215 research outputs found
Forecasting the role of public expenditure in economic growth Using DEA-neural network approach
This paper integrates data envelopment analysis (DEA) and artificial neural networks (ANN) to forecast the role of public expenditure in economic growth in OCDE countries. The results show that this approach is a powerful and appropriate method to forecast this role. DEA method allows us to develop a neutral evaluation, unbiased a priori by any type of criteria, of the proportions in which the goal of productive spending is pursued, for any expenditure. Then we apply ANN to forecast economic growth by using input data taken at frontier. At the end of the DEA-ANN chain, prediction-power tests appear positive: best structures of multiple hidden layers indicate more ability to forecast according to best structures of single hidden layer but the difference between those is not much.DEA method; Economic growth; Public expenditure; Artificial neural network; OCDE countries
Ăquilibres et stabilitĂ© de la corruption dans un modĂšle de croissance : lâeffet de la rĂ©munĂ©ration des politiciens
Lâarticle part du principe suivant : la corruption « politique » renvoie Ă un problĂšme de contrĂŽle du contrĂŽleur (il nây a pas dâinstitutions hiĂ©rarchiques supĂ©rieures au sommet de lâĂtat), ce qui crĂ©e un risque dâĂ©quilibres multiples : soit la corruption reste limitĂ©e, le cadre institutionnel relativement stable, et le contrĂŽle possible, soit, au-delĂ dâun seuil, lâensemble sâĂ©croule, pour crĂ©er une « trappe de corruption » oĂč les difficultĂ©s sâaccumulent. Le modĂšle proposĂ© sâinspire de cette rĂ©flexion, en empruntant une mĂ©thodologie propre Ă lâanalyse Ă©conomique des conflits sociaux. Sur la base dâune endogĂ©nĂ©isation politico-Ă©conomique de la survie Ă©lectorale des gouvernements, il retrouve bien, dans une premiĂšre Ă©tape, un rĂ©sultat dâĂ©quilibres multiples concernant la corruption, lâinstabilitĂ© politique et la croissance (avec la possibilitĂ© dâune « trappe de corruption » comme Ă©quilibre bas). La seconde Ă©tape exploite le cadre prĂ©alablement construit : il permet de tester une intuition, selon laquelle de â bonnes â stratĂ©gies de rĂ©munĂ©ration des politiciens permettent de limiter la corruption.This article intends to deal with "political" corruption. The particular problem is that, by definition, there is no hierarchical institution (superior to the top level of the State) which is able to control the last controller. The politico-economic model proposed in this article tries to challenge the problem, using a methodology derived from the economic analysis of social conflicts. Based on a voting mechanism of control, the model gives two equilibria: a "good one" (high growth, political stability, low corruption) and a "bad one" (the opposite...). Conditions for controlling corruption are then studied: a political wages strategy added to the voting mechanism gives better solutions
Aide au développement:Sommes-nous plus ou moins solidaires ?
Cet article propose un bilan de lâĂ©volution rĂ©cente de lâaide au dĂ©veloppement. Pour cela, il examine tout dâabord le montant global de lâaide et sa dĂ©composition en grands indicateurs traditionnels de qualitĂ© â aide non liĂ©e, aide multilatĂ©rale, etc. Lâarticle sâintĂ©resse aussi aux nouveaux objets de lâaide, en utilisant la notion de « biens publics mondiaux », qui sert dĂ©sormais de justification Ă lâaide internationale. Nous proposons ainsi un nouvel indicateur de qualitĂ© de lâaide, le « contenu en biens publics de lâaide ». Sur la dĂ©cennie 1990-2000, nous constatons une Ă©volution convergente des indicateurs de qualitĂ© vers une amĂ©lioration globale, compensant en partie la baisse quantitative des flux consĂ©cutive Ă la fin de la Guerre froide. Nous terminons lâarticle par une comparaison de la qualitĂ© de lâaide des Ătats-Unis, de la France et de la SuĂšde.This paper provides a summary of the recent evolution of development aid. First, it studies the global size of aid and some quality indicators: the proportion of untied aid, multilateral aid and grants in aid. The paper also explores the new types of aid linked to the concept of âworld public goodsâ: this concept has played recently an important role in legitimizing aid. The paper offers a new quality indicator for aid: its content in world public goods. From 1990 to 2001, it appears that even if the quantity of aid has declined following the end of the Cold War, its quality has increased irrespective of the measure selected. At the end of the paper we compare the quantity and quality of the foreign aid given by the US, Sweden and France in 1989 and 2001
Causality test between health care expenditure and GDP in US: comparing periods
In the literature dedicated to the "health as a luxury good" question, health care expenditure (HCE) is hypothesized to be a function of GDP without considering any other relationships. In this paper, we argue that this could be a bilateral relationship: good health is considered as an input of the macroeconomic production function, stimulating the GDP. A modified version of the Granger (1969) causality test proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) is investigated between GDP per capita and HCE per capita in United States for comparing the periods of 1965_1984, 1975_1994, 1985_2004 and 1965_2004. Results show these three periods have different causal relationships. At the beginning for 1965_1984, there exists a bilateral relationship. For the following period, there is a unidirectional relationship from HCE to GDP, and for the 1985_2004, a unidirectional GDP_HCE is significant. From the start to end of periods (1965_2004), a unidirectional relation from HCE to GDP is existed
Aide au développement : sommes-nous plus ou moins solidaires ?
'Development Aid: Are We Showing More Solidarity ? This paper provides a summary of the recent evolution of development aid. First, it studies the global size of aid and some quality indicators: the proportion of untied aid, multilateral aid and grants in aid. The paper also explores the new types of aid linked to the concept of 'world public goods': this concept has played recently an important role in legitimizing aid. The paper offers a new quality indicator for aid: its content in world public goods. From 1990 to 2001, it appears that even if the quantity of aid has declined following the end of the Cold War, ist quality has increased irrespective of the mesure selected. At the end of the paper we compare the quantity and quality of the foreign aid given by the US, Sweden and France in 1989 and 2001.
secteur de santé : éclairage sur des mesures techniques.
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Sida et développement : un enjeu mondial
Lâarticle propose une revue des dĂ©bats Ă©conomiques que suscite la pandĂ©mie de SIDA en Afrique, notamment les dĂ©bats portant sur lâaccĂšs restreint aux thĂ©rapeutiques brevetĂ©es et sur le droit international en matiĂšre de propriĂ©tĂ© intellectuelle (OMC, accords TRIPs). AprĂšs une rapide description de la maladie, de son Ă©pidĂ©miologie, et des traitements existants, il Ă©nonce les diffĂ©rentes formes dâimpact de
la maladie sur lâĂ©conomie et examine les Ă©tudes macroĂ©conomiques disponibles pour les pays africains. La mĂ©connaissance des aspects diffĂ©rĂ©s du choc, sur lâaccumulation de capital et sur lâĂ©ducation, peut avoir conduit les Ă©tudes Ă sous-estimer lâeffet de la maladie sur les mĂ©canismes de dĂ©veloppement de ces pays trĂšs pauvres. Ce constat, la gravitĂ© de la maladie, ainsi que lâobservation des formes concrĂštes de lâĂ©change international, plaident pour une intervention publique mondiale Ă deux niveaux : dâune part une rĂ©Ă©valuation critique de la lĂ©gislation sur la protection des droits de propriĂ©tĂ© intellectuelle, mise en place sous lâĂ©gide de lâOrganisation mondiale du commerce ; dâautre part la constitution dâun « fonds global » de connaissances et de moyens financiers, dans lequel les pays pauvres pourraient trouver les traductions
concrĂštes des solidaritĂ©s et dâune vĂ©ritable gouvernance mondiales
Get paid more, work more? Lessons from French physicians' labour supply responses to hypothetic fee increases
This paper is devoted to the analysis of the General Practitioners' (GPs) labour supply, specifically focusing on the physicians' labour supply responses to higher compensations. This analysis is mainly aimed at challenging the reality of a âbackward bending' form for the labour supply of GPs. Because GPs' fees only evolve very slowly and are mainly fixed by the National Health Insurance Fund, we designed a contingent valuation survey in which hypothetical fee increases are randomly submitted to GPs. Empirical evidence from 1,400 French GPs supports the hypothesis of a negative slope for the GPs' labour supply curve. Therefore, increasing the supply of physicians' services through an increase in fees is not a feasible policy.General practitioners; contingent valuation; price of leisure; labour supply; backward bending curve
Le secteur de santé : éclairage sur des mesures techniques
Sur la question de la dĂ©pense de santĂ©, les principaux partis politiques semblent en accord : on ne change rien, ou pas grand chose ; les difficultĂ©s vĂ©cues par le gouvernement JuppĂ© en 1995 expliquent en partie cet " affichage " quasi gĂ©nĂ©ral de la classe politique. Au-delĂ du consensus et des dĂ©clarations de principe (qualitĂ© des soins, grand respect des professions de santĂ©, meilleure coordination entre ville et hĂŽpital, prĂ©vention), c'est dans la nuance et par des mesures techniques que se distinguent les programmes. Il faut nĂ©anmoins y ĂȘtre attentif, car lorsqu'une mesure technique, comme le paiement Ă la pathologie, est susceptible de modifier le mode de fonctionnement d'un secteur reprĂ©sentant prĂšs de 5 % du PIB et des emplois français -- i.e. le secteur hospitalier français, un Ă©clairage et une Ă©valuation sont, au minimum, nĂ©cessaires. Au total, le secteur de la santĂ© reprĂ©sente prĂšs de 10 % du PIB et constitue un des trois postes de dĂ©penses les plus importants des mĂ©nages (...)
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