Scenarier för klimatpåverkan från matkonsumtionen 2050

Denna rapport är framtagen inom ramen för Mistra Urban Futures-projektet WISE - Well-being In Sustainable cities, och mer specifikt inom delprojektet Klimatomställning Göteborg: potentialer och livskvalitetseffekter. Göteborgarnas klimatpåverkan idag och potentialer för framtiden beräknas avseende boende, transporter, mat, etc. Detta kan ge en samlad bild av möjligheterna att nå klimatmålen. En livskvalitetskoppling är att denna överblick kan ge underlag för en samhällsdiskussion om vilka vägar för att uppnå klimatmålen som människor föredrar. Syftet med denna underlagsrapport är att beräkna potentialer för utsläppsminskningar till 2050 från svenskarnas matkonsumtion. Beräkningar har gjorts för år 2006, samt för nio alternativa scenarier för 2050

Land-use competition and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in a climate change mitigation perspective

Productive land for food production, bioenergy, or preservation of nature is a limited resource. Climate change mitigation puts additional pressure on land via higher demand for bioenergy to replace fossil fuels and via restrictions on deforestation—two processes that limit the availability of land for food produc- tion, and may thus also raise food prices. Methane and nitrous oxide emis- sions from agriculture may also need to be reduced to efficiently mitigate climate change. This thesis deals with this in three ways.In papers I–II, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions from food production for current diets and expected future developments, together with alternative di- etary developments and potential technical improvements in the agricultural sec- tor. Costs and possibilities for reaching climate goals are analyzed for the differ- ent diets. The results indicate that a phase out of ruminant products would cut mitigation cost in half, for staying below a 2◦C limit, and it may be necessary if the climate sensitivity is high.In papers III–IV, a conceptual and transparent partial equilibrium model of global land-use competition is developed, analyzed and applied. The model is to a large degree analytically explored and price differentials between crops are derived. The model is subjected to a detailed characterization of its mechanisms and parameters that are critical to the results. We conclude that the total amount of productive agricultural area and bioenergy yields are of crucial importance to the price impacts from large-scale introduction of bioenergy. We also show how limiting bioenergy production to marginal land could be difficult to implement in practice.In paper V, we use two established indicators for poverty and sensitivity to food-price changes to capture peoples’ vulnerability to rising food-prices in four Sub-Sahara African countries/regions. In contrast to previous studies, we include all food products instead of just one or a few main staples. We found that the vast majority of people are net consumers of food and that the inclusion of more than main staples increases their net position as consumers and thus vulnerability to high food prices

Land-use competition and agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in a climate change mitigation perspective

Productive land for food production, bioenergy, or preservation of nature is a limited resource. Climate change mitigation puts additional pressure on land via higher demand for bioenergy to replace fossil fuels and via restrictions on deforestation—two processes that limit the availability of land for food produc- tion, and may thus also raise food prices. Methane and nitrous oxide emis- sions from agriculture may also need to be reduced to efficiently mitigate climate change. This thesis deals with this in three ways.In papers I–II, we estimate greenhouse gas emissions from food production for current diets and expected future developments, together with alternative di- etary developments and potential technical improvements in the agricultural sec- tor. Costs and possibilities for reaching climate goals are analyzed for the differ- ent diets. The results indicate that a phase out of ruminant products would cut mitigation cost in half, for staying below a 2◦C limit, and it may be necessary if the climate sensitivity is high.In papers III–IV, a conceptual and transparent partial equilibrium model of global land-use competition is developed, analyzed and applied. The model is to a large degree analytically explored and price differentials between crops are derived. The model is subjected to a detailed characterization of its mechanisms and parameters that are critical to the results. We conclude that the total amount of productive agricultural area and bioenergy yields are of crucial importance to the price impacts from large-scale introduction of bioenergy. We also show how limiting bioenergy production to marginal land could be difficult to implement in practice.In paper V, we use two established indicators for poverty and sensitivity to food-price changes to capture peoples’ vulnerability to rising food-prices in four Sub-Sahara African countries/regions. In contrast to previous studies, we include all food products instead of just one or a few main staples. We found that the vast majority of people are net consumers of food and that the inclusion of more than main staples increases their net position as consumers and thus vulnerability to high food prices

On Food Price Implications from Expanded Bioenergy Production

Bioenergy has been put forward as a solution to energy security and at the same time to climate change. It is, however, dependent on productive agricultural land, which is a limited resource. Introduction of bioenergy on a large scale will thus compete with food production and natural forests for productive land, a competition expected to affect food prices.In this thesis I focus on poverty nourishment issues related to changing food prices and on the mechanisms of land-use competition and how they affect food prices. In the first paper we use two established indicators for poverty and sensitivity to food-price changes, to capture peoples\u27 vulnerability to rising food-prices, in four Sub-Sahara African countries/regions. In contrast to previous studies, we include all food products instead of just one or a few main staples. We found that the vast majority of people are net consumers of food and that the inclusion of more than main staples increases their net position as consumers and thus vulnerability to high food prices. In paper two and three a conceptual and transparent partial equilibrium model of global land-use competition is developed, analyzed and applied. The model is to a large degree analytically explored and price differentials between crops are derived. The model is subjected to a detailed characterization of its mechanisms and parameters in which parameters that are critical to results and conclusions from the model are detected and their impacts depicted. We conclude that the total amount of productive agricultural area is of crucial importance to the price impacts from large-scale introduction of bioenergy. Yields of bioenergy crops are also important since they determine the amount of land required to produce the bioenergy

On Food Price Implications from Expanded Bioenergy Production

Bioenergy has been put forward as a solution to energy security and at the same time to climate change. It is, however, dependent on productive agricultural land, which is a limited resource. Introduction of bioenergy on a large scale will thus compete with food production and natural forests for productive land, a competition expected to affect food prices.In this thesis I focus on poverty nourishment issues related to changing food prices and on the mechanisms of land-use competition and how they affect food prices. In the first paper we use two established indicators for poverty and sensitivity to food-price changes, to capture peoples\u27 vulnerability to rising food-prices, in four Sub-Sahara African countries/regions. In contrast to previous studies, we include all food products instead of just one or a few main staples. We found that the vast majority of people are net consumers of food and that the inclusion of more than main staples increases their net position as consumers and thus vulnerability to high food prices. In paper two and three a conceptual and transparent partial equilibrium model of global land-use competition is developed, analyzed and applied. The model is to a large degree analytically explored and price differentials between crops are derived. The model is subjected to a detailed characterization of its mechanisms and parameters in which parameters that are critical to results and conclusions from the model are detected and their impacts depicted. We conclude that the total amount of productive agricultural area is of crucial importance to the price impacts from large-scale introduction of bioenergy. Yields of bioenergy crops are also important since they determine the amount of land required to produce the bioenergy

A conceptual partial equilibrium model of global agricultural land use

We introduce a conceptual partial equilibrium model of global agricultural land use, based on heterogenous land quality--an area that has received less theoretical attention than location theory. The model is based on maximization of land rent at each parcel through choice of crop and input intensity. Mechanisms of land rent and land-use competition are illustrated in a transparent way, which can be used for e.g. policy testing and for improved understanding of results from larger land-use models. A strength with this approach is that the model to a large extent can be analytically explored. We show how different crops are optimally distributed on land according to their respective area-dependent cost, i.e. costs paid per area regardless of yield. Crops with high such costs are grown on more productive land and crops with low such costs are grown on less productive land, in equilibrium. The equilibrium solution of the model is unique. Further we show how prices are connected between crops that compete for land

Why large-scale bioenergy production on marginal land is unfeasible: A conceptual partial equilibrium analysis

A transparent and conceptual partial equilibrium model of global land use is used to explore long-term effects of large-scale introduction of bioenergy, under different policy cases. The transparency of the model, and the consideration of clear-cut policies, provides a clear picture of how main mechanisms of land-use competition work, and how they influence the food and bioenergy systems. The model is subjected to a detailed characterization, in which parameters critical to the results and conclusions are detected and their impacts depicted. A large-scale introduction of bioenergy would raise food prices in all cases/scenarios investigated, and relative price increases of extensively produced crops would be at least twice as high as compared to intensively produced crops. Banning production of bioenergy from the most productive land (limiting production to “marginal land”) would reduce this price impact. However, we show that bioenergy is unlikely to ever be produced on any commercial scale only on land of low productivity. The economic incentives would be strong for owners of more productive land to grow bioenergy anyway and out-compete the more costly production on low yielding land. Large-scale deforestation would become attractive in response to increased bioenergy demand, especially for extensive production systems such as grazing

A conceptual partial equilibrium model of global agricultural land use

We introduce a conceptual partial equilibrium model of global agricultural land use, based on heterogenous land quality--an area that has received less theoretical attention than location theory. The model is based on maximization of land rent at each parcel through choice of crop and input intensity. Mechanisms of land rent and land-use competition are illustrated in a transparent way, which can be used for e.g. policy testing and for improved understanding of results from larger land-use models. A strength with this approach is that the model to a large extent can be analytically explored. We show how different crops are optimally distributed on land according to their respective area-dependent cost, i.e. costs paid per area regardless of yield. Crops with high such costs are grown on more productive land and crops with low such costs are grown on less productive land, in equilibrium. The equilibrium solution of the model is unique. Further we show how prices are connected between crops that compete for land