农业贸易改革——有利于澳大利亚大面积农业的改革措施

澳大利亚的农业高度依赖于世界市场。澳大利亚相当部分的农产品是用于出口的，其农产品价格时刻反映世界市场的价格。全球农业政策的根本改革将会使世界市场的扭曲减少，在世界范围内提高农产品价格并为澳大利亚农民提供更多的贸易机会。虽然WTO多哈回合中农业谈判的进展日渐缓慢，但谈判仍给扭曲农业贸易的根本性的政策改革提供了机会。由于澳大利亚的农业高度依赖于世界市场，这样的改革将会为澳大利亚的农民带来经济利益。例如凯恩斯集团所提出的改革会使农产品市场的扭曲减少，澳大利亚农业的门槛价格提高，农民的现金收入增加及土地价格上涨。译者单位：厦门大学国际经济与贸易系(361005

Updating an input-output table for use in policy analysis

The long lag in the publication of input–output tables is one of the central constraints in applied general equilibrium analysis. Model builders often use out‐dated databases leading to analyses that are inappropriate for the policy questions being addressed. This occurs particularly when there exists a significant structural change in the economy. We discuss the updating of an input–output table of the Philippines by simulation technique. A detailed computable general equilibrium model of the Philippine economy with comparative static and forecasting capabilities is utilised. The data are drawn from known percentage changes of macroeconomic variables such as those in the national accounts and structural variables such as employment and output by industry

Agricultural Trade Liberalization: Effects on developing countries' output, incomes and trade

During the last decade there has been a substantial increase in trade in agricultural products between developing countries. Between 1990 and 1998, the value of agricultural trade between developing countries has been growing at about 7 per cent per year. With this increasing importance of south-south trade, the barriers to such trade are becoming increasingly important to the growth prospects for developing countries. However the opportunity to reduce these barriers may not be realised because under the WTO, trade is liberalised through negotiations for the lowering of bound tariffs that are in most cases much higher than the applied tariffs in developing countries. Thus the extent of liberalisation is dependent upon the rate by which the bound tariffs are cut and whether such reductions lower the applied tariffs. This paper explores scenarios that reflect some possible outcomes in the WTO negotiations and assesses its implications on developing countries’ output, incomes and trade. A more realistic approach in modelling the scenarios is to take account of the binding overhang or “water in the tariff”. The findings show that developing countries have much to gain from further trade liberalisation. However, it is necessary that negotiations for further agricultural reforms should be more ambitious for benefits to be realised. More importantly, wider participation in the reform process and broad commodity coverage is required to ensure that the benefits are maximised

Estimation of Factor Demand and Substitution in the Australian Pig Industry: A Dual Approach

This study seeks to estimate the rate by which inputs in Australian pig production are substituted for one another when prices change. It employs a dual approach to response analysis. Using cost shares of inputs and input price indexes for the period 1977-78 to 1990-91, a set of equations derived from a transcendental logarithmic function is estimated with symmetry and homogeneity constraints imposed. The results indicate that, with the exception of the demand for feed which is a vital production input, pig producers are very responsive to own price changes. The estimated elasticities generally differ in magnitude from similar studies of the Australian agricultural sector, and suggest that, at a lower level of aggregation, farmers are more flexible in changing input mix

Structural Change in Philippine Agriculture: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Analysis of changes in the industrial composition of economic activity (structural change) is important for informed policy making. Such analysis can best be undertaken using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. CGE models recognize links among industries arising from their roles as consumers of one another's products and from their competition for the economy's resources. In this paper, a detailed CGE model of the Philippines is employed to assess structural and technological change in Philippine agriculture during the period 1985 to 1992. The model estimates of technological change and other unobservable variables are used to explain structural change in Philipine agriculture and other sectors of the Philippine economy. The macroeconomic effects of this change are also discussed

Trade flows between Australia and China: An opportunity for a free trade agreement

The seemingly high degree of trade complementarity between Australia and China indicates that freer trade between these two countries is likely to lead to mutual trade gains. In this paper, this complementarity was assessed based on the use of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) indices. It is likely that trade gains could be achieved by Australia and China by adopting a bilateral free trade agreement. General equilibrium models – such as ABARE’s global trade and environment model (GTEM) – have been used by many researchers to quantify the economic effects of free trade agreements in recent times. This paper discusses some of the key issues involved in analysing the economic benefits of an Australia–China free trade agreement using GTEM

Developing an input-output table of China for detailed agricultural policy analysis

China is a large country with a rapidly growing economy. Although the share of the agricultural sector in the Chinese economy is declining, agriculture remains an important sector, employing hundreds of millions of people. Given the sheer size of Chinese agriculture, developments in domestic agriculture have major impacts both in China and also in the rest of the world, with potential for large impacts on global agricultural markets. With the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, and the pursuit of regional and bilateral trade deals both by China and trading partners, the ability to provide an accurate assessment of the potential impact of reforms is imperative. Due to the key role of agriculture and its linkages with the rest of the Chinese economy, a general equilibrium (GE) approach is frequently chosen for this type of assessment. While this approach is appropriate, the accuracy of the results relies on the validity of the underlying data – especially the input-output (IO) tables. Inaccuracies and misrepresentation in the input-output table can bias the results and lead to misleading or incorrect policy conclusions. For China, the lack of a detailed representation of important agricultural sectors in published input-output tables prevents a more targeted and relevant analysis of agricultural policy change. In this paper, we build an alternate IO table with representations of important agricultural sectors for China. We then evaluate the IO table by comparing results from a simple economic impact analysis using the new data set and another Chinese IO table from a commonly used global GE database. This evaluation shows that discrepancies in representation of agricultural sector in the IO table can bias the results