6 research outputs found
SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an
updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and
non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without
previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe.
Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using
individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684
individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing
risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood
pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions
in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating
models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor
distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD
mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external
validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European
countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the
derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices
ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk
varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated
10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood
pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and
HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk
countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2%
for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk
countries.
Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to
predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances
the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD
across Europe