Estimating the Power of Indirect Comparisons: A Simulation Study

Indirect comparisons are becoming increasingly popular for evaluating medical treatments that have not been compared head-to-head in randomized clinical trials (RCTs). While indirect methods have grown in popularity and acceptance, little is known about the fragility of confidence interval estimations and hypothesis testing relying on this method.We present the findings of a simulation study that examined the fragility of indirect confidence interval estimation and hypothesis testing relying on the adjusted indirect method.Our results suggest that, for the settings considered in this study, indirect confidence interval estimation suffers from under-coverage while indirect hypothesis testing suffers from low power in the presence of moderate to large between-study heterogeneity. In addition, the risk of overestimation is large when the indirect comparison of interest relies on just one trial for one of the two direct comparisons.Indirect comparisons typically suffer from low power. The risk of imprecision is increased when comparisons are unbalanced

Illiteracy, low educational status, and cardiovascular mortality in India

Background: Influence of education, a marker of SES, on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality has not been evaluated in low-income countries. To determine influence of education on CVD mortality a cohort study was performed in India. Methods: 148,173 individuals aged ≥ 35 years were recruited in Mumbai during 1991-1997 and followed to ascertain vital status during 1997-2003. Subjects were divided according to educational status into one of the five groups: illiterate, primary school ( ≦ 5 years of formal education), middle school (6-8 years), secondary school (9-10 years) and college (> 10 years). Multivariate analyses using Cox proportional hazard model was performed an

The Cosmological Constant

This is a review of the physics and cosmology of the cosmological constant. Focusing on recent developments, I present a pedagogical overview of cosmology in the presence of a cosmological constant, observational constraints on its magnitude, and the physics of a small (and potentially nonzero) vacuum energy.Comment: 50 pages. Submitted to Living Reviews in Relativity (http://www.livingreviews.org/), December 199

Identifying patient preferences for communicating risk estimates: A descriptive pilot study

BACKGROUND: Patients increasingly seek more active involvement in health care decisions, but little is known about how to communicate complex risk information to patients. The objective of this study was to elicit patient preferences for the presentation and framing of complex risk information. METHOD: To accomplish this, eight focus group discussions and 15 one-on-one interviews were conducted, where women were presented with risk data in a variety of different graphical formats, metrics, and time horizons. Risk data were based on a hypothetical woman's risk for coronary heart disease, hip fracture, and breast cancer, with and without hormone replacement therapy. Participants' preferences were assessed using likert scales, ranking, and abstractions of focus group discussions. RESULTS: Forty peri- and postmenopausal women were recruited through hospital fliers (n = 25) and a community health fair (n = 15). Mean age was 51 years, 50% were non-Caucasian, and all had completed high school. Bar graphs were preferred by 83% of participants over line graphs, thermometer graphs, 100 representative faces, and survival curves. Lifetime risk estimates were preferred over 10 or 20-year horizons, and absolute risks were preferred over relative risks and number needed to treat. CONCLUSION: Although there are many different formats for presenting and framing risk information, simple bar charts depicting absolute lifetime risk were rated and ranked highest overall for patient preferences for format

Information Transmission in Cercal Giant Interneurons Is Unaffected by Axonal Conduction Noise

What are the fundamental constraints on the precision and accuracy with which nervous systems can process information? One constraint must reflect the intrinsic “noisiness” of the mechanisms that transmit information between nerve cells. Most neurons transmit information through the probabilistic generation and propagation of spikes along axons, and recent modeling studies suggest that noise from spike propagation might pose a significant constraint on the rate at which information could be transmitted between neurons. However, the magnitude and functional significance of this noise source in actual cells remains poorly understood. We measured variability in conduction time along the axons of identified neurons in the cercal sensory system of the cricket Acheta domesticus, and used information theory to calculate the effects of this variability on sensory coding. We found that the variability in spike propagation speed is not large enough to constrain the accuracy of neural encoding in this system

The effects of multi-domain versus single-domain cognitive training in non-demented older people: a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Whether healthy older people can benefit from cognitive training (CogTr) remains controversial. This study explored the benefits of CogTr in community dwelling, healthy, older adults and compared the effects of single-domain with multi-domain CogTr interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A randomized, controlled, 3-month trial of CogTr with double-blind assessments at baseline and immediate, 6-month and 12-month follow-up after training completion was conducted. A total of 270 healthy Chinese older people, 65 to 75 years old, were recruited from the Ganquan-area community in Shanghai. Participants were randomly assigned to three groups: multi-domain CogTr, single-domain CogTr, and a wait-list control group. Twenty-four sessions of CogTr were administrated to the intervention groups over a three-month period. Six months later, three booster training sessions were offered to 60% of the initial training participants. The Repeatable Battery for the Assessment of Neuropsychological Status (RBANS, Form A), the Color Word Stroop test (CWST), the Visual Reasoning test and the Trail Making test (TMT) were used to assess cognitive function.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Multi-domain CogTr produced statistically significant training effects on RBANS, visual reasoning, and immediate and delayed memory, while single-domain CogTr showed training effects on RBANS, visual reasoning, word interference, and visuospatial/constructional score (all <it>P </it>< 0.05). At the 12-month posttest, the multi-domain CogTr showed training effects on RBANS, delayed memory and visual reasoning, while single-domain CogTr only showed effects on word interference. Booster training resulted in effects on RBANS, visual reasoning, time of trail making test, and visuospatial/constructional index score.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Cognitive training can improve memory, visual reasoning, visuospatial construction, attention and neuropsychological status in community-living older people and can help maintain their functioning over time. Multi-domain CogTr enhanced memory proficiency, while single-domain CogTr augmented visuospatial/constructional and attention abilities. Multi-domain CogTr had more advantages in training effect maintenance.</p> <p>Clinical Trial Registration</p> <p>Chinese Clinical Trial Registry. Registration number: ChiCTR-TRC-09000732.</p

Conflicting Views on Chemical Carcinogenesis Arising from the Design and Evaluation of Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies

Conflicting views have been expressed frequently on assessments of human cancer risk of environmental agents based on animal carcinogenicity data; this is primarily because of uncertainties associated with extrapolations of toxicologic findings from studies in experimental animals to human circumstances. Underlying these uncertainties are issues related to how experiments are designed, how rigorously hypotheses are tested, and to what extent assertions extend beyond actual findings. National and international health agencies regard carcinogenicity findings in well-conducted experimental animal studies as evidence of potential carcinogenic risk to humans. Controversies arise when both positive and negative carcinogenicity data exist for a specific agent or when incomplete mechanistic data suggest a possible species difference in response. Issues of experimental design and evaluation that might contribute to disparate results are addressed in this article. To serve as reliable sources of data for the evaluation of the carcinogenic potential of environmental agents, experimental studies must include a) animal models that are sensitive to the end points under investigation; b) detailed characterization of the agent and the administered doses; c) challenging doses and durations of exposure (at least 2 years for rats and mice); d) sufficient numbers of animals per dose group to be capable of detecting a true effect; e) multiple dose groups to allow characterization of dose–response relationships, f) complete and peer-reviewed histopathologic evaluations; and g) pairwise comparisons and analyses of trends based on survival-adjusted tumor incidence. Pharmacokinetic models and mechanistic hypotheses may provide insights into the biological behavior of the agent; however, they must be adequately tested before being used to evaluate human cancer risk

Carbon nanotubes as excitonic insulators

Fifty years ago Walter Kohn speculated that a zero-gap semiconductor might be unstable against the spontaneous generation of excitons-electron-hole pairs bound together by Coulomb attraction. The reconstructed ground state would then open a gap breaking the symmetry of the underlying lattice, a genuine consequence of electronic correlations. Here we show that this excitonic insulator is realized in zero-gap carbon nanotubes by performing first-principles calculations through many-body perturbation theory as well as quantum Monte Carlo. The excitonic order modulates the charge between the two carbon sublattices opening an experimentally observable gap, which scales as the inverse of the tube radius and weakly depends on the axial magnetic field. Our findings call into question the Luttinger liquid paradigm for nanotubes and provide tests to experimentally discriminate between excitonic and Mott insulators

Accessing a Hidden Conformation of the Maltose Binding Protein Using Accelerated Molecular Dynamics

Periplasmic binding proteins (PBPs) are a large family of molecular transporters that play a key role in nutrient uptake and chemotaxis in Gram-negative bacteria. All PBPs have characteristic two-domain architecture with a central interdomain ligand-binding cleft. Upon binding to their respective ligands, PBPs undergo a large conformational change that effectively closes the binding cleft. This conformational change is traditionally viewed as a ligand induced-fit process; however, the intrinsic dynamics of the protein may also be crucial for ligand recognition. Recent NMR paramagnetic relaxation enhancement (PRE) experiments have shown that the maltose binding protein (MBP) - a prototypical member of the PBP superfamily - exists in a rapidly exchanging (ns to µs regime) mixture comprising an open state (approx 95%), and a minor partially closed state (approx 5%). Here we describe accelerated MD simulations that provide a detailed picture of the transition between the open and partially closed states, and confirm the existence of a dynamical equilibrium between these two states in apo MBP. We find that a flexible part of the protein called the balancing interface motif (residues 175–184) is displaced during the transformation. Continuum electrostatic calculations indicate that the repacking of non-polar residues near the hinge region plays an important role in driving the conformational change. Oscillations between open and partially closed states create variations in the shape and size of the binding site. The study provides a detailed description of the conformational space available to ligand-free MBP, and has implications for understanding ligand recognition and allostery in related proteins