Causal Inference by Stochastic Complexity

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion is not computable. We hence propose to do causal inference by stochastic complexity. That is, we propose to approximate Kolmogorov complexity via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, using a score that is mini-max optimal with regard to the model class under consideration. This means that even in an adversarial setting, such as when the true distribution is not in this class, we still obtain the optimal encoding for the data relative to the class. We instantiate this framework, which we call CISC, for pairs of univariate discrete variables, using the class of multinomial distributions. Experiments show that CISC is highly accurate on synthetic, benchmark, as well as real-world data, outperforming the state of the art by a margin, and scales extremely well with regard to sample and domain sizes

Developing conservation governance strategies: holistic management of protected areas in Nepal

The Buffer Zone (BZ) concept has been introduced in Nepal as a key component of the national biodiversity conservation strategy to mitigate the impacts of protected areas on local communities, and thereby reduce adverse impacts of local people on protected areas. Unlike traditional Buffer Zone programmes which are mostly limited to creating a protective layer and/or distributing economic benefits to local people, the Buffer Zone management approach in Nepal integrates livelihoods and conservation issues and their linkages in a more holistic and balanced manner. The programme has been successful in establishing a network of community institutions and in mobilising large numbers of local communities in conservation and community development. The research findings clearly indicate that the current Buffer Zone management approach based on park revenue sharing for community development has been successful in developing positive attitudes among local people towards protected areas. There is also evidence of improvement in the condition of forests and biodiversity in the Buffer Zone and a decrease in pressure inside the protected areas for basic forestry resources. The BZ communities also feel empowered by the Buffer Zone management programme. These outputs suggest that if properly designed, the Buffer Zone management programme can achieve both conservation and development objectives ensuring the long-term integrity of the protected areas. At the same time, however, the research has also revealed that the existing incentives and institutional arrangements adopted in the Buffer Zone management programme were necessary but not sufficient to address present and potential challenges in Chitwan National Park. There is a need to use additional instruments to demonstrate Buffer Zone management as a viable conservation governance strategy to expand conservation into the areas beyond park boundaries ensuring greater stability of the Park. Any park management strategy seeking to make tangible impacts on conservation, livelihood and governance should have five elements, namely; incentive, empowerment, education, enforcement and integration (IEEEI); and appropriate policy and institutional frameworks to implement them in an integrated way. If issues such as inclusion, equity, empowerment and integration are properly incorporated into the policies and programmes of the Buffer Zone management, the Buffer Zone management strategy adopted in Chitwan could be promoted as a viable model for the sustainable management of protected areas situated in a human dominated landscape

Roles of Capabilities and Leader Characteristics in SME Digital Innovation

Digital technology (viewed as the combination of information, computing, communication, and connectivity technology) is impacting on the marketplaces that SMEs operate in. Yet, little is understood about how these businesses are adapting to, and adopting, digital technologies and creating digital innovation. Technology can be viewed as an opportunity for SMEs through which to engage in competitive behaviour, cost reduction, audience extension and intelligence gathering. European Commission recognises the SMEs form the backbone of the European economy Qualitative data were gathered from 45 interviews with SME leaders across four European countries and 5 industry sectors. This paper reports on the findings from a research project investigating digital preparedness of European SMEs and specifically the characteristics and capabilities of SME leaders in adopting digital innovation. Insight is outlined through the scope of the research which integrates different countries, sizes of SMEs and industry sectors to provide an holistic view of European SME leader perceptions. General consensus was evident as to the characteristics and capabilities required to create digital innovation in a competitive environment and a tentative framework has been created. This paper contributes to scholarship by providing a more comprehensive view of current European perceptions by SME practitioners concerning the profile of an SME leader undertaking digital innovation. Management implications include that any evaluation of SME digital innovation preparedness should look beyond capabilities and skills sets and include intangible aspects of character such as leaders’ attitudes towards technologies.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech

The impact of culture on own-label brands performance

The performance of own-label brands varies enormously across countries, with high penetration in Western countries but limited success in Eastern countries. The common explanations for this state are related to market factors such as the development of big retailer chains or the power balance between retailers and manufacturers. However, the role of culture has been overlooked to explain this situation. This study aims to provide insights into the impact of culture on own-label brands performance. This thesis formulates and tests a conceptual framework linking Hofstede s (1980, 2001) five cultural dimensions (power distance, individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance & long-term orientation) to retail market development (size of the retail market) and own-label brands performance, controlling for three socio-economic variables: GDP per capita, Gini index and Government expenditure. Relevant literature is reviewed in order to develop hypotheses. The conceptual model is then tested upon a sample of 65 countries, utilising data collected via secondary sources and the application of structural equation modelling techniques. The results of this study indicate that three out of five Hofstede s cultural dimensions, power distance, individualism and uncertainty avoidance, have a significant impact on retail market development, which in turn, significantly influences own-label brands performance. Moreover, results show that individualism and long-term orientation have a significant direct impact on own-label brands performance. Past studies on this domain are restricted to one or two cultural dimensions and generally involve a limited number of countries. This research therefore pioneers in investigating the five national cultural dimensions across a high number of nations. The findings are important for retailers and may help them to adapt their own-label strategy according to the culture of the nation they are operating in

MODELLING SNOWMELT INFILTRATION PROCESSES IN SEASONALLY FROZEN GROUND

In cold regions, freezing and thawing of the soil governs soil hydraulic properties that shape the surface and subsurface hydrological processes. The partitioning of snowmelt into infiltration and runoff has important implications for integrated water resource management and flood risk. However, there is an inadequate representation of the snowmelt infiltration into frozen soils in most land-surface and hydrological models, creating the need for improved models and methods. In this research, we test the Frozen Soil Infiltration Model, FroSIn, which is a novel algorithm for infiltration into the frozen soils. The model is applied in a simple configuration to reproduce observations from field sites in the Canadian prairies, specifically St Denis and Brightwater Creek in Saskatchewan, Canada. We demonstrate the limitations of conventional approaches to simulate infiltration in frozen soils, which systematically over-predict runoff and under predict infiltration. The findings show that FroSIn enables models to predict more reasonable infiltration volumes in frozen soils, and also better represent how infiltration-runoff partitioning is impacted by antecedent soil water content

Causal Inference by Stochastic Complexity

The algorithmic Markov condition states that the most likely causal direction between two random variables X and Y can be identified as that direction with the lowest Kolmogorov complexity. Due to the halting problem, however, this notion is not computable. We hence propose to do causal inference by stochastic complexity. That is, we propose to approximate Kolmogorov complexity via the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principle, using a score that is mini-max optimal with regard to the model class under consideration. This means that even in an adversarial setting, such as when the true distribution is not in this class, we still obtain the optimal encoding for the data relative to the class. We instantiate this framework, which we call CISC, for pairs of univariate discrete variables, using the class of multinomial distributions. Experiments show that CISC is highly accurate on synthetic, benchmark, as well as real-world data, outperforming the state of the art by a margin, and scales extremely well with regard to sample and domain sizes

Screening of Actinomycetes from Soil for Antibacterial Activity

Actinomycetes are Gram positive, free living saprophytes which are distributed in soil as one of the major populations and are primary source of antibiotics. This study was carried out with a quest to isolate actinomycetes from soil samples of different places and assess their antibacterial activity. Isolation of actinomycetes was carried out by serial dilution of soil sample followed by spread plate method. The antimicrobial extract was extracted using ethyl acetate. Assessment of antimicrobial activity was performed by using Agar cup plate assay against test organisms (Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Salmonella typhi, Salmonella paratyphi, Bacillus subtilis, Staphylococcus aureus). Antibacterial activity was tested against Methicillin Sensitive Staphylococcus aureus and Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in the isolates having effective inhibitory activity against Staphylococcus aureus. From 15 soil samples of 12 different locations, 121 actinomycetes isolates were isolated. Among them, 58 (47.9%) isolates were inhibitory against at least 1 test organism in primary screening, of which 22 isolates effective against more than 1 test organism was chosen for secondary screening. Out of them, 8 were inhibitory against 2 test organisms while 14 were inhibitory against 3 test organisms. Staphylococcus aureus was found to be the most susceptible test organism with its susceptibility against 12 actinomycetes isolates. Among 12 isolates effective against Staphylococcus aureus, 10 were found to have an inhibitory effect against Methicillin Susceptible Staphylococcus aureus while 6 were found to have inhibitory effect against Methicillin Resistant Staphylococcus aureus strain. The findings of this study highlight the inhibitory potential of actinomycetes and the need for further investigation for obtaining novel antimicrobial agents from actinomycetes from various unexplored areas

Failure to initiate medicine in newly diagnosed hypertensives despite sustained high blood pressure in Nepal: an under-discussed dimension of non-adherence

Hypertension is growing challenge in Nepalese community which is evident from the growing concern from all sectors. Non-adherence to hypertensive medication pose challenge as patients are reluctant to start drug despite receiving physician’s advice. Continuing drug life-long once started, is a fear factor that needs dealing urgently