Methodological conduct of prognostic prediction models developed using machine learning in oncology: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Describe and evaluate the methodological conduct of prognostic prediction models developed using machine learning methods in oncology. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review in MEDLINE and Embase between 01/01/2019 and 05/09/2019, for studies developing a prognostic prediction model using machine learning methods in oncology. We used the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) statement, Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool (PROBAST) and CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) to assess the methodological conduct of included publications. Results were summarised by modelling type: regression-, non-regression-based and ensemble machine learning models. RESULTS: Sixty-two publications met inclusion criteria developing 152 models across all publications. Forty-two models were regression-based, 71 were non-regression-based and 39 were ensemble models. A median of 647 individuals (IQR: 203 to 4059) and 195 events (IQR: 38 to 1269) were used for model development, and 553 individuals (IQR: 69 to 3069) and 50 events (IQR: 17.5 to 326.5) for model validation. A higher number of events per predictor was used for developing regression-based models (median: 8, IQR: 7.1 to 23.5), compared to alternative machine learning (median: 3.4, IQR: 1.1 to 19.1) and ensemble models (median: 1.7, IQR: 1.1 to 6). Sample size was rarely justified (n = 5/62; 8%). Some or all continuous predictors were categorised before modelling in 24 studies (39%). 46% (n = 24/62) of models reporting predictor selection before modelling used univariable analyses, and common method across all modelling types. Ten out of 24 models for time-to-event outcomes accounted for censoring (42%). A split sample approach was the most popular method for internal validation (n = 25/62, 40%). Calibration was reported in 11 studies. Less than half of models were reported or made available. CONCLUSIONS: The methodological conduct of machine learning based clinical prediction models is poor. Guidance is urgently needed, with increased awareness and education of minimum prediction modelling standards. Particular focus is needed on sample size estimation, development and validation analysis methods, and ensuring the model is available for independent validation, to improve quality of machine learning based clinical prediction models

Reduced Performance of Prey Targeting in Pit Vipers with Contralaterally Occluded Infrared and Visual Senses

Both visual and infrared (IR) senses are utilized in prey targeting by pit vipers. Visual and IR inputs project to the contralateral optic tectum where they activate both multimodal and bimodal neurons. A series of ocular and pit organ occlusion experiments using the short-tailed pit viper (Gloydius brevicaudus) were conducted to investigate the role of visual and IR information during prey targeting. Compared with unoccluded controls, snakes with either both eyes or pit organs occluded performed more poorly in hunting prey although such subjects still captured prey on 75% of trials. Subjects with one eye and one pit occluded on the same side of the face performed as well as those with bilateral occlusion although these subjects showed a significant targeting angle bias toward the unoccluded side. Performance was significantly poorer when only a single eye or pit was available. Interestingly, when one eye and one pit organ were occluded on opposite sides of the face, performance was poorest, the snakes striking prey on no more than half the trials. These results indicate that, visual and infrared information are both effective in prey targeting in this species, although interference between the two modalities occurs if visual and IR information is restricted to opposite sides of the brain

Multiple populations in globular clusters. Lessons learned from the Milky Way globular clusters

Recent progress in studies of globular clusters has shown that they are not simple stellar populations, being rather made of multiple generations. Evidence stems both from photometry and spectroscopy. A new paradigm is then arising for the formation of massive star clusters, which includes several episodes of star formation. While this provides an explanation for several features of globular clusters, including the second parameter problem, it also opens new perspectives about the relation between globular clusters and the halo of our Galaxy, and by extension of all populations with a high specific frequency of globular clusters, such as, e.g., giant elliptical galaxies. We review progress in this area, focusing on the most recent studies. Several points remain to be properly understood, in particular those concerning the nature of the polluters producing the abundance pattern in the clusters and the typical timescale, the range of cluster masses where this phenomenon is active, and the relation between globular clusters and other satellites of our Galaxy.Comment: In press (The Astronomy and Astrophysics Review

Systematic Functional Analysis of Bicaudal-D Serine Phosphorylation and Intragenic Suppression of a Female Sterile Allele of BicD

Protein phosphorylation is involved in posttranslational control of essentially all biological processes. Using mass spectrometry, recent analyses of whole phosphoproteomes led to the identification of numerous new phosphorylation sites. However, the function of most of these sites remained unknown. We chose the Drosophila Bicaudal-D protein to estimate the importance of individual phosphorylation events. Being involved in different cellular processes, BicD is required for oocyte determination, for RNA transport during oogenesis and embryogenesis, and for photoreceptor nuclei migration in the developing eye. The numerous roles of BicD and the available evidence for functional importance of BicD phosphorylation led us to identify eight phosphorylation sites of BicD, and we tested a total of 14 identified and suspected phosphoserine residues for their functional importance in vivo in flies. Surprisingly, all these serines turned out to be dispensable for providing sufficient basal BicD activity for normal growth and development. However, in a genetically sensitized background where the BicDA40V protein variant provides only partial activity, serine 103 substitutions are not neutral anymore, but show surprising differences. The S103D substitution completely inactivates the protein, whereas S103A behaves neutral, and the S103F substitution, isolated in a genetic screen, restores BicDA40V function. Our results suggest that many BicD phosphorylation events may either be fortuitous or play a modulating function as shown for Ser103. Remarkably, amongst the Drosophila serines we found phosphorylated, Ser103 is the only one that is fully conserved in mammalian BicD

Modelling the Dynamics of Feral Alfalfa Populations and Its Management Implications

BACKGROUND: Feral populations of cultivated crops can pose challenges to novel trait confinement within agricultural landscapes. Simulation models can be helpful in investigating the underlying dynamics of feral populations and determining suitable management options. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We developed a stage-structured matrix population model for roadside feral alfalfa populations occurring in southern Manitoba, Canada. The model accounted for the existence of density-dependence and recruitment subsidy in feral populations. We used the model to investigate the long-term dynamics of feral alfalfa populations, and to evaluate the effectiveness of simulated management strategies such as herbicide application and mowing in controlling feral alfalfa. Results suggest that alfalfa populations occurring in roadside habitats can be persistent and less likely to go extinct under current roadverge management scenarios. Management attempts focused on controlling adult plants alone can be counterproductive due to the presence of density-dependent effects. Targeted herbicide application, which can achieve complete control of seedlings, rosettes and established plants, will be an effective strategy, but the seedbank population may contribute to new recruits. In regions where roadside mowing is regularly practiced, devising a timely mowing strategy (early- to mid-August for southern Manitoba), one that can totally prevent seed production, will be a feasible option for managing feral alfalfa populations. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Feral alfalfa populations can be persistent in roadside habitats. Timely mowing or regular targeted herbicide application will be effective in managing feral alfalfa populations and limit feral-population-mediated gene flow in alfalfa. However, in the context of novel trait confinement, the extent to which feral alfalfa populations need to be managed will be dictated by the tolerance levels established by specific production systems for specific traits. The modelling framework outlined in this paper could be applied to other perennial herbaceous plants with similar life-history characteristics

RNA localization in neurite morphogenesis and synaptic regulation: current evidence and novel approaches

It is now generally accepted that RNA localization in the central nervous system conveys important roles both during development and in the adult brain. Of special interest is protein synthesis located at the synapse, as this potentially confers selective synaptic modification and has been implicated in the establishment of memories. However, the underlying molecular events are largely unknown. In this review, we will first discuss novel findings that highlight the role of RNA localization in neurons. We will focus on the role of RNA localization in neurotrophin signaling, axon outgrowth, dendrite and dendritic spine morphogenesis as well as in synaptic plasticity. Second, we will briefly present recent work on the role of microRNAs in translational control in dendrites and its implications for learning and memory. Finally, we discuss recent approaches to visualize RNAs in living cells and their employment for studying RNA trafficking in neurons

Contribution of a Common Variant in the Promoter of the 1-α-Hydroxylase Gene (CYP27B1) to Fracture Risk in the Elderly

CYP27B1 encodes mitochondrial 1α-hydroxylase, which converts 25-hydroxyvitamin D to its active 1,25-dihydroxylated metabolite. We tested the hypothesis that common variants in the CYP27B1 promoter are associated with fracture risk. The study was designed as a population-based genetic association study, which involved 153 men and 596 women aged 65–101 years, who had been followed for 2.2 years (range 0.1–5.5) between 1999 and 2006. During the follow-up period, the incidence of fragility fractures was ascertained. Bone ultrasound attenuation (BUA) was measured in all individuals, as were serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and PTH concentrations; 86% subjects had vitamin D insufficiency. Genotypes were determined for the –1260C>A (rs10877012) and +2838T>C (rs4646536) CYP27B1 polymorphisms. A reporter gene assay was used to assess functional expression of the –1260C>A CYP27B1 variants. The association between genotypes and fracture risk was analyzed by Cox’s proportional hazards model. We found that genotypic distribution of CYP27B1 –1260 and CYP27B1 +2838 polymorphisms was consistent with the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium law. The two polymorphisms were in high linkage disequilibrium, with D′ = 0.96 and r2 = 0.94. Each C allele of the CYP27B1 –1260 polymorphism was associated with increased risk of fracture (hazard ratio = 1.34, 95% CI 1.03–1.73), after adjustment for age, sex, number of falls, and BUA. In transient transfection studies, a reporter gene downstream of the –1260(A)-containing promoter was more highly expressed than that containing the C allele. These data suggest that a common but functional variation within the CYP27B1 promoter gene is associated with fracture risk in the elderly

Ethnic-Racial Socialization in Early Childhood: The Implications of Color-Consciousness and Colorblindness for Prejudice Development

This chapter outlines how early childhood teachers can bring children into conversations surrounding race and racism by drawing on literature on how parents of color discuss these topics. Although educators’ practices surrounding race and racism remain largely unexplored, decades of developmental psychological research indicate that parents of color engage in ethnic-racial socialization practices that are beneficial for children (Hughes et al., 2006). The established dimensions of parental ethnic-racial socialization include (1) cultural socialization, or teaching children about their ethnic heritage and instilling ethnic pride; (2) preparation for bias, or teaching children about racism and preparing them to face discrimination; (3) promotion of mistrust, or warning children about the need to distance themselves from other racial groups; and (4) egalitarianism, or emphasizing the similarities between and equality of all races (Hughes et al. 2006). One consideration to take into account from a developmental perspective is that children’s level of cognitive development impacts how they interpret messages about race. This chapter draws a link between parental ethnic-racial socialization and extends this body of work to school settings, with a focus on teachers. The ideologies of colorblindness and color-consciousness are discussed throughout