Bayesian hierarchical modeling of longitudinal glaucomatous visual fields using a two-stage approach

The Bayesian approach has become increasingly popular because it allows to fit quite complex models to data via Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. However, it is also recognized nowadays that Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling can become computationally prohibitive when applied to a large data set. We encountered serious computational difficulties when fitting an hierarchical model to longitudinal glaucoma data of patients who participate in an ongoing Dutch study. To overcome this problem, we applied and extended a recently proposed two-stage approach to model these data. Glaucoma is one of the leading causes of blindness in the world. In order to detect deterioration at an early stage, a model for predicting visual fields (VFs) in time is needed. Hence, the true underlying VF progression can be determined, and treatment strategies can then be optimized to prevent further VF loss. Because we were unable to fit these data with the classical one-stage approach upon which the current popular Bayesian software is based, we made use of the two-stage Bayesian approach. The considered hierarchical longitudinal model involves estimating a large number of random effects and deals with censoring and high measurement variability. In addition, we extended the approach with tools for model evaluation. Copyrigh

Contributions of individual reactive biogenic volatile organic compounds to organic nitrates above a mixed forest

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) can react in the atmosphere to form organic nitrates, which serve as $\text{NO}_{x} (\text{NO} + \text{NO}_{2})$ reservoirs, impacting ozone and secondary organic aerosol production, the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, and nitrogen availability to ecosystems. To examine the contributions of biogenic emissions and the formation and fate of organic nitrates in a forest environment, we simulated the oxidation of 57 individual BVOCs emitted from a rural mixed forest in northern Michigan. Key BVOC-oxidant reactions were identified for future laboratory and field investigations into reaction rate constants, yields, and speciation of oxidation products. Of the total simulated organic nitrates, monoterpenes contributed ~70% in the early morning at ~12 m above the forest canopy when isoprene emissions were low. In the afternoon, when vertical mixing and isoprene nitrate production were highest, the simulated contribution of isoprene-derived organic nitrates was greater than 90% at all altitudes, with the concentration of secondary isoprene nitrates increasing with altitude. Notably, reaction of isoprene with $\text{NO}_{3}$ leading to isoprene nitrate formation was found to be significant (~8% of primary organic nitrate production) during the daytime, and monoterpene reactions with $\text{NO}_{3}$ were simulated to comprise up to ~83% of primary organic nitrate production at night. Lastly, forest succession, wherein aspen trees are being replaced by pine and maple trees, was predicted to lead to increased afternoon concentrations of monoterpene-derived organic nitrates. This further underscores the need to understand the formation and fate of these species, which have different chemical pathways and oxidation products compared to isoprene-derived organic nitrates and can lead to secondary organic aerosol formation

Numerical simulations of the Warm-Hot Intergalactic Medium

In this paper we review the current predictions of numerical simulations for the origin and observability of the warm hot intergalactic medium (WHIM), the diffuse gas that contains up to 50 per cent of the baryons at z~0. During structure formation, gravitational accretion shocks emerging from collapsing regions gradually heat the intergalactic medium (IGM) to temperatures in the range T~10^5-10^7 K. The WHIM is predicted to radiate most of its energy in the ultraviolet (UV) and X-ray bands and to contribute a significant fraction of the soft X-ray background emission. While O VI and C IV absorption systems arising in the cooler fraction of the WHIM with T~10^5-10^5.5 K are seen in FUSE and HST observations, models agree that current X-ray telescopes such as Chandra and XMM-Newton do not have enough sensitivity to detect the hotter WHIM. However, future missions such as Constellation-X and XEUS might be able to detect both emission lines and absorption systems from highly ionised atoms such as O VII, O VIII and Fe XVII.Comment: 18 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews, special issue "Clusters of galaxies: beyond the thermal view", Editor J.S. Kaastra, Chapter 14; work done by an international team at the International Space Science Institute (ISSI), Bern, organised by J.S. Kaastra, A.M. Bykov, S. Schindler & J.A.M. Bleeke

Relationship between molecular pathogen detection and clinical disease in febrile children across Europe:a multicentre, prospective observational study

Background: The PERFORM study aimed to understand causes of febrile childhood illness by comparing molecular pathogen detection with current clinical practice. Methods: Febrile children and controls were recruited on presentation to hospital in 9 European countries 2016–2020. Each child was assigned a standardized diagnostic category based on retrospective review of local clinical and microbiological data. Subsequently, centralised molecular tests (CMTs) for 19 respiratory and 27 blood pathogens were performed. Findings: Of 4611 febrile children, 643 (14%) were classified as definite bacterial infection (DB), 491 (11%) as definite viral infection (DV), and 3477 (75%) had uncertain aetiology. 1061 controls without infection were recruited. CMTs detected blood bacteria more frequently in DB than DV cases for N. meningitidis (OR: 3.37, 95% CI: 1.92–5.99), S. pneumoniae (OR: 3.89, 95% CI: 2.07–7.59), Group A streptococcus (OR 2.73, 95% CI 1.13–6.09) and E. coli (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.02–6.71). Respiratory viruses were more common in febrile children than controls, but only influenza A (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.11–0.46), influenza B (OR 0.12, 95% CI 0.02–0.37) and RSV (OR 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06–0.36) were less common in DB than DV cases. Of 16 blood viruses, enterovirus (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.23–0.72) and EBV (OR 0.71, 95% CI 0.56–0.90) were detected less often in DB than DV cases. Combined local diagnostics and CMTs respectively detected blood viruses and respiratory viruses in 360 (56%) and 161 (25%) of DB cases, and virus detection ruled-out bacterial infection poorly, with predictive values of 0.64 and 0.68 respectively. Interpretation: Most febrile children cannot be conclusively defined as having bacterial or viral infection when molecular tests supplement conventional approaches. Viruses are detected in most patients with bacterial infections, and the clinical value of individual pathogen detection in determining treatment is low. New approaches are needed to help determine which febrile children require antibiotics. Funding: EU Horizon 2020 grant 668303.</p

Dust in Supernovae and Supernova Remnants II: Processing and survival

Observations have recently shown that supernovae are efficient dust factories, as predicted for a long time by theoretical models. The rapid evolution of their stellar progenitors combined with their efficiency in precipitating refractory elements from the gas phase into dust grains make supernovae the major potential suppliers of dust in the early Universe, where more conventional sources like Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) stars did not have time to evolve. However, dust yields inferred from observations of young supernovae or derived from models do not reflect the net amount of supernova-condensed dust able to be expelled from the remnants and reach the interstellar medium. The cavity where the dust is formed and initially resides is crossed by the high velocity reverse shock which is generated by the pressure of the circumstellar material shocked by the expanding supernova blast wave. Depending on grain composition and initial size, processing by the reverse shock may lead to substantial dust erosion and even complete destruction. The goal of this review is to present the state of the art about processing and survival of dust inside supernova remnants, in terms of theoretical modelling and comparison to observations

The evolving SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Africa: Insights from rapidly expanding genomic surveillance

INTRODUCTION Investment in Africa over the past year with regard to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) sequencing has led to a massive increase in the number of sequences, which, to date, exceeds 100,000 sequences generated to track the pandemic on the continent. These sequences have profoundly affected how public health officials in Africa have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic. RATIONALE We demonstrate how the first 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Africa have helped monitor the epidemic on the continent, how genomic surveillance expanded over the course of the pandemic, and how we adapted our sequencing methods to deal with an evolving virus. Finally, we also examine how viral lineages have spread across the continent in a phylogeographic framework to gain insights into the underlying temporal and spatial transmission dynamics for several variants of concern (VOCs). RESULTS Our results indicate that the number of countries in Africa that can sequence the virus within their own borders is growing and that this is coupled with a shorter turnaround time from the time of sampling to sequence submission. Ongoing evolution necessitated the continual updating of primer sets, and, as a result, eight primer sets were designed in tandem with viral evolution and used to ensure effective sequencing of the virus. The pandemic unfolded through multiple waves of infection that were each driven by distinct genetic lineages, with B.1-like ancestral strains associated with the first pandemic wave of infections in 2020. Successive waves on the continent were fueled by different VOCs, with Alpha and Beta cocirculating in distinct spatial patterns during the second wave and Delta and Omicron affecting the whole continent during the third and fourth waves, respectively. Phylogeographic reconstruction points toward distinct differences in viral importation and exportation patterns associated with the Alpha, Beta, Delta, and Omicron variants and subvariants, when considering both Africa versus the rest of the world and viral dissemination within the continent. Our epidemiological and phylogenetic inferences therefore underscore the heterogeneous nature of the pandemic on the continent and highlight key insights and challenges, for instance, recognizing the limitations of low testing proportions. We also highlight the early warning capacity that genomic surveillance in Africa has had for the rest of the world with the detection of new lineages and variants, the most recent being the characterization of various Omicron subvariants. CONCLUSION Sustained investment for diagnostics and genomic surveillance in Africa is needed as the virus continues to evolve. This is important not only to help combat SARS-CoV-2 on the continent but also because it can be used as a platform to help address the many emerging and reemerging infectious disease threats in Africa. In particular, capacity building for local sequencing within countries or within the continent should be prioritized because this is generally associated with shorter turnaround times, providing the most benefit to local public health authorities tasked with pandemic response and mitigation and allowing for the fastest reaction to localized outbreaks. These investments are crucial for pandemic preparedness and response and will serve the health of the continent well into the 21st century