employs a panel data set of 20 European countries and examines the impacts of energy consumption on youth unemployment over the period 1990-2011. We employed panel FMOLS and panel DOLS estimations, panel Granger causality tests based on vector error correction model and panel causality tests of Emirmahmutoglu and Kose (2011) and Dumitreschu and Hurlin (2012). According to the panel FMOLS and DOLS estimators results, there is negative impact of energy consumption on youth unemployment rates. In addition, the causality tests yield unidirectional causality from energy consumption to youth unemployment rates. The outcome of this paper explores the importance of energy policies to decrease youth unemployment rates and, hence, it may suggests policymakers follow relevant policies encouraging energy consumption and new potential energy investments to diminish youth unemployment rates. Keywords: energy consumption; youth unemployment; panel analysis; EU JEL Classifications: C33, E24, Q4

A simplified acute kidney injury predictor following transcatheter aortic valve implantation: ACEF score

Background: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is an effective, less invasive treatment alternative for symptomatic severe aortic stenosis (AS). Acute kidney injury (AKI) following TAVI is a common complication and is associated with worse outcomes. The age, creatinine, ejection fraction (ACEF) score is a simple scoring method, including only three parameters: age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (EF). The score was well established in predicting AKI after coronary interventions.Aims: We aimed to evaluate whether this simple scoring method, ACEF, may predict a development of AKI in patients who underwent TAVI.Methods: A total of 173 consecutive patients with symptomatic severe AS who underwent TAVI were included retrospectively. The primary endpoint of the study was the development of AKI. Study population was divided into two groups according to the presence of AKI. The ACEF score was calculated with the formula: age/EF + 1 (if baseline creatinine >2 mg/dl).Results: Twenty-nine patients developed AKI. The median (interquartile range) ACEF score was 1.36 (1.20–1.58). The ACEF score was found to be an independent predictor of AKI (P <0.001). The ACEF score ≥1.36 predicted AKI development with a sensitivity of 96.6% and specificity of 58.8%. Moreover, hypertension, hemoglobin levels, contrast volume, and aortic valve area (AVA) were found to be independent predictors of AKI.Conclusions: Our study revealed that the ACEF score was an independent predictor of AKI. A simple and objective score might be very useful in predicting AKI development in patients undergoing TAVI

Monetary Policy and Asset Prices in the Period Following the Global Crisis: The Case of Turkey

WOS: 000425085400002This paper aims at examining whether the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) reacts to changes in asset prices in the period following the global crisis. To this end, the reaction function of the CBRT is extended with exchange rate gap and stock market index gap. According to the findings of the empirical analysis, the CBRT considers the difference between expected inflation and inflation target and exchange rate gap while it is adjusting interest rates. These findings show that exchange rates have significant effects on the interest rate adjustments of the CBRT beyond affecting inflation expectations in the period following the global crisis